Start here if you're new
what it is
CareDx sells transplant tests and software that help doctors track organ rejection before and after surgery.
how it gets paid
Last year Caredx made $380M in revenue. AlloSure Kidney was the main engine at $190M, or 50% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 13.8% last year. The $271M quarter matters because it shows demand scaled hard.
what just happened
Q4 revenue hit $271M, and EPS stayed negative at -$0.32.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$0.74 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
8.1% operating margin
xvary composite: 47/100 — below average
What they do
CareDx sells transplant tests and software that help doctors track organ rejection before and after surgery.
CareDx brought in $380M of revenue against $21M of long-term debt. That is 18x more sales than debt. You are not buying a one-off lab test; you are buying a transplant workflow, the daily care process around a patient. Leaving is painful because hospitals have to change records, routines, and billing around you.
How they make money
$380M
annual revenue · their business grew +13.8% last year
AlloSure Kidney
$190M
+14.0%
AlloMap Heart
$90M
+10.0%
AlloSure Heart
$40M
+18.0%
AlloSure Lung
$20M
+20.0%
Digital solutions and other
$40M
+25.0%
The products that matter
transplant rejection monitoring test
AlloSure Kidney
flagship clinical assay
it sits inside a business that produced $380M in revenue last year, and kidney monitoring remains one of the core reasons this company exists.
flagship test
clinical lab testing
Testing Services
$380M revenue base
this is the engine behind the current revenue base, and it helped drive 13.8% growth last year.
core revenue
clinical data and analytics platform
VANTx™
launched march 2026
it launched in March 2026 as CareDx tries to reach $420M–$444M in revenue this year, but the snapshot does not break out an expected dollar contribution.
new platform
Key numbers
-$0.74
fy2024 eps est
$2B
fy2026 rev est
n/a
trailing p/e
n/a
dividend yield
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $21M (2% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for CDNA right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Q4 revenue hit $271M, and EPS stayed negative at -$0.32.
Revenue was up 171% vs. prior year. Gross margin on 2025 results was 69.3%, so the business has scale, but not enough yet to print profit.
$103M
revenue
-$0.32
eps
69.3%
gross margin
revenue
The $271M quarter matters because it shows demand scaled hard, yet the company still lost $0.32 a share.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is Medicare reimbursement pressure on transplant testing. CareDx already expects a $7.5M revenue hit in 2026, which tells you this is not a hypothetical problem.
high
Medicare reimbursement cuts
Management projects a $7.5M revenue headwind in 2026 from policy changes. On a $380M business, that is roughly a 2% drag on the top line.
direct pressure on the core testing business
med
Pipeline monetization risk
New products like VANTx™ and programs like AlloHeme need to become revenue, not just slides in a deck. The snapshot gives launch and pipeline context, but not segment dollars yet.
growth could look thinner than the story suggests
med
Execution against 2026 guidance
The company guided to $420M–$444M in revenue and $30M–$45M in adjusted EBITDA. Missing either would hit the growth story and the margin story at the same time.
the market may stop paying for the recovery narrative
low
stock volatility
A 1.65 beta and a 5 / 100 price stability score mean you should expect sharp moves. This is not the kind of stock that drifts quietly between earnings.
even good fundamentals can come with bad tape action
to hit even the low end of guidance, CareDx needs to add about $40M of revenue over last year's $380M while first absorbing a $7.5M pricing headwind.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
revenue versus the $420M floor
The low end of guidance is the line that matters. If quarterly results stop pointing toward at least $420M, the 2026 thesis weakens fast.
risk
Medicare reimbursement follow-through
The current expected hit is $7.5M. Watch whether that number stays there, grows, or gets offset elsewhere in the business.
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings
This is your first real read on whether Q4's 25% growth was momentum or just a strong quarter. Guidance only matters if the first quarter supports it.
trend
new product revenue disclosure
VANTx™ launched in March 2026, but the page still lacks a revenue breakout. The first time management quantifies adoption, the story gets more real.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
40 / 100
Low predictability means estimates are less dependable than you want. In human-speak, analysts do not see this as a clean, easy-to-model story.
average analyst target
$24.80
Against a $20.80 stock price, that implies about 19% upside. That's a vote for execution improving from here, not a guarantee.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for CDNA is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$21
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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