Start here if you're new
what it is
Chipotle sells fast custom Mexican meals through nearly 3,800 restaurants, with the business still overwhelmingly tied to the U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year Chipotle Mex. Gr made $11.9B in revenue. entrees was the main engine at $9.76B, or 82% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.4% last year. The miss landed while same-store sales had already been lower for five straight quarters.
what just happened
Chipotle's last reported quarter delivered $0.25 EPS, below the $0.29 estimate by 13.8%.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
70/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
32.9x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
64.5% return on capital — a money-printing machine
xvary composite: 67/100 — average
What they do
Chipotle sells fast custom Mexican meals through nearly 3,800 restaurants, with the business still overwhelmingly tied to the U.S.
You know the menu before you walk in. That matters when you need lunch in eight minutes. Chipotle has 3,697 U.S. restaurants and another 89 locations outside the U.S. or licensed, so convenience and repetition do the selling for it. Brand habit beats novelty when you are trying to feed 97,660 employees' worth of operating muscle every day.
How they make money
$11.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +5.4% last year
entrees
$9.76B
sides and add-ons
$0.83B
beverages
$0.71B
delivery and other
$0.60B
The products that matter
restaurant sales
Company-Operated Restaurants
$11.9B revenue
this is the business. the current snapshot data points to more than 3,000 locations generating the full $11.9B revenue base.
100% of revenue
unit-level profitability
Restaurant Economics
13.4% net margin
a 13.4% net margin on $11.9B in sales means the model is still unusually profitable for restaurants. that margin is the thing social-media complaints are actually threatening.
profit engine
capital efficiency
Reinvestment Playbook
53.5% return on capital
for every $1 reinvested, the company earns back about $0.54 in profit. you do not get a 53.5% return on capital by accident.
why the multiple stays high
Key numbers
64.5%
capital returns
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: Chipotle turns each dollar tied up in the business into about $0.65 of profit.
22.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the restaurants → so what: this chain keeps $22 on every $100 of sales before interest and taxes.
$19B
2029 sales goal
That is the projected 2029 revenue run rate, up from $11.9B today, so the thesis still depends on years of steady store and sales growth.
32.9x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with profit → so what: you are paying a premium for a restaurant chain that just missed earnings estimates.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- net profit margin 15.5% — keeps 16 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 64% — $0.64 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and net profit margin standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CMG 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,400.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Chipotle's last reported quarter delivered $0.25 EPS, below the $0.29 estimate by 13.8%.
The miss landed while same-store sales had already been lower for five straight quarters. That is the quiet part: investors are paying 32.9x earnings while traffic trust is still being rebuilt.
$8.9B
revenue
$0.25
eps
13.8%
surprise
the number that mattered
The key number was the 13.8% EPS miss, because premium restaurant stocks usually need clean execution, not excuses.
-
chipotle mexican grill is suffering from a perception problem.the predicament started in mid-2024 when a ‘‘tik tok’’ food influencer posted a video expressing disappointment with the amount of chicken in his bowl.
-
the video went viral, and a number of imitators also posted videos of disappointing meals.soon after, a wall street analyst conducted a test where he ordered 75 identical bowls across eight new york city locations. the test showed that there was massive inconsistency across the restaurants, with the largest bowl weighing in at 26.8 ounces while the smallest was 13.8 ounces.
-
since then, same-store sales have been lower for five-consecutive quarters, causing margin pressures.
-
the company is taking steps to address the issue.management has since implemented a strategy called ‘‘consistent generosity’’ where it has instructed restaurant teams to provide larger portions. at the same time, they have retrained staff across all of their locations with a focus on making sure all bowls are full.
-
chipotle is now tracking portion scores through internal guest surveys.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the top threat is portion inconsistency turning into a lasting value problem — specifically, customers deciding the bowl is not worth the premium price.
med
brand and traffic risk
Chipotle's premium pricing depends on customers trusting the experience. Viral complaints about skimpy bowls attack that trust directly.
If the perception problem lingers, it threatens the sales engine behind the full $11.9B revenue base.
med
margin giveback from larger portions
Management's fix is to be more generous. That may help traffic. It can also raise food costs if execution gets looser instead of more consistent.
A business earning a 13.4% net margin does not need a disaster to feel pressure. It just needs enough cost creep to chip away at the premium.
med
valuation risk
The stock trades at 32.9x trailing earnings after revenue grew 5.4% last year and trailed the market over three years. That is not a bargain setup.
If growth stays merely decent instead of clearly premium, the multiple can compress even if the business remains healthy.
This is a restaurant brand with elite returns on capital and a premium multiple. If portion consistency damages pricing power, both parts of that sentence get weaker fast.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
customer traffic after retraining
The retraining push only matters if fuller bowls bring people back. You want to see traffic respond, not just nicer internal memos.
metric
net margin vs. 13.4%
More generous portions can fix perception and hurt margins at the same time. That trade-off is now central to the story.
trend
institutional selling streak
Three straight quarters of net selling tells you large holders have questions. A reversal would matter more than another price-target tweak.
cal
next earnings update
That is the cleanest checkpoint for whether management fixed a social-media flare-up or exposed a deeper operating issue.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — middle of the pack. in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong near-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical stock risk, not a bunker and not a rollercoaster.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the tape is not giving you much help from here.
earnings predictability
70 / 100
earnings are reasonably forecastable, but not precise enough to ignore surprise risk.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 594 buyers vs. 885 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.2B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$33
$91
$39
current price
$62
target midpoint · +61% from current · 3-5yr high: $95 (+145% · 25% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive