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what it is
Carnival sells cruises and shore trips through 8 brands and 91 ships.
how it gets paid
Last year Carnival made $26.6B in revenue. Cruise fares was the main engine at $15.8B, or 59% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 6.4% last year. Demand remained a key driver, and cost controls continued to improve, allowing profitability to expand despite modest top-line variance.
what just happened
Carnival beat estimates with $0.34 a share, above the $0.24 guess.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
14.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 48/100 — below average
What they do
Carnival sells cruises and shore trips through 8 brands and 91 ships.
You are buying 91 ships and 260,000 lower berths (beds). That scale fills cabins better than a smaller line can. Record customer deposits of $7.2B mean people pay before the ship leaves port.
How they make money
$26.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +6.4% last year
Cruise fares
$15.8B
+13.0%
Onboard spending
$7.4B
+15.0%
Shore excursions
$1.8B
+12.0%
Tour operations
$0.9B
+9.0%
Other revenue
$0.7B
+6.0%
The products that matter
mass-market cruise vacations
Carnival Cruise Line
largest volume brand · part of an eight-brand portfolio
this is the volume engine inside a $26.6B company. If pricing or occupancy weakens here, the whole recovery feels it.
volume driver
premium and luxury itineraries
Princess, Holland America, Cunard, Seabourn
mix matters more than fleet size
higher-ticket brands matter because 11.7% net margin is decent, not lavish. Better pricing is how you create room to work down $25.1B in debt.
pricing mix
onboard spend and ancillary sales
tickets are only the start
profit story, not just a seat-filling story
the company keeps 11.7 cents of every revenue dollar after costs. That makes onboard spend important because modest margin gains matter a lot in a debt-heavy business.
margin lever
Key numbers
$26.6B
ttm revenue
That is the whole sales pool. It gives the debt and margin numbers their scale.
$25.1B
long-term debt
That is 40% of capital, so lenders get a big claim before shareholders do.
24.0%
operating margin
That means 24 cents of every revenue dollar stayed after running the business.
1.9%
dividend yield
You get $1.90 a year for every $100 invested, which is not much cushion for a volatile stock.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $25.1B (40% of capital)
- net profit margin 13.4% — keeps 13 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 33% — $0.33 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — return on equity looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CCL 3 years ago → it's now worth $30,750.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Carnival beat estimates with $0.34 a share, above the $0.24 guess.
Revenue was $6.33B. Record customer deposits of $7.2B mean more cash was booked before the next sailing.
$6.33B
revenue
$0.34
eps
41.7%
surprise
customer deposits
The $7.2B deposit pile matters because it is cash already in hand before the ship leaves port.
-
carnival corp. turned in another strong quarter to close fiscal 2025, extending a run of steady operational execution and firm demand trends.
-
fourth-quarter earnings of $0.34 per share exceeded our estimate by a wide margin, while revenue of $6.33 billion came in slightly below expectations but still rose nearly 7% vs. prior year.demand remained a key driver, and cost controls continued to improve, allowing profitability to expand despite modest top-line variance.
-
record customer deposits of $7.2 billion underscore sustained booking momentum and healthy pricing across itineraries.
-
operational trends remain favorable heading into the new year.
-
in the quarter, net yields advanced from a year ago, while unit costs excluding fuel rose at a slower pace than anticipated, aided by efficiency gains and timing benefits.
source: company earnings report, fiscal 2025 Q4
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is booking softness hitting a debt-heavy recovery.
high
debt and refinancing pressure
$25.1B in long-term debt is manageable only if bookings and pricing keep cooperating. A cyclical vacation business does not get much grace when demand cools.
40% of capital is debt-backed, so weaker demand would pressure both earnings and deleveraging.
high
recession and discretionary travel pullback
cruises are a want, not a utility bill. If consumers trim vacation budgets, carnival feels it across the whole fleet.
this risk sits under the full $26.6B revenue base.
med
fuel, labor, and operating cost inflation
an 11.7% net margin is respectable, not untouchable. Higher operating costs erode that quickly in a ship-heavy business.
small margin damage matters more when debt already narrows the cushion.
med
operational or brand disruption
health events, itinerary changes, weather disruptions, or a high-profile onboard incident do not stay isolated for long in a global cruise operator.
you have eight brands, but reputational damage rarely respects brand boundaries.
with $25.1B in long-term debt against $26.6B in annual revenue, carnival has less room for a booking wobble than its three-year stock chart implies.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
debt paydown has to keep moving
$25.1B in long-term debt is still the number that runs the story. If that stops trending down, the recovery case gets thinner fast.
metric
watch the $2.55 EPS estimate
estimate revisions tell you whether the street still sees better pricing and fuller ships, or whether the recovery is flattening out.
calendar
next earnings need steady, not spectacular
the market is looking for $8.2B revenue and $0.40 EPS. Hitting those numbers matters more than upbeat language.
trend
institutions are buying a stock analysts still price below market
big money has been adding shares for three straight quarters while the source midpoint target sits at $28 versus a $31.61 stock. One side is early or one side is wrong.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a market performer, not a clean leader.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — this stock swings more than most, which is what debt-heavy cyclicals do.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is constructive, but not sending an unusual signal.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
expect surprises. Low predictability means a small miss can feel larger than the business change underneath.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 534 buyers vs. 349 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.9B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$13
$42
$32
current price
$28
target midpoint · 11% from current · 3-5yr high: $55 (+75% · 14% ann'l return)
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