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what it is
Carlyle runs four divisions and oversees $441B for clients.
how it gets paid
Last year Carlyle made $4.8B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 11.9% last year. The $1.01 EPS print mattered because it came in 24.06% below the $1.33 estimate.
what just happened
Carlyle $1.01 EPS missed the $1.33 estimate.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
25.8x trailing p/e — priced about right
3.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
14.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 56/100 — below average
What they do
Carlyle runs four divisions and oversees $441B for clients.
Carlyle watches $441B in assets under management (client money it gets paid to oversee). You do not move $441B across 26 locations and five continents without paperwork, new fees, and a lot of grief. Global Credit is 45% of firm-wide assets, so one giant bucket carries most of the fee machine.
How they make money
$4.8B
annual revenue · revenue declined -11.9% last year
total revenue
$4.8B
11.9%
The products that matter
private equity fund management
Corporate Private Equity
$4.8B revenue · core business
it accounts for the reported $4.8B revenue base on this page, and that revenue still supported a 30.8% net profit margin despite the decline from last year.
profit engine
earnings power
capital-light fee model
25% ROE · 13.0% ROC
the key point is not product complexity. it is that a $24B market cap firm generated a 25% return on equity while earning 13 cents on each dollar of capital employed.
watch quality
Key numbers
$441B
AUM
AUM → client money it oversees → more assets mean more fee revenue.
25.8x
trailing P/E
P/E → price per dollar of profit → you are paying 25.8 years of last year's earnings.
3.0%
dividend yield
This is the cash payout rate. On a $65.81 stock, that is about $1.97 a year per share.
$97
target price
That is ’s 18-month target. From $65.81, it implies about 47% upside.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- net profit margin 31.4% — keeps 31 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 28% — $0.28 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and net profit margin standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CG 3 years ago → it's now worth $21,860.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Carlyle $1.01 EPS missed the $1.33 estimate.
EDGAR shows $2.9B of revenue and $1.22 EPS, while consensus showed $1.01 against a $1.33 estimate. The split is the whole story: headline revenue growth was huge, but profit landed below expectations.
$1.2B
revenue
$1.01
eps
45.5%
margin
the number that mattered
The $1.01 EPS print mattered because it came in 24.06% below the $1.33 estimate, even with $2.9B of revenue.
-
the carlyle group likely recorded solid fourth-quarter 2025 results.
-
revenues probably expanded to about $1.47 billion, aided by growth in assets under management, which reached a record $474 billion in the september period.the firm probably benefited from strength in its alpinvest and global credit segments, which have driven fee revenue growth. fundraising efforts were likely strong during the period, as investor demand for credit alternatives rose.
-
compensation costs were probably much higher due to greater performance-related expenses.overall, we estimate earnings per share reached $1.33 during the december period. we expect performance to improve in 2026. the private credit solutions offerings ought to help fundraising efforts, and deployment has risen considerably across the platform. we think the global wealth initiative will maintain traction, as expansion efforts have increased quarterly inflows to $3 billion. fortitude insurance operations should contribute to growth, particularly given the pipeline of reinsurance opportunities, including a $4 billion agreement with unum. transaction activity ought to accelerate as better market conditions allow for position sales, boosting performance fees, as the company has about $5 billion in announced exit transactions for the coming period. all told, we project 2026 full-year earnings per share of $5.20. Carlyle's long-term outlook will be driven by its transformation into a more diversified alternative asset manager. assets under management expansion will likely accelerate as institutional investors allocate more funds to alternative strategies, driving aum toward $1 trillion by decade's end.
-
global credit comprises 45% of firm-wide assets, and it ought to expand at a solid clip.
-
strategies covering europe and other areas should add to the total.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat is slower realizations and fundraising in a weak private-markets cycle.
high
realizations dry up
private equity firms look brilliant when assets can be sold. they look lumpy when exits freeze. Carlyle already posted an 11.9% revenue decline last year.
another weak exit market would pressure both fee momentum and performance-related income
high
earnings stay noisy
a 5/100 earnings predictability score is not a footnote. it is the business model warning label. quarter-to-quarter reported numbers can swing hard.
$0.3B estimated quarterly revenue after a much larger prior-year quarter shows how fast sentiment can flip
med
multiple compression
the stock sits near the top of its $33–$70 range. if the rebound narrative slips, valuation can compress before operating results improve.
that risk matters more with a below-average 56 / 100 composite score
with annual revenue already down 11.9%, a slower private-markets cycle would hit the exact earnings stream investors are paying up to recover.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
watch whether revenue stabilizes
annual revenue fell 11.9%. if that keeps sliding, the rebound case gets a lot less elegant.
trend
follow the institutional buying streak
institutions were net buyers for 3 straight quarters. if that reverses, pay attention.
risk
track earnings volatility, not just earnings size
5/100 predictability means a beat or miss can tell you more about timing than underlying health.
calendar
the next quarterly print matters more than usual
after a setup calling for $0.3B revenue and $1.35 EPS, the next report will shape whether the market sees a trough or just more noise.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this can lag from here even if the long-term setup survives.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is a normal risk profile for a cyclical financial, not a bunker stock.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not screaming anything dramatic right now.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
predictability that low means quarterly numbers can mislead you if you read them like a consumer staple.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 333 buyers vs. 226 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$57
$136
$66
current price
$97
target midpoint · +47% from current · 3-5yr high: $130 (+100% · 20% ann'l return)
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