XVARY Composite Score
55
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Carrier sells the heating, cooling, and cold-chain equipment that keeps your house, office, and food supply working.
How it gets paid
Last year Carrier Global made $21.7B in revenue.
Why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.3% last year. The 30% volume drop in the Americas climate business matters more than the headline quarter because it tells you the core residential market is still.
What just happened
Latest earnings were a miss, with EPS of $0.34 versus a $0.41 estimate.
At a Glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
95/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
20.1x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
14.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 55/100 — below average
What They Do
Carrier sells the heating, cooling, and cold-chain equipment that keeps your house, office, and food supply working.
When your building cooling fails, you call the contractor you already trust. Carrier has spent decades building that channel, and it serves customers through 48,000 employees worldwide. Scale → a big installed base and service network → so what: when equipment breaks, you replace it with the brand your dealer can source fast.
How They Make Money
$21.7B
annual revenue · revenue declined -3.3% last year
total revenue
$21.7B
3.3%
The Products That Matter
Heating, cooling, and refrigeration equipment
HVAC and Refrigeration Systems
$21.7B revenue
It's the full $21.7B business in this snapshot, and the cited 4.2% growth area is doing the heavy lifting while total company revenue still fell 3.3%.
core business
Key Numbers
$75
18-month target
The 18-month target sits $21.8 above the $53.2 stock price. Plain English: the upside case is 41% if execution improves.
$11.3B
long-term debt
Debt equals 20% of capital. Plain English: the balance sheet can handle stress, but this is not a debt-free industrial.
14.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money used in the business → so what: Carrier turns every $1 invested into about $0.145 of operating return.
20.1x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings → what investors pay for past profits → so what: you are paying a market-like multiple for a company with lowered outlook scores.
Financial Health
B++
Strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $11.3B (20% of capital)
- net profit margin 14.3% — keeps 14 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 21% — $0.21 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in CARR 3 years ago → it's now worth $13250.
The index would have given you $13920.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Latest earnings were a miss, with EPS of $0.34 versus a $0.41 estimate.
The pressure came from weak North American residential demand. That same softness showed up in a 30% sales-volume drop in the Americas climate business.
$16.9B
revenue
$1.65
eps
26.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 30% volume drop in the Americas climate business matters more than the headline quarter because it tells you the core residential market is still soft.
-
Carrier global’s third-quarter showing was below what we were looking for.sales for the period clocked in at $5.579 billion, which was well below our initial expectations, and roughly $100 million below our reduced $5.680 billion call.
-
Significant weakness in the north american residential market was the main culprit.
-
More specifically, the climate solutions arm for the americas saw a 30% drop in sales volume from a year ago.on a positive note, commercial hvac receipts in the americas showed signs of strength and the company continued to make inroads in the booming data center market. on the earnings line, share profit registered $0.67 on an adjusted basis, versus our $0.75 estimate, largely the result of the top-line shortfall.
-
Our 2025 expectations are down from the time of our october report.to reflect the struggles within its residential business here in the americas, management has reduced its in-house outlook for 2025. sales are pegged to sum to $22 billion for the full year, after starting the year with a midpoint of $23 billion. further, adjusted eps is targeted to approximate $2.65 with free cash flow expected to come in right around $2 billion.
-
Our previous calls were at $22.6 billion and $2.90 a share, but are now moving lower to the aforementioned in-house figures.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is a longer hvac and refrigeration demand slowdown.
Med
Demand keeps slipping
Revenue already fell 3.3%, and the next quarter is set up for another 7% drop in sales. If customers delay projects and replacements at the same time, the slowdown stops looking temporary.
100% of the $21.7B revenue base feels that first.
Med
Margin support does the heavy lifting
A 10.9% net margin looks fine until volume weakens for too long. Lower sales and fixed manufacturing costs are not friends.
If margins slip, the case for paying 20.1x earnings gets weaker fast.
Med
The growth pocket stays isolated
The page points to a 4.2% growth area inside a business that still shrank 3.3%. One healthier pocket does not fix the whole company.
If that pocket cools, you are left with a slowing industrial and a stock that already wants better numbers.
If HVAC demand stays soft, 100% of Carrier's $21.7B revenue base takes the hit, and the current 20.1x earnings multiple loses its cushion.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Whether revenue gets back above flat
The business fell 3.3% last year and the next quarter is set up for -7%. That line has to stop moving down.
Trend
If the 4.2% growth pocket spreads
One area is growing while the company total is shrinking. You want that gap to close in the right direction.
Risk
Margin pressure after the sales drop
10.9% net margin has kept the story respectable. If that starts slipping, the slowdown gets harder to excuse.
Calendar
The next quarter's $0.60 EPS setup
A small profit gain on falling sales buys time. It does not solve the top-line problem by itself.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this lags until the top line stops shrinking.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical stock risk, neither especially safe nor unusually wild.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not giving you a clean signal either way.
earnings predictability
95 / 100
Management's guidance tends to land close to reality. Reliable is good. Reliable slowdown is still slowdown.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 586 buyers vs. 728 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.7B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$44
$106
$53
Current price
$75
Target midpoint · +41% from current · 3-5yr high: $105 (+95% · 20% ann'l return)
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