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what it is
Peabody digs up coal in the U.S. and Australia, then sells it to power plants and steelmakers.
how it gets paid
Last year Peabody Energy made $3.9B in revenue. Seaborne thermal coal was the main engine at $1.4B, or 36% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 8.9% last year. The number that mattered was -$0.52 in EPS.
what just happened
The quarter was about scale without profit: $2.8B in revenue still ended with negative EPS.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
0.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.8% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$2.15 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 53/100 — below average
What they do
Peabody digs up coal in the U.S. and Australia, then sells it to power plants and steelmakers.
Peabody wins on scale and geography. It owns interests in 16 mining operations across the U.S. and Australia, plus a 50% stake in Middlemount in Queensland. That gives you product diversity across thermal coal for power and metallurgical coal for steel, so one weak market does not fully shut the lights off.
How they make money
$3.9B
annual revenue · their business grew -8.9% last year
Seaborne thermal coal
$1.4B
dn
Seaborne metallurgical coal
$1.1B
up
Powder River Basin thermal coal
$0.8B
flat
Other U.S. thermal coal
$0.5B
dn
Brokerage and trading
$0.1B
flat
The products that matter
exported power-plant coal
Seaborne Thermal Coal
$2.0B · 51% of segment revenue shown here
It is the biggest revenue line at $2.0B, and management already expects lower volumes in 2026 because of mine closures. When your largest segment is guiding down on tons, you feel it.
volume pressure
exported steelmaking coal
Seaborne Metallurgical Coal
$1.5B · +5% growth
This $1.5B segment grew 5% and is the cleaner part of the story. If BTU works from here, this segment probably does the rescuing.
the offset
smaller legacy and support operations
Other Operations
$0.4B · -15%
At $0.4B, this bucket is too small to save the story and too weak at -15% to ignore. It adds noise, not relief.
not the answer
Key numbers
2.1%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after core costs → so what: Peabody is selling nearly $4B of coal and still losing money on operations.
$392M
long-term debt
Long-term debt is 9% of capital, which means leverage is not the main thing hurting you here. The issue is earnings quality, not balance-sheet stress.
-$2.32
trailing EPS
Trailing EPS → profit over the last 12 months → so what: the stock is being judged on a business that recently lost money, even with a $2.15 full-year estimate for 2024.
7.8%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in the business → so what: this is okay for a miner, not special for a cyclical stock.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $392M (9% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for BTU right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter was about scale without profit: $2.8B in revenue still ended with negative EPS.
Revenue rose 181% vs. prior year to $2.8B, but EPS was still negative at -$0.52. Revenue → money coming in before costs → so what: Peabody moved a lot more product, but pricing, costs, or both kept profits under water.
$2.8B
revenue
-$0.52
eps
2.1%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was -$0.52 in EPS, because higher revenue means little when each share still loses money.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The top risk is lower seaborne thermal volumes colliding with weak coal pricing. BTU can handle a cyclical downturn. It cannot wish away a weaker price deck and fewer tons at the same time.
high
thermal coal is still the biggest revenue bucket
Seaborne thermal generated $2.0B, or about half of the revenue shown here, and management expects lower volumes in 2026 because of mine closures.
If thermal weakens again, the largest segment is moving against you
high
recent profitability already broke
Trailing net income was -$52.9M, net margin was -1.4%, and operating margin was -2.1%. This is not a business coming into the next stretch from a position of obvious strength.
Losses compress the room management has to make mistakes
med
met coal has to offset more than before
Seaborne metallurgical mining grew 5% to $1.5B. That helps, but it now has to do more of the stabilizing while thermal volumes fall.
If the offset slows, the whole revenue mix looks worse fast
med
the stock is volatile even when the balance sheet looks fine
Risk rank is 2, which reads safer than 80% of stocks on that measure, but price stability is only 5 out of 100 and the 52-week range ran from $10 to $40.
You can be right on value and still get a brutal ride
Thermal coal is $2.0B of a $4B revenue base, and earnings predictability is 5/100. That is a volatile mix for a stock trading at $28.15.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
q1 2026 earnings on may 5, 2026
Watch for seaborne thermal volume guidance first. If management talks around tons, that usually tells you enough.
trend
whether met coal keeps offsetting thermal weakness
Met coal grew 5% to $1.5B. You need that line moving up if the $2.0B thermal segment keeps moving down.
risk
another stretch of negative operating margin
Trailing operating margin was -2.1%. If operations stay below breakeven, the recovery case starts to look like hope in a hard hat.
metric
price behavior versus the $10–$40 range
At $28.15, the stock sits in the upper half of its 52-week range. That leaves room up, but it also tells you optimism is not free.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not expect tidy, repeatable quarters here.
risk rank
2
That score reads safer than 80% of stocks on this measure. The balance sheet helps. Coal prices still call the mood.
price stability
5 / 100
Low price stability means the stock moves around a lot. You are signing up for variance, not calm.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for BTU is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$28
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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