Start here if you're new
what it is
It makes prescription drugs for cancer, blood clots, and immune diseases.
how it gets paid
Last year Bristol-Myers Sq made $48.2B in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.2% last year. The 43.01% EPS miss mattered most because it says the quarter's profit engine lagged the sales beat.
what just happened
BMY's latest quarter missed on EPS by 43.01%, even with $12.5B of revenue.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
14.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 75/100 — average
What they do
It makes prescription drugs for cancer, blood clots, and immune diseases.
Growth portfolio (new drugs that replace old ones) brought in $6.86B in Q3 2025, while legacy portfolio (older drugs losing steam) fell 12%. Opdivo alone did $2.53B in the quarter. Your wallet likes that because one drug can still print enough cash to cover the slide.
How they make money
$48.2B
annual revenue · revenue declined -0.2% last year
total revenue
$48.2B
0.2%
The products that matter
develops and sells branded drugs
Branded pharmaceuticals
$48.2B revenue · entire business
it's the full $48.2B revenue base, earning a 15.2% net profit margin. that margin matters, but the real question is how much of it survives loss of exclusivity.
entire business
late-stage drug pipeline
Clinical pipeline
supports a $111B equity story
there is no separate revenue number here, and that is the point. you are being asked to underwrite future replacement products against a current $48.2B business.
future offset
cash returns to shareholders
Dividend stream
4.7% yield
the dividend gives you 4.7% income while the market waits for proof that revenue can do more than hold roughly flat.
paid to wait
Key numbers
4.7%
dividend yield
You get $4.70 a year for every $100 invested.
14.1x
trailing p/e
You pay $14.10 for $1 of trailing earnings.
$44.5B
debt
Debt equals 29% of capital, so this is big but not broken.
16.5%
return on capital
The business turns $100 of capital into $16.50 of operating profit.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 90 / 100
- long-term debt $44.5B (29% of capital)
- net profit margin 15.5% — keeps 16 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 34% — $0.34 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BMY 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,270.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
BMY's latest quarter missed on EPS by 43.01%, even with $12.5B of revenue.
Revenue beat the $12.28B estimate, but EPS at $1.26 still missed. That is the kind of quarter where the top line acts healthy and the bottom line acts tired.
$12.5B
revenue
$1.26
eps
38.0%
margin
the number that mattered
The 43.01% EPS miss mattered most because it says the quarter's profit engine lagged the sales beat.
-
bristol-myers’ 2025 third-quarter sales were up 2.8% from a year ago.
-
this was thanks to an 18% increase in growth portfolio drugs to $6.86 billion, but a 12% decline in legacy portfolio drugs to $5.37 billion.
-
leading the charge in the growth portfolio was opdivo (for cancer), with sales of $2.53 billion.
-
still, it must be said that this therapy’s top-line growth rate is faltering.
-
the higher sales helped push up share earnings to $1.08.it should be noted, however, that excluding amortization of acquired intangible assets of over $2.4 billion in last year’s third period, pershare profits would have been $1.01.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is loss of exclusivity after Revlimid, with Opdivo next in line.
med
patent cliff
the moat is patent protection, and patents expire. generic competition can hit branded drug sales fast once exclusivity breaks.
impact: generic erosion can cut 50–80% of revenue on affected products.
med
government drug price negotiations
pricing pressure attacks the part of pharma everyone likes most — high-margin branded revenue with limited direct substitutes.
impact: negotiations could reduce revenue by 5–15% on affected products.
med
pipeline and clinical risk
late-stage failures do not just waste R&D. they remove the future replacement plan for a business already sitting at $48.2B in annual sales.
impact: if replacement drugs miss, the market keeps valuing Bristol Myers as a shrinking cash flow stream.
these risks sit against the full $48.2B revenue base, and the worst one is simple: a patent-driven business does not stay cheap if the replacement story fails.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
top-line stabilization
the annual revenue base is $48.2B and last year slipped -0.2%. if growth does not return, the low multiple is telling the truth.
timeline
the patent-loss schedule
Revlimid already lost exclusivity and Opdivo is the next anxiety. in pharma, the calendar is part of the valuation model.
risk
drug pricing pressure
government negotiations matter because even a 5–15% revenue hit on affected products can chip away at a 15.2% net margin story.
metric
EPS versus the $3.50 estimate
cheap stocks rerate when earnings hold. if Bristol Myers misses the $3.50 estimate, the 4.7% yield stops looking generous and starts looking like compensation.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they think the bad news may already be in the stock.
risk profile
safer than most
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. the balance sheet is not the part of this story keeping investors up at night.
chart momentum
bottom 5%
technical score 5 — the weakest rating. translation: the chart still looks like a stock the market does not trust.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
earnings predictability is very low. you should expect noise, revisions, and plenty of debate around every quarter.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 957 buyers vs. 1,099 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.6B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$34
$66
$54
current price
$50
target midpoint · 8% from current · 3-5yr high: $70 (+30% · 10% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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