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what it is
Century makes primary aluminum, plus the carbon inputs smelters need, from plants in the U.S., Iceland, the Netherlands, and China.
how it gets paid
Last year Century Aluminum made $2.5B in revenue. Iceland smelter was the main engine at $0.90B, or 36% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 13.9% last year. Demand for aluminum remains strong, particularly in the u.s.
what just happened
The quarter's loudest number was a 50.6% earnings surprise versus consensus expectations.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
15.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
24.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 46/100 — below average
What they do
Century makes primary aluminum, plus the carbon inputs smelters need, from plants in the U.S., Iceland, the Netherlands, and China.
Aluminum is a scale and power-cost business. Century has four smelters with 1,016,000 tonnes of annual capacity, plus its own carbon anode assets, so you are not relying on outside suppliers for every critical input. That matters because return on capital is 24.5%, while operating margin is only 6.3%—thin margins punish weaker operators fast.
How they make money
$2.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +13.9% last year
U.S. smelter 1
$0.53B
U.S. smelter 2
$0.53B
U.S. smelter 3
$0.54B
Iceland smelter
$0.90B
The products that matter
smelts and sells aluminum
Primary Aluminum
$2.5B revenue · 100% of business
it's the entire $2.5B business, which means there is no hidden growth engine if aluminum pricing weakens.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
15.3x
trailing p/e
P/E → price divided by past earnings → so what: at 15.3x, you are not paying a bubble multiple for a stock with 24.5% return on capital.
24.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → so what: Century earns far more on each dollar invested than its 6.3% operating margin suggests.
59.0%
top customer
Customer concentration → how much one buyer matters → so what: one relationship drives more than half of sales, which can overpower every other good number here.
2.05
beta
Beta → how violently a stock moves versus the market → so what: if the market has a bad day, this stock often tries to make it a hobby.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $479M (14% of capital)
- net profit margin 11.6% — keeps 12 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 32% — $0.32 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CENX 3 years ago → it's now worth $42,710.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
The quarter's loudest number was a 50.6% earnings surprise versus consensus expectations.
Consensus data shows last earnings at $1.25 versus a $0.83 estimate. Filing data separately shows latest-quarter revenue of $1.9B, up 200% vs. prior year, with EPS of $0.40 and gross margin of 4.0%, so the revenue rebound was real even if the reported EPS figures differ by source.
$1.9B
revenue
$0.40
eps
4.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Revenue jumping 200% vs. prior year matters most because this company lives and dies by aluminum pricing and shipment economics, not by tidy recurring sales.
-
we have cut our 2025 earnings estimate for century aluminum by $0.20, to $2.05 a share.indeed, the company reported adjusted third-quarter profits of $0.56 a share, well below both our estimate and the consensus.
-
this marks the third-consecutive quarter where results were below wall street expectations.
-
revenues of $632 million were essentially flat with the second-quarter tally, but were up 17% vs. prior year.strong pricing, driven by a large jump in the midwest premium was enough to offset production headwinds that plagued the company throughout the period.
-
shipments declined 7% sequentially.the grundartangi smelter in iceland suffered two transformer failures that put a kink into its production. line 2 at the plant remains down and it could take 11 to 12 months for replacement transformers to be installed. in the meantime, the company is looking into repairing the damaged transformers to use while waiting for the new ones to arrive. meanwhile, the mount holly facility in south carolina experienced a period of operational instability, which hurt production to the tune of 4,000 tonnes. the problems were resolved by mid-october, however, and the plant is back to operating at normal production levels.
-
we have increased our 2026 earnings estimate by $0.60, to $3.30.demand for aluminum remains strong, particularly in the u.s. and europe (century’s key markets) and supply remains tight, thanks to tariffs that make importing the metal expensive. worldwide production is also being hamstrung as china (the world’s largest producer) is nearing its annual production cap of 45 million tons, and plans to build new smelters in indonesia face setbacks due to high energy costs and regulatory hurdles.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is aluminum price and midwest premium weakness. this company sells one commodity through three smelters, so pricing pressure hits the whole story fast.
high
aluminum price and premium weakness
100% of revenue comes from primary aluminum. if realized pricing rolls over, the entire $2.5B revenue base feels it.
direct pressure on revenue, margins, and the $3.30 EPS setup
med
smelter execution risk
Century runs three u.s. smelters. production pressure already showed up in the recent period, and this is not a business with much room to hide operational misses.
cost overruns or downtime would hit earnings faster than revenue
med
estimate volatility
2025 EPS was cut by $0.20 after a soft quarter, then 2026 was raised by $0.60. that's a reminder that the earnings path here is not smooth.
15/100 predictability means revisions can move the stock as much as results
med
policy support fading
part of the current optimism comes from tariffs making imported metal expensive. if that support changes, the pricing backdrop gets less friendly.
would weaken one of the clearest supports behind recent estimate upgrades
this is a simple risk picture: one product, $2.5B of revenue, low predictability, and a stock that already scores 5/100 on price stability.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
watch whether $3.30 EPS holds
the estimate was just raised by $0.60. if analysts start walking it back, the market will notice before the income statement does.
trend
follow aluminum prices and the midwest premium
management can run the plants well, but the metal still sets the tone. this is the main driver behind revenue and margin swings.
risk
look for more production pressure
recent commentary already flagged operational pressure. if that continues, pricing strength may not fully reach earnings.
calendar
next earnings matters more than usual
with predictability at 15/100 and the stock near its 52-week high, one quarter can rewrite the story quickly.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a normal setup here, not a strong near-term signal.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — this stock is more volatile than most. you should expect wider swings than the market.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — neither a breakout story nor a collapse signal. the chart is mostly following the commodity tape.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
earnings predictability this low means estimates are fragile. that's the trade-off for owning a cyclical producer after a big run.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 146 buyers vs. 112 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 97.3M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$69
$31
current price
$43
target midpoint · +37% from current · 3-5yr high: $60 (+90% · 18% ann'l return)
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