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what it is
BP drills oil and gas, runs refineries, and sells fuel and energy products across the world.
how it gets paid
Last year Bp made $192.5B in revenue. Customers & products was the main engine at $116.0B, or 60% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.1% last year. Specifically, the british energy giant has suspended its $750 million share-buyback program amidst a challenging commodity pricing environment and rising concerns over the company’s elevated.
what just happened
BP posted $0.60 EPS against a $0.93 estimate, a 35.48% miss.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
67.6x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
4.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 63/100 — average
What they do
BP drills oil and gas, runs refineries, and sells fuel and energy products across the world.
BP wins because scale still matters in oil. It produced 953,000 barrels of oil per day in 2024 and ran 1.4 million barrels per day through refineries. You are not rebuilding that network from scratch, and 94.3% refining availability means those assets were actually running.
How they make money
$192.5B
annual revenue · their business grew -1.1% last year
Customers & products
$116.0B
1.0%
Oil production & operations
$38.5B
2.0%
Gas & low carbon energy
$30.8B
+3.0%
Other businesses & corporate
$7.2B
0.0%
The products that matter
produces, refines and sells energy
Integrated energy operations
$192.5B · company-wide revenue
this is the engine behind the full $192.5B business, but it only converts that scale into a 4.8% net margin.
4.8% net margin
reported operating segment
Gas & low carbon energy
named in the 2024 annual report
bp lists this as a reportable segment, which matters because the strategy debate lives here, but this snapshot does not show segment-level dollars. Thin disclosure is the story.
data thin
Key numbers
n/a
fy eps est
$320B
fy2029 rev est
67.6x
trailing p/e
4.6%
dividend yield
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- long-term debt $54.6B (35% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.8% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BP 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,590.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
BP posted $0.60 EPS against a $0.93 estimate, a 35.48% miss.
Revenue was $95.6B, up 100% vs. prior year, but profit did not follow. Average realized oil prices slipped to $77.77 from $79.37 in 2023, and buyback support is weaker than peers.
$95.6B
revenue
$0.60
eps
35.48%
surprise
the number that mattered
The important number was the $0.33 EPS shortfall versus estimates, because BP now has to earn back confidence before the market pays up.
-
bp recently announced scaled back share repurchases.specifically, the british energy giant has suspended its $750 million share-buyback program amidst a challenging commodity pricing environment and rising concerns over the company’s elevated debt profile. indeed, the capital that was previously allocated to the program will now likely be used to reduce the company’s long-term obligations.
-
the move makes bp the only global energy major that is not currently buying back stock.
-
at this time, the quarterly dividend payment does not appear to be at any risk.on top of this, asset divestments are expected to continue, which should provide an additional cash infusion.
-
a change at the helm is imminent.
-
the board, along with strong support from activist investor elliot investment management, recently announced the replacement of murray auchincloss at the chief executive officer role with meg o’neill, effective april 1st.
source: yahoo finance earnings data, 2026
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What could go wrong
BP’s risk picture is dominated by Michigan antitrust litigation tied to renewable power restrictions and by the usual geopolitical fragility of a global oil and gas system.
high
michigan attorney general lawsuit over alleged cartel behavior
Jan 24, 2026 · The complaint says BP and peers, along with the American Petroleum Institute, agreed to restrict renewable electricity production.
stated revenue exposure range on this page: $28.9B–$48.1B
high
repeat Michigan antitrust headline keeps the legal overhang alive
Jan 23, 2026 · A separate report on the same legal action hit one day earlier, reinforcing that this is not a one-cycle news item.
stated revenue exposure range on this page: $28.9B–$48.1B
med
strategic realignment still leaves BP highly exposed to geopolitics
Mar 9, 2026 · Coverage flagged Middle East conflict risk and shifting trade tariffs. That is a real operating risk when your supply chain is global.
stated revenue exposure range on this page: $19.2B–$28.9B
med
strategic u-turn could alienate ESG-focused investors and regulators
Jul 21, 2025 · Short-term shareholder value and long-term stakeholder tolerance are not always friends. BP may have to keep choosing between them.
stated revenue exposure range on this page: $19.2B–$28.9B
four identified risks. combined revenue exposure on this page: ~$38.5B. The exact math is less important than the message: legal and geopolitical noise are material, not background.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
valuation
whether earnings recover enough to make 67.6x look temporary
For an oil major, a high trailing P/E usually means the denominator broke. If profits rebound, the multiple will fall fast. If not, the stock is more expensive than it looks.
filings
bp annual report and form 20-f
The filing says reportable segments included gas & low carbon energy as of Dec 31, 2024. You want clearer segment economics than this free snapshot gives you.
legal
whether the Michigan antitrust case expands or fades
One lawsuit is a headline. Multiple related headlines inside two days starts to look like an overhang. Watch for follow-through, not just the initial filing.
ownership
whether institutional flow flips back to net buying
BP had 454 buyers versus 458 sellers in 3q2025 and has now seen net selling for two straight quarters. That is not a panic signal, but it is not sponsorship either.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
In human-speak: analysts do not see BP as a smooth earnings story. Expect the cycle to do most of the forecasting for them.
risk rank
3
That translates to roughly middle-of-the-pack safety. Stronger than fragile small caps, weaker than true defensive compounders.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 454 buyers vs. 458 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$25
$47
$39
current price
$36
target midpoint · 8% from current · 3-5yr high: $75 (+90% · 21% ann'l return)
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