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what it is
Cleveland-Cliffs mines iron ore and turns it into flat-rolled steel used by manufacturers, especially in the U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year Cleveland-Cliffs made $18.6B in revenue. Hot-rolled steel was the main engine at $7.3B, or 39% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.0% last year. On EPS, the print beat consensus: the company reported -$0.43 against a -$0.62 estimate.
what just happened
The latest quarter showed revenue of $4.313 billion and a loss of $0.43 a share, beating estimates.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
13.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
12.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 31/100 — weak
What they do
Cleveland-Cliffs mines iron ore and turns it into flat-rolled steel used by manufacturers, especially in the U.S.
Cleveland-Cliffs controls the rock and the furnace. It is the largest flat-rolled steel producer in the U.S. and North America’s largest iron ore pellet producer, and it feeds most of those pellets into its own mills. That vertical integration (owning your inputs) → fewer middlemen → more control when prices get ugly, which matters when annual revenue is still $18.6 billion.
How they make money
$18.6B
annual revenue · their business grew -3.0% last year
Hot-rolled steel
$7.3B
Coated steel
$4.1B
Cold-rolled steel
$3.7B
Stainless and electrical steel
$2.1B
Iron ore pellets and HBI
$1.4B
The products that matter
manufactures flat-rolled steel
Flat-rolled steel
$18.6B · essentially the whole story
It is the entire $18.6B business in this snapshot. The company kept 9.1% of revenue as net profit, which is decent for steel and still very exposed to the cycle.
15.5% operating margin
Key numbers
$7.3B
debt load
You are looking at a balance sheet where borrowings exceed the company’s roughly $6 billion stock market value. That is the story.
8.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Cleveland-Cliffs is losing money before interest and taxes.
$0.75
2027 profit view
Expected 2027 profit per share is just $0.75. Plain English: even the recovery case still looks thin next to today’s optimism.
55%
debt to capital
Debt to capital → how much of the company is financed by borrowing → so what: leverage is doing a lot of the lifting.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $7.3B (55% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.1% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 22% — $0.22 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — return on equity looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CLF 3 years ago → it's now worth $5,160.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
The latest quarter showed revenue of $4.313 billion and a loss of $0.43 a share, topping consensus.
The beat was meaningful on EPS. The company reported -$0.43 against a -$0.62 estimate, roughly a 30.6% beat versus consensus, after a weak year that ended with a $2.48 per-share loss.
$4.3B
revenue
-$0.43
eps
30.6%
vs estimate
the number that mattered
The key number was the -$0.43 quarterly loss, because it showed the hoped-for rebound still was not arriving in the income statement.
-
shares of cleveland-cliffs tumbled sharply following its fourth-quarter earnings report.
-
the stock is down about 30% in value since the company reported a weak top- and bottom-line result in the final stanza of 2025.the quarter’s sales landed at $4.3 billion, versus our expectation for $4.7 billion, while the loss per share was about a nickel worse than we had thought. the result marked the end of a decidedly negative full year, which was driven by significant market softness and pressure on earnings.
-
the stock had experienced a modest rally in late 2025, with investors assuming a market recovery was around the corner, the failure of which caused the recent price decline.
-
management’s guidance was probably not as encouraging as some had hoped.
-
in fact, following the report, we have lowered our outlook for full-year 2026.with that said, it should be noted that cleveland-cliffs holds low scores for stock’s price stability (10 of 100) and earnings predictability (15).
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The risk picture here is not abstract. CLF is carrying $7.3B of long-term debt inside a cyclical steel business that already saw revenue fall 3.0% last year.
high
debt load
Long-term debt is $7.3B, equal to 55% of capital. That is manageable in a decent market and painful in a weak one.
55% of capital is debt — leverage will amplify any operating miss
high
steel-cycle exposure
Revenue fell 3.0% to $18.6B and the snapshot shows essentially one business line. There is no software-style segment here to bail you out.
100% of the $18.6B revenue base is tied to the core steel business
med
earnings volatility
Earnings predictability is 15/100. In plain English: your valuation can look cheap one quarter and irrelevant the next.
low visibility makes the 13.8x trailing p/e less reassuring than it looks
med
strategic deal risk
Recent coverage around the U.S. Steel bid shows management is willing to think big. Big deals can help. They can also arrive before the balance sheet is ready.
capital allocation matters more when market value is only ~$6B
Between $7.3B of long-term debt, 15/100 predictability, and a business that already shrank 3.0%, CLF does not have much room for another bad steel cycle.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
debt as a share of capital
It is 55% right now. If that ratio does not improve, every cyclical wobble will keep hitting equity harder than it should.
trend
whether revenue gets back toward the $21B fiscal 2027 estimate
The forecast calls for about 13% growth from the current $18.6B base. That is the recovery path the stock needs.
risk
earnings quality, not just earnings level
A 13.8x trailing p/e looks cheap until the “e” moves around. The 15/100 predictability score says that happens a lot here.
calendar
the next management update on capital allocation
With no dividend and a leveraged balance sheet, you want to hear more about debt reduction than empire building.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
15 / 100
In human-speak: analysts do not trust this earnings stream to show up smoothly quarter after quarter.
risk rank
4
That means it screens as riskier than most stocks in the broader market. Not a bunker stock. Not close.
price stability
10 / 100
The stock has not earned the benefit of the doubt. You should expect a rougher ride than the index.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
245 buyers vs. 257 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$4
$15
$10
current price
$9
target midpoint · 13% from current · 3-5yr high: $25 (+140% · 26% ann'l return)
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