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what it is
CG Oncology is trying to turn one bladder cancer therapy into a real business before the FDA says yes.
how it gets paid
Last year Cg Oncology made $4M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 254.7% last year. Quarterly revenue grew 3% vs. prior year, while annual revenue reached $4 million, up 254.7%.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue reached $2M, but EPS fell to -$1.57, which tells you the business is still mostly burn with a little revenue attached.
At a glance
n/a balance sheet
-$1.41 fy2024 eps est
$1M fy2024 rev est
n/a operating margin
1.9 beta
xvary composite: 35/100 — weak
What they do
CG Oncology is trying to turn one bladder cancer therapy into a real business before the FDA says yes.
The pitch is focus. CG Oncology has 113 employees and is building around one lead bladder cancer program instead of spreading itself across ten science projects. You are betting that a single therapy for a painful niche market can matter more than the current $4 million revenue base suggests.
How they make money
$4M
annual revenue · their business grew +254.7% last year
total revenue
$4M
+254.7%
The products that matter
phase 3 bladder-cancer drug candidate
Cretostimogene Grenadenorepvec
one lead asset · one company story
it is the company's only clinical asset, and the target market already includes a J&J product projected at $4.7B in revenue. if this program works, it can justify the story. if it doesn't, there is not a second act in the numbers shown here.
binary setup
Key numbers
$6M
long-term debt
Debt is tiny versus a roughly $5 billion market cap. Translation: borrowing is not the near-term problem. So what: execution and cash burn matter more than leverage.
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. Operating margin → money left after running the business → here it is deeply negative. So what: this is still a cash-consuming clinical company.
$4M
annual revenue
Revenue → actual money coming in → it is tiny next to a roughly $5 billion valuation. So what: the stock price is paying for future approval, not current sales.
1.9
beta
Beta → how violently a stock moves versus the market → 1.9 is high. So what: your position size matters because this name can swing hard.
Financial health
n/a
strength
- balance sheet grade n/a
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $6M (0% of capital)
n/a — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for CGON right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
losses widened
Latest quarter revenue reached $2M, but EPS fell to -$1.57, which tells you the business is still mostly burn with a little revenue attached.
Quarterly revenue grew 3% vs. prior year, while annual revenue reached $4 million, up 254.7%. The quiet part out loud: sales are growing off a tiny base, and the loss profile still dominates the story.
$2M
revenue
$1.57
eps
+3%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
$2 million matters because it shows revenue exists, but the much bigger truth is that it is nowhere near enough yet to support a $5 billion market value.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is Phase 3 failure for cretostimogene grenadenorepvec.
med
the clinical thesis breaks in one event
The company generated $4M in trailing revenue and has one lead asset. A failed or weak Phase 3 outcome would not be a bump in the road. It would be the road.
A negative readout would directly challenge a valuation currently built on 1,325x sales.
med
J&J is already in the market
Johnson & Johnson already has an approved product in this category and projects $4.7B in revenue. Approval alone would not guarantee easy adoption, pricing power, or share.
Even a clinical win could still run into a tougher commercial setup than the valuation implies.
med
capital markets matter more than operations
With a -$1.41 EPS estimate, no dividend, and just $1M in expected 2024 revenue, operations are not funding development. If more capital is needed, shareholders should expect the market to matter.
For a pre-commercial biotech, dilution risk is not theoretical. It is part of the business model until a product exists.
med
volatility can become the story
Beta sits at 1.9 and price stability is 5 out of 100. Add in Braidwell's 1.4M-share sale and TD Asset Management cutting its position by 25.8%, and you have a stock that can trade on flows as much as fundamentals.
That can amplify upside into catalysts, but it can just as easily turn ordinary disappointment into a violent drawdown.
A forced reset in clinical expectations would hit 100% of the story, because 100% of the story sits on one asset.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the catalyst
phase 3 data readout
This is the binary event. A one-asset biotech at roughly $5B does not get to hide from its lead trial.
calendar
TD Cowen health care conference
CEO Arthur Kuan is scheduled to present on March 2, 2026. Watch for any change in tone around timing, enrollment, or competitive positioning.
street view
target drift versus fundamentals
The 18-analyst consensus target sits at $78.50, with a range of $60 to $108. If those numbers start coming down before the science changes, pay attention.
holder flow
whether specialist holders keep selling
Braidwell sold 1.4M shares in Q4 2025 and TD Asset Management cut 25.8% in Q3. More trimming would tell you this is still a trading vehicle for institutions, not a settled conviction name.
Analyst rankings
street target
$78.50
in human-speak, analysts think the stock has upside if the trial story holds together.
target range
$60–$108
That spread is wide. Even the bulls disagree on what success is worth.
coverage count
18
Plenty of analysts cover this name for a company with one lead asset. The attention is real. So is the event risk.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for CGON is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$54
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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