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what it is
CF makes ammonia and other nitrogen products that farmers and industrial buyers need to grow crops and cut emissions.
how it gets paid
Last year Cf Industries made $7.1B in revenue. granular urea was the main engine at $2.1B, or 30% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 19.3% last year. The 23.92% EPS beat matters most because it shows CF still has pricing power even after a volatile fertilizer cycle.
what just happened
CF posted EPS of $2.59 versus a $2.09 estimate, a 23.92% beat.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
9.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 67/100 — average
What they do
CF makes ammonia and other nitrogen products that farmers and industrial buyers need to grow crops and cut emissions.
Nitrogen fertilizer is heavy, energy-hungry, and annoying to move long distances. CF has eight manufacturing facilities in North America and one in the U.K., so your corn belt customer does not need to wait on cargo ships to show up. That local footprint, plus a 38.5% operating margin, means CF is doing the basic stuff better than most companies do the glamorous stuff.
How they make money
$7.1B
annual revenue · their business grew +19.3% last year
granular urea
$2.1B
uan solution
$1.9B
ammonia
$1.6B
ammonium nitrate
$0.8B
other nitrogen and industrial products
$0.7B
The products that matter
manufactures nitrogen fertilizer inputs
ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers
$7.1B revenue · core business
it is effectively the whole $7.1B business on this page, which tells you this is a concentrated bet on nitrogen economics rather than a diversified portfolio story.
17.0% net margin
Key numbers
38.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: CF turns a commodity product into unusually fat profits.
9.3x
trailing p/e
P/E → price versus past earnings → so what: you are not paying a glamour-stock multiple for this cash flow.
$3.0B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → what the company owes over years → so what: leverage exists, but at 19% of capital it is contained.
$8.10
fy2026 eps
EPS estimate → profit per share expected next year → so what: current pricing implies a forward multiple under 10 if estimates hold.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $3.0B (19% of capital)
- net profit margin 15.5% — keeps 16 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 22% — $0.22 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CF 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,930.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
CF posted EPS of $2.59 versus a $2.09 estimate, a 23.92% beat.
The company keeps converting favorable nitrogen pricing into real profit. EDGAR-backed annual revenue was $7.1B, up 19.3% vs. prior year, with gross margin at 37.6%.
$7.1B
revenue
$2.59
eps
37.6%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 23.92% EPS beat matters most because it shows CF still has pricing power even after a volatile fertilizer cycle.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is natural gas and nitrogen price swings.
high
natural gas and nitrogen price swings
cf buys a key input and sells a commodity output. when that spread narrows, earnings can fall fast.
this directly pressures a business that posted a 17.0% net margin on $7.1B in revenue.
med
cyclical demand from global agriculture
farm economics matter. if crop prices weaken or growers cut application rates, fertilizer demand and realized pricing can soften together.
with earnings predictability at 40/100, the market is already warning you this is not a smooth quarter-to-quarter story.
med
environmental and permitting costs
ammonia production is energy-intensive and heavily regulated. tougher emissions rules or slower permits can raise costs even when demand is intact.
$3.0B of long-term debt is manageable now, but higher compliance spending leaves less room for error in a downturn.
if the spread between input costs and fertilizer pricing compresses, a stock that looks cheap at 9.3x earnings can stop looking cheap very quickly.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
EPS versus the $1.75 estimate
that is the cleanest read on whether the cycle is still throwing off the kind of profit this multiple implies.
trend
revenue growth staying above zero
last year was +19.3%. if that rolls over, the market will treat 9.3x earnings as a warning label, not a bargain.
risk
margin pressure from gas and fertilizer pricing
17.0% net margin is healthy. the whole story changes if input costs rise faster than selling prices.
calendar
another quarter of institutional selling or a reversal
356 buyers versus 385 sellers is not dramatic, but a third straight quarter would tell you the hesitation is persistent.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance over the next year. in human-speak, they think the setup is better than the stock chart looks.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is neither a bunker stock nor a disaster waiting to happen. it sits in the middle, which fits a cyclical producer.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the stock's trading pattern has been better than average lately, even if the three-year return still trails the market.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
earnings predictability this low means the next few quarters matter more than the long-term story investors tell themselves.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 356 buyers vs. 385 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$65
$135
$79
current price
$100
target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $175 (+120% · 24% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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