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what it is
Dutch Bros runs drive-thru coffee shops and franchises them across 18 states.
how it gets paid
Last year Dutch Bros made $1.6B in revenue. Company-operated beverage sales was the main engine at $1.30B, or 81% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 27.9% last year. Planning commentary pointed to ~160 openings in 2025, while the latest earnings print in this feed cites 154 new shops for the year—use the filing to reconcile. The company aims for 175 in 2026.
what just happened
Dutch Bros posted a 29% revenue jump to $443.6M and beat the street on sales.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
79.7x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
14.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 38/100 — weak
$1.15 fy2027 eps est
What they do
Dutch Bros runs drive-thru coffee shops and franchises them across 18 states.
You are buying routine, not just coffee. Dutch Bros had 982 shops on Dec. 31, 2024, up from 831 a year earlier. It already spans 18 states, so your nearest rival is often your own habit. Founder Travis Boersma owns 42.3% of the stock and 74.6% of the voting power, so the founder still runs the table.
How they make money
$1.6B
annual revenue · their business grew +27.9% last year
Company-operated beverage sales
$1.30B
Franchised royalties and fees
$0.16B
Food program
$0.08B
Merchandise and other
$0.06B
The products that matter
operates drive-thru coffee shops
company-operated shops
~$1.30B · ~81% of revenue
matches company-operated beverage sales in the table—where Dutch Bros captures full store economics.
core driver
franchises new locations
franchised shops
~$160M · ~10% of sales
matches franchised royalties and fees in the table—reach without funding every new shop from the balance sheet.
scaling layer
unit expansion engine
new shop openings
175 planned in 2026 · ~15% store-base growth
the company was tracking toward 160 openings last year and aims for 175 in 2026. that pace is the real product investors are paying for.
valuation hinge
Key numbers
$1.6B
annual revenue
That is the size of the machine. Bigger sales give you more room to absorb coffee inflation.
79.7x
trailing p/e
You are paying almost 80 years of trailing earnings in one shot. The market expects a lot.
982
shop count
You are looking at a chain that added 151 shops in one year. Growth is the product.
17.5%
operating margin
This is the cushion. A 100 bps slip is about $16M on $1.6B of revenue.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $587M (6% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.2% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for BROS right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Dutch Bros posted a 29% revenue jump to $443.6M and beat the street on sales.
The company opened 154 new shops in 2025 in this feed—slightly below the ~160 “tracking” language used elsewhere on the page until you align to the filing. Same-store sales 5.3%. Coffee costs still leaned on margins.
$443.6M
rev (q)
$0.17
eps (q)
5.3%
same-store sales
revenue growth
29% revenue growth mattered because it came from 154 new shops and better sales at existing stores.
-
dutch bros likely made impressive strides in 2025.
-
the top line has been getting a strong boost from new stores (more below), as well as rising sales at established shops, including 5.7% growth in the september quarter.most of these gains are being driven by increased transactions, rather than higher prices, indicating that dutch’s beverage-oriented, drivethru shops remain a popular destination with customers.
-
meanwhile, operating margins have faced some pressure of late from elevated coffee costs, higher preopening expenses, and other items, but these headwinds were unlikely to prevent full-year earnings from climbing about 43%, to roughly $0.70 a share. (results were scheduled to be released after we went to press with this report.) new store development continues to ramp up.the company was tracking toward opening 160 shops last year and aims to bump this up to 175 in 2026.
-
this year’s activity would expand the store base about 15%, and a mid-teens annual growth rate is apt to persist in subsequent years.in all, dutch bros, which opened its 1,000th location just about a year ago, aims to reach 2,000 stores by end of the decade.
-
we look for earnings to climb nearly 30% in 2026.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is coffee-cost inflation colliding with aggressive store expansion.
med
coffee and input cost pressure
management already flagged higher coffee costs. with a 9.2% net margin, there is not a massive cushion if commodity and labor costs stay elevated.
margin pressure hits an already premium 79.7x earnings multiple fast.
med
new-store execution risk
the plan moves from 160 openings to 175 in 2026. if new shops take longer to mature or cannibalize older ones, revenue growth stops looking clean.
the market is paying for mid-teens store growth. a miss there would hit both the story and the multiple.
med
traffic softening in a weaker consumer tape
dutch bros sells affordable indulgence, but it is still discretionary. if traffic slips while preopening expense stays high, earnings momentum gets pinched.
these risks sit on top of $1.6B in revenue and a chain still proving it can scale nationally without losing unit economics.
the risk stack is simple: a premium valuation assumes the company can keep translating 15% store-base growth into 25%+ sales growth while holding a 9.2% net margin together.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
27.9% revenue growth
if that pace fades while the stock still trades at 79.7x trailing earnings, the valuation math gets much less friendly.
risk
9.2% net margin
the margin is fine, not huge. higher coffee costs or preopening expense have room to dent it.
calendar
175 planned openings in 2026
this is the cleanest proof point for the expansion story. if the pace slips, investors will notice before the income statement does.
trend
three straight quarters of net institutional buying
249 buyers versus 222 sellers is support, not a stampede. keep an eye on whether that trend sticks.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — near-term odds look weaker than average. in human-speak, the models do not trust the next stretch.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — safer than only 20% of stocks. translation: you should expect bigger swings here.
chart momentum
top 5%
technical score 1 — the chart is stronger than the fundamentals right now. welcome to growth-stock math.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 249 buyers vs. 222 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$33
$113
$56
current price
$73
target midpoint · +31% from current · 3-5yr high: $115 (+105% · 20% ann'l return)
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