XVARY Composite Score
56
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Celcuity develops cancer drugs, led by gedatolisib.
How it gets paid
Last year Celcuity made n/a in revenue. Breast cancer lead indication was the main engine at $0M, or 40% of sales.
What just happened
The latest quarter printed -$2.81 EPS, and TTM revenue stayed at $0M.
At a Glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
-$2.83 fy2024 eps est
0.8 beta
~$5B market cap
XVARY composite: 56/100 — below average
What They Do
Celcuity develops cancer drugs, led by gedatolisib.
Gedatolisib hits Class I PI3K isoforms plus mTORC1/2. That is cell-growth wiring, not one switch. The FDA accepted the NDA in January 2026, so you have a filing date, not a pitch deck.
How They Make Money
n/a
annual revenue
Breast cancer lead indication
$0M
Expanded breast cancer use
$0M
Other solid tumors
$0M
Pipeline and preclinical work
$0M
The Products That Matter
Lead oncology drug candidate
Gedatolisib
Phase 3 trial · only clinical asset
it is the only clinical-stage asset on the page, and the market is assigning roughly $5B of equity value to that single Phase 3 bet. That's concentration risk with a ticker symbol.
binary catalyst
Key Numbers
-$2.83
fy2024 eps est
n/a
fy rev est
n/a
trailing p/e
n/a
dividend yield
Financial Health
B
Strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $320M (6% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
missed estimates
The latest quarter printed -$2.81 EPS, and TTM revenue stayed at $0M.
That is a cash-burning biotech, not a sales business. The January 2026 NDA filing is the only near-term milestone in the data.
$0M
revenue
-$2.81
eps
n/a
n/a
eps loss
The -$2.81 EPS loss says costs are still outrunning sales, because sales are still $0M.
source: EDGAR latest quarter
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is Gedatolisib Phase 3 failure or delay — because Celcuity has $0 revenue, one core asset, and a ~$5B valuation already leaning hard on success.
High
Gedatolisib clinical failure
Gedatolisib is the entire equity story. If the Phase 3 program fails, the company still has $0 revenue and the current ~$5B valuation loses its foundation in one move.
exposes the full equity case
High
Pre-revenue valuation compression
A ~$5B market cap on $0 revenue means the stock already discounts a lot of future success. Even a delay, not just a failure, can make investors pay less for the same distant payoff.
pressures the speculative premium
Med
Cash burn and future dilution
Quarterly net loss reached $44M and cash stands at $455M. That funds progress today, but it does not make financing risk disappear if development costs keep rising.
could raise capital pressure
Med
Volatility around sparse fundamentals
The stock moved between $8 and $120 in 52 weeks and carries a 5 / 100 price stability score. When there is no revenue base to anchor value, sentiment can hit the stock harder than fundamentals.
raises drawdown risk
With $0 revenue and one core asset, almost all of the current ~$5B equity value is exposed to clinical timing, clinical outcome, or financing pressure.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Catalyst
Q4 2025 earnings report
Scheduled for March 18, 2026. You want a cleaner read on Gedatolisib timing and whether losses are still accelerating from the current $44M quarterly level.
Binary risk
Gedatolisib Phase 3 data path
This is the event that matters. Interim or final data can reshape a ~$5B story very quickly, and no confirmed date means timing risk is part of the trade.
Financial
Cash versus burn
Watch the $455M cash balance against the $44M quarterly loss. In human-speak: runway matters almost as much as trial design when revenue is still $0.
Valuation
The gap between model upside and current proof
A prior SWS DCF model cited $524.37 per share versus a recent close of $107.59. That upside case explains the excitement. The catch is unchanged: clinical proof still has to show up.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
65 / 100
in human-speak, analysts can model the losses better than they can model the outcome. that's normal when revenue is $0 and the thesis sits inside one trial.
beta
0.8
on paper, the stock has moved a bit less than the market. in practice, one clinical headline can matter more than a year of beta math.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for CELC is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$113
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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