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what it is
C.H. Robinson arranges trucks, ships, planes, and produce for customers that need freight moved without owning most of the equipment.
how it gets paid
Last year C.H. Robinson made $16.2B in revenue. North American Surface Transportation was the main engine at $10.2B, or 63% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 8.4% last year. The real number is 0.0% surprise. CHRW matched estimates exactly.
what just happened
EPS came in at $1.23, exactly in line with estimates, while revenue was reported at $12.3B.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
39.0x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
1.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
47.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 73/100 — average
What they do
C.H. Robinson arranges trucks, ships, planes, and produce for customers that need freight moved without owning most of the equipment.
Non-asset based → it does not own most trucks or planes → so what: it can stay flexible when freight markets turn. That shows up in a 47% return on capital and just $1.2 billion of long-term debt, or 5% of capital. You are paying for a freight middleman with an A balance sheet, not a carrier stuffed with steel.
How they make money
$16.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -8.4% last year
North American Surface Transportation
$10.2B
6.0%
Global Forwarding
$3.4B
12.0%
Robinson Fresh
$1.8B
9.0%
Managed Solutions and Other
$0.8B
+2.0%
The products that matter
truck and rail freight brokerage
North America Surface Transportation
$8.1B revenue · 50% of sales
it's a $8.1B segment that does the core matching work between shippers and carriers across north america. when this business slows, you feel it everywhere else.
core driver
air and ocean freight forwarding
Global Forwarding
$2.8B revenue · 17% of sales
this $2.8B business gives you international exposure, but it also imports the volatility of global air and ocean pricing.
global exposure
outsourced logistics management
Managed Services
$2.6B revenue · 16% of sales
at $2.6B, this segment matters because it embeds robinson deeper into customer workflows. if they run your freight desk, switching gets harder.
stickier revenue
Key numbers
39.0x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → how much you pay for each dollar of profit → so what: you are paying a premium multiple for a freight broker.
47.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → so what: this asset-light model converts capital into earnings unusually well.
$1.2B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed beyond one year → so what: debt is only 5% of capital, which gives CHRW room if freight stays soft.
1.4%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → annual cash payout divided by stock price → so what: you get some cash back, but this is not a high-income story.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- long-term debt $1.2B (5% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.0% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 88% — $0.88 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CHRW 3 years ago → it's now worth $20,500.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
EPS came in at $1.23, exactly in line with estimates, while revenue was reported at $12.3B.
The quarter did not produce an estimate surprise, with actual EPS matching the $1.23 consensus. The broader setup still matters more: annual revenue was $16.2B, down 8.4% vs. prior year, even as 2025 full-year EPS reached $5.09 versus $4.51 in 2024.
$12.3B
revenue
$1.23
eps
0.0%
eps surprise
the number that mattered
The real number is 0.0% surprise. CHRW matched estimates exactly, which means the stock now needs better freight conditions, not just clean execution.
-
c.h.
-
robinson stock continues to reach new heights.
-
the shares are up 30% in price since our november report and have more than doubled in value since mid-2025.investors have responded strongly to the company’s ability to increase its market share and margins despite challenging conditions in freight markets.
-
against a backdrop of weak global freight demand, rising spot costs in the trucking business, and declining rates for ocean shipments, december-quarter earnings of $1.23 a share were up 2% from the prior-year period.
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workforce reductions are helping the company to overcome market headwinds.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is another leg down in freight demand and pricing.
high
freight recession and rate pressure
this is still a volume-and-pricing business. last year already showed the sensitivity: revenue fell 8.4% to $16.2B.
a recession could reopen the 20–35% drawdown risk
med
thin-margin economics
a 4.4% net margin means you keep about 4 cents on each dollar of revenue. small pricing mistakes or weaker carrier spreads can hit profits fast.
thin margins make earnings more volatile than the balance sheet suggests
med
valuation reset
the stock trades at 39.0x trailing earnings near a $198.50 price and the top of its 52-week range. if recovery stalls, the multiple can do the falling even if the balance sheet stays clean.
premium multiple + cyclical demand is not a forgiving mix
this is an A-balance-sheet company, not a recession-proof one. the debt load is manageable at $1.2B, but the income statement still moves with freight demand.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
North America Surface Transportation
it drives about 50% of revenue. if this segment turns, the company turns with it.
earnings
next earnings report
watch whether revenue is still falling from last year or whether the freight cycle finally starts helping instead of hurting.
risk
freight pricing
CHRW can execute well and still get dragged by weak rates. the cycle still gets a vote.
trend
EPS vs. revenue gap
EPS jumped 68% in Q4 while revenue fell 11%. if that gap closes because revenue improves, that's healthier than cost cuts doing all the work.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they still like the setup.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not unusually safe, but it is also not balance-sheet chaos.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the stock has run hard, and the chart suggests the easy part may already be behind you.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
earnings are harder to model here because freight markets swing. translation: expect a bumpier ride than the A balance sheet implies.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
313 buyers vs. 334 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$103
$240
$198
current price
$172
target midpoint · 13% from current · 3-5yr high: $250 (+25% · 7% ann'l return)
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