Start here if you're new
what it is
Commercial Metals recycles scrap and makes steel products for builders and industrial customers.
how it gets paid
Last year Commercial Metals made -$48M in revenue.
what just happened
Commercial Metals posted $1.37 EPS, below the $1.46 bar.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
25.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 72/100 — average
What they do
Commercial Metals recycles scrap and makes steel products for builders and industrial customers.
You get 76% of sales from North America Group, 17% from Europe, and 7% from Construction Solutions. That spread keeps one weak market from owning the whole story. Foreign sales are 31% of total, so your results still move with tariffs and steel prices.
How they make money
-$48M
annual revenue
total revenue
-$48M
n/a
The products that matter
steel for residential construction
Residential Steel
over $1B annual
this segment is described as generating over $1B in annual revenue. that tells you housing and construction demand matter here. it also clashes with the broken total revenue field, so you should trust the direction of the story more than the segment precision.
core exposure
Key numbers
$99
target price
That is 24% above the current $79.64 price, so the upside is there but not huge.
25.4x
trailing p/e
You pay 25.4 years of trailing earnings for one year of profit. That is not cheap for a steel name.
19.0%
operating margin
CMC keeps 19 cents from every sales dollar after operating costs. That is strong for a cyclical business.
18.5%
return on capital
Every $100 tied up in the business has earned $18.50 in profit. That is why the model deserves respect.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $3.3B (27% of capital)
- net profit margin 12.0% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 25% — $0.25 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CMC 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,640.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Commercial Metals posted $1.37 EPS, below the $1.46 bar.
Yahoo Finance shows EPS of $1.37 versus $1.46 expected, a 6.16% miss. TTM revenue is $7.8B, so the business is still large enough to matter when steel pricing swings.
$7.8B
revenue
$1.37
eps
6.16%
surprise
EPS miss
The -6.16% miss mattered because CMC still trades at 25.4x trailing earnings.
-
commercial metals’ top line has taken a turn for the better.
-
net sales at the north america steel group segment have increased, thanks to a surge in the average selling price per ton for steel products.
-
this is attributable to tariff impacts on market pricing and resilient demand for steel offerings.net sales at the europe steel group segment have risen because of higher steel product shipment volumes.
-
commercial has renamed the emerging business group segment to construction solutions group.management believes this change better reflects the business composition and strategic priorities of the segment. results at this division have improved due to an uptick in net sales to external customers by cmc construction services. the overall top line should benefit from the recently completed acquisitions of foley products company and concrete pipe and precast.
-
commercial has applauded a preliminary ruling issued by the department of commerce.this ruling found that steel producers in algeria have been unfairly dumping rebar into the u.s. market.
source: latest quarterly report, Yahoo Finance consensus
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is u.s. construction demand and rebar spreads cooling at the same time.
high
construction demand rolls over
CMC sells into markets tied to building activity. if projects slow, volume drops and investor enthusiasm usually drops with it.
this hits the same earnings rebound that pushed the stock to 25.4x trailing earnings
med
steel and rebar pricing weakens
commodity producers do not get to name their price. if scrap costs stay firm while finished steel prices slip, the spread compresses.
direct pressure on the 9.4% net margin
med
$3.3B of debt gets louder in a downcycle
that debt load is manageable when earnings are healthy. if the cycle softens, balance-sheet flexibility matters more than the dividend story.
27% of capital is debt, so weaker profits tighten the margin for error
low
top-line visibility is weaker than it should be
the snapshot shows -$0.0B in annual revenue while a product card says over $1B. that is a feed problem, and it limits how precise you should be about segment mix.
lower confidence in revenue-level analysis until the feed cleans up
with $3.3B in long-term debt, a 9.4% net margin, and a valuation built on better earnings, CMC does not need a crisis to feel pressure — it just needs demand or spreads to cool.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
watch whether estimates stay near $7.00
that estimate is the market's shorthand for "the rebound is real." if it starts falling, the 25.4x trailing multiple gets harder to defend.
trend
follow rebar pricing and construction demand together
one without the other does not tell the full story. this business works best when volume and spreads cooperate.
risk
keep debt in the foreground if earnings cool
$3.3B in long-term debt is fine while profits rebound. if that $2.05 quarterly EPS pace fades, the balance sheet becomes the first debate.
calendar
next earnings need to confirm this was a turn, not a blip
with revenue detail thin, the next report has one job: prove the EPS rebound was the start of a trend.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 is the highest rating. in human-speak, analysts think CMC has a better near-term setup than almost everything else they cover.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means middle-of-the-road stock risk. not defensive, not chaos.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the chart is fine, not euphoric. for this stock, the cycle matters more than the squiggle.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
low predictability means surprise risk is real. with cyclicals, clean models age fast when demand changes.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 212 buyers vs. 176 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$63
$135
$80
current price
$99
target midpoint · +24% from current · 3-5yr high: $165 (+105% · 20% ann'l return)
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