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what it is
Maplebear, which does business as Instacart, connects about 1,800 retailers to online grocery orders, delivery, and pickup.
how it gets paid
Last year Maplebear made $3.7B in revenue. Instacart Marketplace was the main engine at $2.3B, or 62% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 10.8% last year. While the average order value slipped 4%, this was expected due to higher restaurant orders and the introduction of a $10 basket minimum for instacart+.
what just happened
Instacart missed estimates with $0.29 in EPS versus $0.50 expected.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
21.9x trailing p/e — priced about right
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 52/100 — below average
$2.15 fy2026 eps est
What they do
Maplebear, which does business as Instacart, connects about 1,800 retailers to online grocery orders, delivery, and pickup.
Instacart sits between 1,800 retailers and 83.4 million quarterly orders. That is the expensive part. Your groceries, your ads, and your checkout all live in one place, so leaving means rebuilding the whole routine. Transport revenue -> delivery and service fees -> 71% of 2024 sales. Advertising and other -> retail media and extra services -> 29% of sales. That 71% vs. 29% split says the business is part logistics, part billboard.
How they make money
$3.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +10.8% last year
Instacart Marketplace
$2.3B
Instacart Enterprise Platform
$0.3B
Advertising and other
$1.1B
The products that matter
grocery delivery and pickup
Instacart marketplace
$3.7B revenue · +10.8% growth
it's the center of the business. $3.7B in annual revenue tells you the platform has scale, and 10.8% growth says it is still expanding after the easy pandemic era ended.
core engine
retailer storefront software
retailer partnerships
roughly 1,800 retailers
the partner base matters because grocery chains want digital reach without building every tool themselves. if that number stalls, your scale story gets thinner fast.
distribution
pricing and loyalty tools
affordability programs
7.3% of gtv transaction take
management keeps talking about affordability, price parity, and loyalty integrations for a reason. grocery shoppers notice every fee, so stable take-rate math is the difference between repeat orders and churn.
retention lever
Key numbers
$3.7B
annual revenue
You are not buying a tiny app anymore. This is a real business, and the market values it like one.
21.9x
trailing p/e
The stock is priced like a steady operator, not a miracle story.
20.0%
operating margin
This margin says the platform keeps a decent slice after costs. That is the difference between a service and a pile of coupons.
83.4M
quarterly orders
More orders mean more chances to charge fees and sell ads. That is the whole machine.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- net profit margin 12.7% — keeps 13 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for CART right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Instacart missed estimates with $0.29 in EPS versus $0.50 expected.
Latest-quarter revenue was $2.8B, and gross margin was 74.2%. That margin is strong, but the EPS miss still landed harder than the sales number.
$950M
revenue
$0.29
eps
74.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $0.21 EPS miss mattered most because Wall Street pays for clean earnings beats, not just busy grocery carts.
-
maplebear (doing business as instacart) looks poised for healthy growth this year.the company has been doubling down on affordability, recognizing that cost is a major factor in attracting and retaining customers. by working closely with retailers to offer better pricing strategies, loyalty integrations, and price parity initiatives, instacart aims to make its services more accessible and appealing to a broader audience. this focus on affordability is expected to reduce customer churn and encourage more frequent orders. the grocery technology company likely wrapped up 2025 with decent results, and we expect a continued solid performance as 2026 unfolds.
-
during the september period, 83.4 million orders were reported, representing a 14% increase over the year-ago period.
-
this order growth drove a 10% rise in gross transaction value (gtv).
-
while the average order value slipped 4%, this was expected due to higher restaurant orders and the introduction of a $10 basket minimum for instacart+ members.
-
revenue from transactions grew 10%, representing 7.3% of gtv, which remained consistent with the previous year.this growth was fueled by improved shopper efficiencies, and reduced customer incentives, allowing instacart to reinvest in affordability initiatives to drive customer engagement.
source: company earnings report, 2025
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is order frequency cracking when grocery delivery starts feeling optional again.
med
consumer pullback on delivery convenience
instacart lives in a category where shoppers compare every fee against just driving to the store themselves. if budgets tighten, convenience gets questioned fast.
the hit runs through the full $3.7B revenue base, because fewer baskets mean less for everyone on the platform.
med
retailers wanting more of the economics
roughly 1,800 retailer partners are a strength until one of the larger ones decides it wants more control, lower fees, or a bigger share of the customer relationship.
if partner bargaining power rises, that 7.3% of gtv transaction take becomes harder to protect.
med
cost pressure in a business the market sometimes mistakes for software
delivery, support, and promotional spending all carry real-world costs. this is profitable, but a 13.8% net margin leaves less room for error than the platform label suggests.
if those costs rise faster than order growth, the margin story gets thinner before the revenue story does.
all three risks point to the same pressure point: CART needs shoppers to keep ordering and retailers to keep agreeing that instacart earns its cut on a $3.7B revenue base.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
transaction revenue as a % of gtv
7.3% is the quiet anchor in this story. if it slips while revenue growth slows, the model is losing pricing power and volume at the same time.
cal
next earnings report
the setup is for $0.60 EPS on $0.9B revenue. you want to hear whether affordability efforts are helping order frequency or just defending it.
trend
institutional buying streak
three straight quarters of net buying matters more if it continues. if that flow reverses, the chart loses one of its cleaner supports.
risk
retailer partnership momentum
roughly 1,800 retailer relationships are a strength. watch for signs big partners want more control or smaller partners stop joining.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — the near-term setup looks ordinary. in human-speak, the street sees a stock that needs a fresh catalyst.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — neither especially safe nor especially fragile. you are owning execution risk, not balance-sheet drama.
chart momentum
top 5%
technical score 1 — top tier chart action. the quiet part: traders like this tape more than long-term investors trust the business.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 256 buyers vs. 214 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$29
$75
$39
current price
$52
target midpoint · +32% from current · 3-5yr high: $80 (+105% · 19% ann'l return)
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