Start here if you're new
what it is
Black Stone Minerals owns oil and gas mineral rights and gets paid when other companies drill them.
how it gets paid
Last year Black Stone Minerals made $422M in revenue. Natural gas royalties were the main engine at $198M, or 47% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.9% last year. EPS of $0.31 mattered most because it landed 16.2% below estimates.
what just happened
Black Stone missed EPS by 16.2% in the latest print even after quarter revenue jumped to $327M (vs $422M FY— different period).
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
12.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
7.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
22.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 52/100 — below average
What they do
Black Stone Minerals owns oil and gas mineral rights and gets paid when other companies drill them.
BSM owns mineral rights on 16.8 million gross acres. That means your check comes from other drillers, not from buying rigs or hiring crews. 130 employees manage that sprawl, which is about 129,000 acres per person. Its average ownership interest is 47.8%, so the cash stream is spread across a huge footprint.
How they make money
$422M
annual revenue · their business grew -3.9% last year
Natural gas royalties
$198M
Oil royalties
$119M
NGL royalties
$52M
Lease bonus income
$33M
Other royalty income
$20M
The products that matter
owns mineral rights
Oil and natural gas royalty interests
$422M · effectively the whole business
it's the full $422M revenue stream, and it still produced a 60.0% net margin. you are not buying product diversity here. you are buying exposure to one royalty model.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
7.8%
dividend yield
You get $7.80 a year for every $100 invested. That is the whole pitch in one number.
12.2x
trailing p/e
You pay $12.20 for $1 of past earnings. That is cheap enough to matter, but not cheap enough to ignore risk.
22.0%
return on capital
BSM turns $100 of capital into $22 of profit before taxes. That is why a royalty business can look boring and still print money.
16.8M
gross acres
BSM owns mineral rights across 16.8 million acres. That is a huge fee base for 130 employees to watch.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- net profit margin 60.0% — keeps 60 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 26% — $0.26 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BSM 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,660.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Black Stone missed EPS by 16.2% even after revenue jumped to $327M.
Quarter revenue was $327M— the vs. prior year % in the feed is huge because of a weak base quarter, not because FY sales tripled. EPS was $0.31 versus $0.37 expected, so the headline was a miss, not a beat.
$327M
quarter revenue
$0.31
quarter EPS
16.2%
surprise
the number that mattered
EPS of $0.31 mattered most because it landed 16.2% below estimates.
-
the company has slightly raised production (although it probably fell a bit from a year ago in the fourth quarter).
-
meantime, bsm’s average selling prices for both oil and gas likely ended the year a little lower than they were in 2024.
-
after reaching a post-pandemic high in late 2022, the price of these units has drifted lower.
-
this is a reflection of both the top and bottom lines taking a downward flight path.as a result of this, the board of directors has been quick to reduce the all-important annual dividend from $1.90 per unit in 2023, to $1.28 in 2025.
-
these declines are a direct result of a fall in oil prices over that time period.after reaching a high of $120.07/barrel in june, 2022, wti crude now resides in the low $60/barrel range.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
BSM's biggest risk is not operational complexity. it is commodity price exposure across a one-line revenue model.
med
oil and natural gas prices drop
management already said its major market risk exposure is oil and gas pricing. with one $422M revenue stream, this is not a side issue.
lower realized prices pressure revenue, dividend coverage, and the logic behind a 7.8% yield all at once.
med
operator activity slows on BSM acreage
BSM owns the mineral rights, but it does not control the drilling budget. if operators pull back, royalty volumes can fall even if the partnership's cost structure stays light.
that is how you end up with strong margins on a smaller revenue base. margins protect the model. they do not create barrels or gas volumes.
med
the yield becomes the whole thesis
a 7.8% yield attracts income investors fast. it also raises the stakes if revenue keeps slipping after the recent 3.9% decline.
if you stop believing the payout is durable, the stock can re-rate lower even while the headline yield still looks generous.
If the 3.9% slide repeats, you lose about $16.5M of revenue.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
top risk
oil and gas prices still run the story
the company said so directly in its feb 24, 2026 risk disclosure. if commodity prices weaken, the royalty model feels it fast.
flow
institutional buying needs to stay positive
three straight quarters of net buying helps, but 73 buyers versus 70 sellers is narrow. you want the trend, not just the headline.
income
watch the yield against revenue
7.8% looks great. revenue fell 3.9% last year. if those move in opposite directions for too long, the payout story gets harder to defend.
calendar
next earnings report
you want two things at once: stable royalty revenue and no deterioration in the cash-return story. BSM does not need hypergrowth. it needs proof the income engine still holds.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
40 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not expect a smooth earnings line here. commodity-linked royalty income moves around.
balance sheet strength
B
good enough to support the current setup, but not the kind of balance sheet that erases macro risk.
price stability
75 / 100
less chaotic than many energy names. still not a bunker stock when oil and gas prices swing.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 73 buyers vs. 70 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 34.5M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$12
$18
$14
current price
$15
target midpoint · +7% from current · 3-5yr high: $20 (+45% · 16% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive