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what it is
Burlington sells discounted clothes and home goods in 1,108 stores across 46 states and Puerto Rico.
how it gets paid
Last year Burlington Stores made $10.6B in revenue. Ladies' apparel was the main engine at $3.29B, or 31% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 9.3% last year. The beat was small, just 0.82%, but it landed on top of strong vs. prior year growth.
what just happened
Burlington's last reported quarter beat by a hair, with $4.89 EPS versus the $4.85 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
31.3x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
24.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 54/100 — below average
What they do
Burlington sells discounted clothes and home goods in 1,108 stores across 46 states and Puerto Rico.
You go to Burlington for the treasure hunt, not the search bar. The company has almost no real online business, yet it did $10.6 billion in annual sales through stores alone, according to its investor materials and SEC filings. That matters because off-price retail rewards speed and cheap inventory buys, and Burlington turned that model into a 24.0% return on capital (return on capital → profit from each dollar invested → this chain squeezes real cash from every new store).
How they make money
$10.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +9.3% last year
Ladies' apparel
$3.29B
Men's apparel
$2.23B
Children's apparel
$1.80B
Home goods
$2.01B
Accessories, baby, and coats
$1.27B
The products that matter
in-store discount apparel and home goods
Off-Price Retail
$10.6B revenue · 100% of the business
it's the full $10.6B business, and it grew 4.2% from last year. that makes execution the story — there isn't a second segment waiting to bail out weak traffic.
entire business
Key numbers
24.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from each dollar invested → Burlington turns store growth into real returns, not just more square footage.
31.3x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price versus profit → you are paying a premium price for a retailer with a 5.6% net margin.
$13B
fy2026 sales est.
That is the revenue base supporting the bull case, up from $10.6B last year, or about 22.6% higher.
1,108
store count
This is still a physical retail story. More stores mean more growth, but also more execution risk.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $2.0B (10% of capital)
- net profit margin 5.6% — keeps 6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 38% — $0.38 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BURL 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,730.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Burlington's last reported quarter beat by a hair, with $4.89 EPS versus the $4.85 estimate.
The beat was small, just 0.82%, but it landed on top of strong vs. prior year growth. Fiscal 2025 quarterly EPS ran $1.58, $1.47, $1.80, and $4.85, versus $1.35, $1.20, $1.55, and $3.69 in fiscal 2024.
$3.65B
revenue
$4.89
eps
0.82%
surprise
the number that mattered
The key number was $4.89 EPS because it topped the $4.85 estimate and showed Burlington still has earnings momentum even after the stock's big run.
-
sales increased 7% vs. prior year, with a 1% gain in comp-store sales.
-
still, the top line missed expectations by $40 million.
-
store traffic fell sharply after the back-to-school window closed, with unseasonably warm weather getting the blame.conversely, the merchandising/operating teams were cheered for their handling of the tariff situation, and the improvement in margins versus last year. this brought adjusted share earnings to $1.80, which was $0.15 ahead of both our and wall street’s expectations. we expect earnings to reach an alltime high of $9.70 a share when the ink dries on the books for fiscal 2025. leadership did state that business at the end of october and well into november picked up, as colder temperatures brought out shoppers looking for wintry items.
-
therefore, we are only trimming our full-year sales figure by $20 million, to $11.48 billion.
-
too, we forecast that earnings will remain on an upward trajectory through the holiday season.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat is a discretionary spending pullback hitting off-price traffic at the exact moment the stock is priced for smooth execution.
med
consumer demand slows
Burlington sells discretionary goods. If shoppers pull back, all $10.6B of revenue feels it because there is no second segment to offset weak store demand.
A 5.5% net margin does not leave much cushion if traffic softens and markdowns rise at the same time.
med
weather scrambles seasonal demand
Management already blamed warm weather for a sharp traffic drop after back-to-school. That is a reminder that seasonal apparel sales can shift fast, even when the brand value proposition stays intact.
When demand gets delayed, quarterly results get noisy — and 10/100 earnings predictability tells you the market already sees that problem.
med
merchandising or cost discipline slips
Recent results were saved by strong merchandising and tariff management. That is good news, but it also tells you how much of the story depends on operating precision.
At 31.3x trailing earnings, the market is unlikely to forgive a quarter where traffic weakens and margins fail to hold.
all $10.6B in revenue runs through one off-price retail model, and the business only keeps 5.5% of those sales as net profit. that's a workable setup, but not a forgiving one.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
watch whether management keeps the $5.25 EPS and $2.7B revenue setup intact or starts walking it back.
metric
same-store sales
same-store sales means sales from existing locations. this tells you whether traffic is improving without the help of new stores.
trend
margin durability
recent quarters leaned on merchandising and tariff management. watch whether that discipline keeps protecting a 5.5% net margin.
risk
traffic after seasonal shifts
warm weather already distorted one period. if traffic stays choppy even after temperatures normalize, the issue is no longer just weather.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — the stock is acting roughly in line with the market. in human-speak: analysts do not see a strong short-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is neither a bunker stock nor a blow-up candidate. it sits in the middle.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — recent price action is softer than analysts want to see. in human-speak, the chart is not doing the stock any favors.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
forecasting this business has been difficult. that usually means sharper reactions when quarterly numbers land.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
261 buyers vs. 247 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 67.5M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$247
$508
$303
current price
$378
target midpoint · +25% from current · 3-5yr high: $485 (+60% · 12% ann'l return)
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