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what it is
Popular is a regional bank that takes deposits, makes loans, and sells financial services in Puerto Rico and the U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year Popular made n/a in revenue. Retail banking was the main engine at $62M, or 40% of sales.
what just happened
Popular posted Q4 2025 EPS of $3.53, topping the $3.22 estimate by 9.63%.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
11.6x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
xvary composite: 68/100 — average
What they do
Popular is a regional bank that takes deposits, makes loans, and sells financial services in Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Scale matters here. Popular was the largest financial institution based in Puerto Rico at 12/31/25, with $75.3 billion in assets and $66.2 billion in deposits. Deposits are customer cash parked at the bank, which means cheap funding, so what: when your bank already holds the island's money, growing loans gets easier.
How they make money
n/a
annual revenue
Retail banking
$62M
+4.0%
Commercial banking
$47M
+6.0%
Mortgage banking
$19M
0.0%
Auto and equipment financing
$14M
+6.0%
Brokerage and insurance
$14M
0.0%
The products that matter
consumer banking and deposits
Retail banking
13% return on equity
this is the relationship engine of the franchise, and the 13% return on equity tells you the core bank is profitable even without a clean segment breakout.
core franchise
home lending activity
Mortgage lending
55 / 100 predictability
mortgage results move with rates and housing demand, and a 55/100 predictability score is your reminder that this line can make quarterly numbers look jumpier than the valuation suggests.
rate-sensitive
island market banking
Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands banking
$8,290 excess return
the geographic focus has worked for shareholders — BPOP beat the index by $8,290 on a $10,000 investment over three years — but that same concentration is the first risk you need to underwrite.
edge and risk
Key numbers
$16.00
2027 EPS
EPS means profit per share, so what: at $142.63, you are paying about 8.9 times that profit estimate.
$66.2B
total deposits
Deposits are the raw material for a bank. Popular's funding base is more than 7 times its roughly $9 billion market value.
13%
return on equity
Return on equity means profit earned on shareholder money, so what: 13% says this is productive, not sleepy, bank capital.
$760M
long-term debt
Long-term debt is just borrowed money due later, so what: $760 million is only 7% of capital, which keeps the balance sheet from doing anything dramatic.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $760M (7% of capital)
- return on equity 13% — $0.13 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BPOP 3 years ago → it's now worth $22,170.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Popular posted Q4 2025 EPS of $3.53, topping the $3.22 estimate by 9.63%.
The beat came from higher net interest income. Net interest income means what the bank earns on loans minus what it pays on deposits, so what: a wider margin and 6% loan growth did the heavy lifting.
$39M
revenue
$3.53
eps
9.63%
surprise
the number that mattered
The number was $3.53 because it pushed full-year EPS to $12.30 from $8.56 in 2024, a $3.74 jump in one year.
-
loan growth and earnings per share in the december period exceeded our expectations.
-
the bottom-line beat was helped by higher net interest income, driven by a wider net interest margin and a 6% increase in loans, and lower operating expenses.the operating backdrop in puerto rico remained supportive, with commercial loans and residential mortgages serving as key drivers.
-
the region’s economy has proven resilient, with steady labor trends.however, management struck a cautious note about general affordability pressures and electrical-system reliability as potential problems for the island’s inhabitants.
-
the bank is poised for slower, but still steady, gains in 2026.
-
we expect loan growth of nearly 4% to support net interest income expansion of about 6%, largely from the ongoing reinvestment of securities, new loan originations, and easing deposit costs.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is puerto rico concentration.
high
puerto rico concentration
one public-source risk summary says the primary risk is heavy reliance on the Puerto Rican economy. That means local recession, credit stress, or deposit pressure can hit the whole story at once.
hard to diversify away if the core market weakens
med
regulatory scrutiny and compliance risk
a march 3, 2026 public-source note flagged heightened regulatory and reputational risk. The source text is thin, but for a bank, compliance problems are never a side issue.
higher costs, slower growth, and headline risk
med
expansion beyond traditional markets
one source notes that growth outside legacy markets brings new regulatory environments, different competitive dynamics, and more execution risk. Expansion is not free.
new markets can dilute returns before they improve them
med
earnings volatility
55/100 earnings predictability is the market telling you results can move around. At 11.6x earnings, valuation helps. It does not make bad quarters disappear.
cheap multiples do not protect you from estimate cuts
this snapshot does not give clean exposure percentages, but it does tell you where to look: one geography, bank regulation, and a middling predictability score.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
valuation
$16.00 eps estimate vs. a $142.63 stock price
that works out to about 8.9x forward earnings. If estimates slip, the cheap-stock argument gets thinner fast.
risk
puerto rico concentration
the investment case is tied to one local economy more than most mainland regional banks. That is the first variable to keep in frame.
flow
whether institutional buying keeps going
three straight quarters of net buying helped the tone. If that reverses, it is worth asking what changed in the underwriting.
price action
the gap to the $149 52-week high
the stock is only $6.37 below the top of its range. Near-high bank stocks can rerate higher, but they also have less room for sloppy quarters.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
55 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not see BPOP as a smooth quarter-to-quarter story.
risk rank
3
that puts it around the middle of the pack on overall risk — not fragile, not a bunker.
price stability
65 / 100
the stock has been steadier than a lot of smaller financial names, but banks still trade on sentiment and credit fears.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 229 buyers vs. 169 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 59.9M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$89
$173
$143
current price
$131
target midpoint · 8% from current · 3-5yr high: $265 (+85% · 18% ann'l return)
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