XVARY Composite Score
81
/ 100
Above Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
Start here if you're new
What it is
Casey’s runs 2,658 Midwestern convenience stores that sell fuel, pizza, drinks, and everyday stuff.
How it gets paid
Last year L Strs made $15.9B in revenue. Fuel was the main engine at $9.70B, or 61% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.3% last year. Institutional data still described sales as supportive at $4.5 billion and said both revenue and earnings rose 14% vs.
What just happened
Casey’s posted $5.53 in quarterly EPS, below the $6.25 consensus estimate.
At a Glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
90/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
33.2x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
0.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 81/100 — above average
What They Do
Casey’s runs 2,658 Midwestern convenience stores that sell fuel, pizza, drinks, and everyday stuff.
This is a convenience habit business disguised as a gas station chain. Casey’s has 2,658 stores across 16 Midwestern states, with dense local coverage that keeps your stop quick and your choices familiar. Nonfuel retail generated 36% of revenue but 63% of gross profit over the past three years, which means the real business is getting you inside.
How They Make Money
$15.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +7.3% last year
Fuel
$9.70B
2 pts mix vs FY2023
Grocery and general merchandise
$3.98B
+7.3% company revenue
Prepared food and dispensed beverages
$1.75B
+7.3% company revenue
Other revenue
$0.48B
+7.3% company revenue
The Products That Matter
Fuel, food, and merchandise retail
Store sales
$15.9B revenue · +4.2% last year
it generated the full $15.9B revenue base last year, which means your investment case lives or dies on steady traffic, clean execution, and protecting a 3.8% net margin.
entire business
What the data does not break out
Segment detail
thin disclosure in this snapshot
the snapshot gives you $15.9B in total revenue and 4.2% growth, but not a segment split. That means you can see the scale, not the exact mix between fuel, prepared food, and merchandise.
data caveat
Key Numbers
33.2x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings ratio → how much you pay for each dollar of profit → you are paying up for a convenience chain.
$15.9B
annual revenue
This shows Casey’s is not a niche operator. It is a scaled retail machine across the Midwest.
9.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → Casey’s wins on volume and mix, not fat margins.
10.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → decent, but not the kind of number that excuses any price.
Financial Health
A
Strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 85 / 100
- long-term debt $2.4B (10% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.2% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 15% — $0.15 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in CASY 3 years ago → it's now worth $26360.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Casey’s posted $5.53 in quarterly EPS, below the $6.25 consensus estimate.
institutional data still described sales as supportive at $4.5 billion and said both revenue and earnings rose 14% vs. prior year in the quarter it discussed. The business keeps growing, but the latest consensus comparison shows the stock is being judged against a high bar.
$4.5B
revenue
$5.53
eps
9.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 11.52% EPS miss, because expensive stocks usually need clean beats.
-
Casey’s general stores continues to exceed expectations.
-
The midwestern convenience store chain has developed a strong record of impressive earnings growth, which was reaffirmed in the fiscal third quarter. (year ends april 30th.) the company posted earnings per share of $5.53 in the october period, beating our estimate of $5.45.
-
Sales were supportive, reaching $4.5 billion, while also surpassing our forecast.
-
Together the top and bottom lines both showed a 14% annual increase, driven by a larger store base and higher fuel gallons.
-
Inside same-store sales, a key business as it generates the majority of gross profit, increased just over 3%, with prepared food and beverage sales rising 5%, in line with management’s strategy to enhance food offerings, particularly its promotional-pizza performance.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is inside-store traffic and margin pressure hitting a stock that still trades at 33.2x earnings.
High
Consumer slowdown
Casey’s sells a lot of everyday items, but flat demand still matters when your revenue base is $15.9B and growth last year was 4.2%.
a slowdown would pressure the full $15.9B revenue base
High
Thin margin business
A 3.8% net margin leaves little cushion. When costs move the wrong way, a small sales miss can turn into a much larger earnings miss.
if net margin slips from 3.8% toward 3.0%, the earnings story changes fast
Med
Premium multiple risk
Trailing P/E is 33.2x and forward P/E is about 29.7x. That is a generous valuation for a business with flat recent quarterly revenue.
multiple compression matters even if the business stays healthy
Med
Debt-funded flexibility narrows
$2.4B in long-term debt is manageable with an A balance sheet. It still means less room for error if operating momentum softens.
balance-sheet strength helps, but debt does not disappear in a weak year
When you keep only 3.8 cents of every sales dollar, you do not need a collapse to hurt earnings — just softer traffic, higher costs, or a market that decides 33.2x was too generous.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Net margin versus 3.8%
this is the pressure gauge. A thin-margin retailer needs that number stable, not drifting lower.
Trend
Whether EPS keeps outrunning revenue
flat sales with higher earnings can work for a while. It is less convincing if revenue stays pinned near $3.9B.
Calendar
Next earnings reset
this stock is priced for steadiness. Each quarterly report has to defend that premium all over again.
Risk
Valuation versus the $522 midpoint target
current price is $564 while the 3–5 year midpoint target sits at $522. That gap is the market daring the company to keep delivering.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they still like the stock even after the run.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. This reads like a quality operator, not a cyclical mess.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not flashing anything dramatic. The business case matters more here than the tape.
earnings predictability
90 / 100
management has delivered unusually dependable results. That consistency is the whole reason investors tolerate a premium multiple.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 370 buyers vs. 358 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 32.0M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$368
$676
$564
Current price
$522
Target midpoint · 7% from current · 3-5yr high: $675 (+20% · 5% ann'l return)
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