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what it is
Calix sells the software, systems, and services broadband providers use to upgrade networks and run internet service for homes and businesses.
how it gets paid
Last year Calix made $1.0B in revenue. broadband access systems was the main engine at $0.40B, or 40% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 20.3% last year. In addition, growing software-as-a-service demand helped revenue performance obligations advance 18%, year to year, reflecting strong long-term customer deployments.
what just happened
Calix reported Q4 EPS of $0.39, exactly in line with estimates, while revenue slightly beat internal expectations.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
40.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
10.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 40/100 — below average
What they do
Calix sells the software, systems, and services broadband providers use to upgrade networks and run internet service for homes and businesses.
Calix wins because it sells a full stack to broadband providers, not just a box. The company added 25 new broadband providers in 2025, and revenue performance obligations rose 18% vs. prior year. That is backlog-like demand (revenue performance obligations → contracted future work → so what: your customer is already halfway into the relationship before the next invoice shows up).
How they make money
$1.0B
annual revenue · their business grew +20.3% last year
broadband access systems
$0.40B
+20.3%
cloud and software platforms
$0.18B
+18.0%
subscriber systems
$0.22B
+20.3%
services and support
$0.12B
+20.3%
other platform revenue
$0.08B
+20.3%
The products that matter
ai-native broadband platform
calix one platform
$1B–$1.5B bead-linked opportunity
This is the bundled hardware-plus-software stack aimed at a projected $1B–$1.5B opportunity tied to U.S. broadband grants. That is the growth hook investors keep circling.
grant tailwind
subscription software layer
calix cloud
~58% gross margin (FY / blended)
This layer helped lift company gross margin to roughly 58% on an FY-style read; the Q4 print on this page is 56.5% — same story, different quarter.
margin engine
Key numbers
$2.0B
2029 revenue
Revenue target (sales → money coming in the door → so what): the base case assumes Calix doubles from about $1.0B today to $2.0B by 2029.
2.1%
operating margin (FY)
Operating margin (profit after running the business → what is left from each sales dollar → so what): Calix keeps just 2.1 cents on each dollar of revenue.
40.1x
trailing p/e
P/E (price-to-earnings ratio → how expensive the stock is versus last year's profit → so what): you are paying a growth multiple for a company still rebuilding earnings.
10.5%
return on capital
Return on capital (profit from invested money → how efficiently management uses cash and assets → so what): decent, but not high enough to excuse every valuation premium.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- net profit margin 10.6% — keeps 11 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in CALX 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,340.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Calix reported Q4 EPS of $0.39, exactly in line with estimates, while revenue slightly beat internal expectations.
The rebound kept going in 2025, with full-year EPS rising to $1.35 from $0.51 in 2024. Software demand helped too, with revenue performance obligations up 18% vs. prior year.
~$265M
revenue (q)
$0.39
eps (Q4)
56.5%
gross margin (Q4)
the number that mattered
The important number was 18% growth in revenue performance obligations, because contracted demand tells you the rebound is not just one quarter of luck.
-
calix’s top- and bottom-line performance has staged a partial rebound in 2025.
-
the company reported earnings of $0.39 a share, in line with our expectations, on revenues that slightly beat our top-line estimate by about $8 million.the broadband and communications services provider has been shifting its direction toward cloud software, analytics, aienabled tools, and subscriber experience solutions in order to grow recurring revenue streams. the upside was driven by strong adoption of ai agentics and platform development, with help from the connexions conference that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2025.
-
in addition, growing software-as-a-service demand (calix cloud) helped revenue performance obligations advance 18%, year to year, reflecting strong long-term customer deployments.
-
the company added 25 new experience-driven broadband providers (bxps) amid robust demand for network upgrades.
-
in addition, subscriber experience enhancements supported appliance revenue (access edge and experience edge) growth of 36%, year to year.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The top risk is BEAD grant timing and conversion. A meaningful part of the CALX story rests on turning a projected $1B–$1.5B opportunity into actual orders, not just conference-slide optimism.
med
BEAD money arrives slower than the market wants
Management has framed a $1B–$1.5B opportunity around U.S. broadband grants. Government money tends to move on government time.
If that pipeline converts slowly, investors are left paying a premium multiple for growth that stays theoretical.
med
premium multiple compression
CALX trades at 3.3x sales versus 2.6x for peers. That gap is the market pre-paying for better mix and better execution.
A move from 3.3x down to 2.6x is roughly 21% multiple compression before you even argue about fundamentals.
med
carrier spending stays uneven
The systems and services side of the model was flat in the tracked split, which tells you not every part of demand is accelerating at the same speed.
If customers delay network spending again, the lower-margin hardware side gets hit first and that 58% gross margin becomes harder to defend.
med
earnings volatility is real here
Earnings predictability is 35/100 and price stability is 15/100. This is not a stock that glides calmly through a messy quarter.
When expectations get reset, smaller-cap premium names tend to move more than the business does.
If the $1B–$1.5B BEAD opportunity slips and the stock gets re-rated from 3.3x sales to the 2.6x peer level, you are dealing with weaker growth and about 21% multiple compression at the same time.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
april 22 investor day
This is the next real checkpoint for updated targets, margin commentary, and how management frames the BEAD timeline.
metric
gross margin staying near 58%
That is the number supporting the premium valuation. If mix slips, the multiple argument weakens with it.
trend
institutional buying streak
Net buying has lasted three straight quarters. A fourth would tell you larger holders still see more upside than risk from here.
risk
BEAD awards turning into orders
The headline opportunity is $1B–$1.5B. What matters now is conversion, cadence, and whether the story shows up in revenue instead of slides.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think the next stretch could lag the market.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — this name is more volatile than most, so your entry price matters.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — there is no screaming signal here, just a stock trying to earn trust back.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
Low predictability means estimates are less reliable. Translation: good quarters can look great, and misses can look worse than they should.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 122 buyers vs. 92 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 59.2M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$22
$74
$54
current price
$48
target midpoint · 11% from current · 3-5yr high: $100 (+85% · 17% ann'l return)
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