Start here if you're new
what it is
Cadiz owns California desert land, farms some of it, and is trying to turn underground water into a much bigger business.
how it gets paid
Last year Cadiz made $10M in revenue. agriculture operations was the main engine at $4.0M, or 40% of sales.
what just happened
Cadiz posted $11M in quarterly revenue, but EPS still came in at -$0.35, which keeps the core problem the same.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
75/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
28.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
-$0.53 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
xvary composite: 43/100 — below average
What they do
Cadiz owns California desert land, farms some of it, and is trying to turn underground water into a much bigger business.
Cadiz controls 45,000 acres in eastern San Bernardino County near Southern California water infrastructure. That matters because water access is local and regulation-heavy, so owning the land on top of the aquifer is the asset. You are not buying a software app here. You are buying a scarce physical position next to the Colorado River Aqueduct.
How they make money
$10M
annual revenue
agriculture operations
$4.0M
land and water leases
$2.0M
water supply development
$1.5M
storage and conservation projects
$1.5M
other property-related revenue
$1.0M
The products that matter
project development
water supply & storage
planned up to 50,000 acre-feet annually
this is the entire story. the planned project could supply up to 50,000 acre-feet of water a year, but that future capacity has not yet turned into a scaled operating business.
thesis driver
agricultural leasing
land management
45,000 acres
the land position is real. it spans 45,000 acres, but leasing revenue is still small enough to sit inside just $16M of trailing total revenue.
asset base
subsidiary operations
ATEC water filtration
revenue not broken out
this filtration business adds operating activity, but management does not break out its revenue inside the company’s $16M trailing total. that tells you the core valuation still rests elsewhere.
small today
Key numbers
-$0.53
fy2024 eps est
$2B
fy2026 rev est
28.7x
trailing p/e
n/a
dividend yield
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $90M (17% of capital)
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for CDZI right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Cadiz posted $11M in quarterly revenue, but EPS still came in at -$0.35, which keeps the core problem the same.
Revenue rose 171% vs. prior year in the latest quarter, but the company still lost money. Quiet part loud: growth without profit is just a more expensive way to stay unprofitable.
$11M
revenue
$0.35
eps
+171%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was -$0.35 EPS, because even after revenue jumped to $11 million, Cadiz still did not show an operating model that works.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is cadiz water project permitting and financing.
high
permitting and regulatory delay
the core water supply thesis depends on winning approvals and then actually building infrastructure in california. if those milestones slip, the value of the planned 50,000 acre-feet opportunity stays theoretical.
impact: this risk hits the core thesis, not a side segment.
high
chronic unprofitability
cadiz posted a -242.0% operating margin and a $33M net loss on $16M of trailing revenue. losses have persisted for at least seven consecutive years. that is not a temporary dip. it is the current business profile.
impact: ongoing losses raise the odds of new financing on terms existing shareholders may not like.
med
balance sheet strain
the company carries $90M of long-term debt and a C++ balance sheet grade. debt equal to 17% of capital is manageable for a profitable operator. cadiz is not that.
impact: funding the story may require more debt, more equity dilution, or both.
med
expectations outrunning the base business
the page shows a $2B fy2026 revenue estimate against a current $10M annual revenue base. that kind of forecast gap can create violent repricing if commercial progress arrives slower than hoped.
impact: the multiple can compress long before the project thesis is fully resolved.
100% of the upside case depends on turning a $10M–$16M revenue base into a real water infrastructure business while carrying $90M of debt and ongoing losses.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
core risk
permitting progress on the water project
this is the main catalyst because the investment case rests on getting the core project approved and financed. without that, the 50,000 acre-feet story stays a slide, not a business.
metric
operating margin improving from -242.0%
you do not need profitability tomorrow. you do need proof that each new dollar of revenue is not arriving with even larger losses attached.
calendar
next filing for cash burn and financing clues
the next quarterly report matters less for headline revenue and more for liquidity, debt, and whether another capital raise looks likely.
trend
whether trailing revenue keeps rising above $16M
a move above the current trailing level would not prove the bull case. it would at least show the business is becoming more than land, permits, and future projections.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
75 / 100
in human-speak: the numbers have been consistently weak rather than wildly erratic. that helps forecasting, but it does not make the business healthy.
risk rank
3
this score says the stock screens around the middle of the pack on one risk system. your real risk still comes from execution, financing, and permits.
price stability
5 / 100
that is low. in plain english: the stock does not behave like a stable utility. it trades like a speculative project story.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for CDZI is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$5
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive