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what it is
Commerce Bancshares is a regional bank that sells checking, loans, mortgages, cards, and wealth services across 5 states.
how it gets paid
Last year Commerce Bancsh made n/a in revenue. Retail banking was the main engine at n/a, or 20% of sales.
what just happened
Fourth quarter EPS came in at $1.01, a penny below the $1.02 estimate.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
75/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
13.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
xvary composite: 65/100 — average
What they do
Commerce Bancshares is a regional bank that sells checking, loans, mortgages, cards, and wealth services across 5 states.
This bank wins by being dull where you want dull. Nonperforming assets were just 0.09% at 12/31/25, against a 1.01% loan loss reserve, which means bad loans are tiny and the cushion is larger. You are paying for consistency too: the stock carries a 90 out of 100 price stability score and a beta of 1.0.
How they make money
n/a
annual revenue
Retail banking
n/a
Mortgage banking
n/a
Corporate banking
n/a
Trust services
n/a
Asset management
n/a
The products that matter
deposits and consumer lending
Personal Banking
core franchise · revenue breakout not disclosed here
this is the everyday bank book. the snapshot does not break out its revenue, which tells you where the cleaner stock story is not. You own this for stability, not for a hidden growth engine.
core franchise
trust and private banking
Wealth Management
37% of fee revenue · $529M acquisition
this is the strategic piece. trust already accounts for 37% of fee revenue, and Commerce paid $529M for FineMark to expand wealth and private banking. The stock does not need this segment to dominate. It needs it to matter more.
strategic focus
commercial loans and treasury services
Business Banking
rate-sensitive · four SOFR floors
this is where rate sensitivity shows up most clearly. management uses four 1-month SOFR floor contracts to hedge floating-rate loan exposure. Hedge is the jargon. In human-speak: they bought some cushioning, not immunity.
rate watch
Key numbers
13.8x
trailing p/e
You are paying 13.8 times trailing earnings for a bank with 6.0% projected earnings growth. Cheap enough to care, not cheap enough to ignore misses.
0.09%
bad assets
Nonperforming assets at 0.09% say the loan book is very clean right now. That is the quiet part of the story.
14%
return on equity
Return on equity measures profit on shareholder money. Plain English: this bank turns every $100 of equity into $14 of annual profit.
2.2%
dividend yield
You get paid 2.2% to wait while earnings move from $3.89 in 2025 toward $4.40 by 2027.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- return on equity 14% — $0.14 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CBSH 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,820.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Fourth quarter EPS came in at $1.01, a penny below the $1.02 estimate.
The miss was tiny. The bigger point is that 2025 still finished at $3.89 versus $3.69 in 2024, helped by balance sheet growth, lower funding costs, and momentum in fee businesses.
$0
revenue
$1.01
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
Full-year EPS rose to $3.89 from $3.69. That 5.4% gain matters more than a 1-cent quarterly miss.
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commerce bancshares closed out 2025 on a positive note.
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the kansas city-based bank delivered record revenues in the fourth quarter, driven by strong performance across both net interest income and noninterest income.
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results were supported by a combination of balance sheet growth, reduced funding costs, and continued momentum within its core trust business (currently accounts for about 37% of fee revenue).altogether, this punctuated an impressive year in which commerce posted new bests across several key operating metrics, most earnings per share and net income.
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we believe the company is in a good position to keep the ball rolling in 2026 (more below).
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acquisition-related contributions should provide a boost this year.commerce completed its $529 million purchase of finemark holdings on january 1st, expanding its wealth management and private banking footprint in florida, arizona, and south carolina.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the main risk is specific, not generic: Commerce spent $529M to make the bank more fee-driven. If FineMark does not move the mix, you are left with the same bank and a bigger bill.
high
FineMark integration
Commerce spent $529M on FineMark and closed the deal on 2026-01-01. that is a real strategic swing for a $7B bank.
if the acquisition does not deepen wealth relationships or hold onto client assets, the fee-income upgrade story gets thinner fast.
med
funding optics still matter
debt-to-equity sits at 763%. for banks, that number is structurally noisy because liabilities do most of the funding work, but confidence is still the business.
if deposit costs rise or investors stop rewarding the A balance sheet, the stock can stay cheap even if operating results look fine.
med
rate sensitivity is cushioned, not erased
management uses four 1-month SOFR floor contracts to hedge floating-rate commercial loans. Hedge is the jargon. In plain English: part of the rate move gets softened, not deleted.
if the rate backdrop moves against them, those contracts only absorb part of the pressure on spreads.
med
the rerating case is narrow
the stock trades at 13.8x trailing earnings, while the EPS bridge is $4.04 trailing versus a $4.40 fy2027 estimate. that's progress, but not enough to bail out weak execution.
what would change our mind: if trust does not move above 37% of fee revenue and earnings stop moving from $4.04 toward $4.40, this stays a quality bank with limited upside.
you are underwriting a bank priced at 13.8x earnings with a $529M mix upgrade attached. if trust stays stuck at 37% of fee revenue, the stock probably keeps trading like the same old regional bank.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
next report
first full quarter with FineMark
the next clean read matters because it is the first chance to see what the $529M deal is contributing in reported numbers.
fee mix
trust share of fee revenue
37% is the marker right now. if that number does not move up, the strategy is not moving either.
spread pressure
net interest income versus noninterest income
management said both improved. you want that balance to hold, because one doing all the work is a weaker story.
valuation risk
whether the stock earns anything above a bank multiple
at 13.8x earnings and inside a $49–$56 range, the market still sees a plain regional bank. that is the hurdle you care about.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
75 / 100
in human-speak, analysts see a bank that usually behaves itself. fewer surprises, more steady compounding.
price stability
90 / 100
the stock has been unusually calm. calm is nice, but it also tells you the market is waiting for proof before paying more.
risk rank
2
lower is safer here. plain english: this screens as less fragile than most stocks, even if the growth angle is modest.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 224 buyers vs. 197 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 99.4M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$45
$82
$54
current price
$64
target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $90 (+70% · 15% ann'l return)
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