Start here if you're new
what it is
Bloomin’ runs restaurant chains like Outback, Carrabba’s, Bonefish, and Fleming’s across 1,172 company-owned locations.
how it gets paid
Last year Brands made $4.0B in revenue. Outback Steakhouse was the main engine at $2.3B, or 58% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 0.1% last year. We think weak demand trends continued through year-end.
what just happened
Latest quarter EPS came in at $0.25 on about $3.0B of revenue, but the bigger story is that full-year EPS fell from $2.93 in 2023 to $1.78 in.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
5.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
10.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 30/100 — weak
What they do
Bloomin’ runs restaurant chains like Outback, Carrabba’s, Bonefish, and Fleming’s across 1,172 company-owned locations.
This is not a magical brand moat. It is a scale moat. Bloomin’ runs 1,172 restaurants and 291 franchised units, with 81,000 employees, so your dinner dollars feed a system big enough to spread food, labor, and marketing costs across four concepts. Scale moat (big fixed-cost base spread over more stores) → cheaper operations per restaurant → so what: if traffic comes back, more of each extra sales dollar can drop to profit.
How they make money
$4.0B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.1% last year
Outback Steakhouse
$2.3B
+1.0%
Carrabba's Italian Grill
$0.7B
1.0%
Bonefish Grill
$0.5B
2.0%
Fleming's Prime Steakhouse
$0.3B
+2.0%
Franchise and other
$0.2B
+3.0%
The products that matter
operates the core restaurant base
Company-owned restaurants
1,172 locations
This is the operating engine: 1,172 locations supporting a business that generated $4.0B in annual revenue. The quiet part: company-operated stores also carry the labor, food, rent, and execution risk directly.
core footprint
collects franchise economics
Franchised restaurants
291 units
Those 291 franchised units add reach without requiring the same capital as company-operated stores. In plain English: franchise units are the cleaner economics inside a messier operating model.
asset-light edge
extends geographic reach
Geographic footprint
46 states · Guam · 12 countries
The footprint is broad. The margins say breadth has not translated into real pricing power. A 3.4% net margin on a $4.0B revenue base is scale without much cushion.
breadth, not moat
Key numbers
5.4x
trailing p/e
You are paying 5.4 times trailing earnings for a chain expected to do about $4.0B in 2027 revenue. That is distress pricing.
10.1%
dividend yield
The yield is huge because the stock fell. Translation: the market does not trust the payout to stay comfortable.
$962M
long-term debt
Debt is 66% of capital, which means this turnaround has less margin for error than the low P/E makes it look.
9.0%
operating margin
Operating margin (profit before interest and taxes) → money left after running restaurants → so what: a small sales rebound can still matter.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $962M (66% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.4% — keeps 3 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 29% — $0.29 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BLMN 3 years ago → it's now worth $2,780.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter EPS came in at $0.25 on about $3.0B of revenue, but the bigger story is that full-year EPS fell from $2.93 in 2023 to $1.78 in 2024.
The quarterly print beat expectations, but annual earning power is still sliding. 2025 EPS was then projected at just $1.10 after another estimate cut.
$3.0B
revenue
$0.25
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The important number is 1.2% comparable sales growth, because traffic finally turned positive but still not enough to prove demand is fixed.
-
even though comparable sales rose (1.2%) for the first time since early 2023, the two percentage-point vs. prior year drop in the adjusted operating margin, to 7.8%, suggests the advance was hard-won.
-
we think weak demand trends continued through year-end.
-
thus, our earnings per share estimate for 2025 was lowered by a nickel, to $1.10.
-
potential recovery in bloomin' shares must begin with a rebound in demand.the top-line impact of higher prices or a richer mix of menu items is just offsetting reduced traffic into the company's restaurants. our forecasts suggest only incremental annual improvements in the operating margin, but we also assume further closures of underperforming units, particularly as it relates to costly, company-owned outback steakhouse s. Leadership has heightened its focus on the balance sheet. that is likely to mean a further emphasis on building cash flow, or at least generating cash from strategic actions.
-
in 2025-2026, we expect capital spending to fall to around $150 million.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
BLMN does not need a dramatic failure to disappoint you. It needs one bad mix of flat traffic, cost pressure, and debt service in a business already earning just 3.4 cents per revenue dollar.
high
debt has little margin for error
Long-term debt is $962M, or 66% of capital. That's a lot of fixed pressure for a company with a C++ balance sheet grade and a 3.4% net margin.
If sales wobble, the balance sheet stops being background noise and becomes the whole story.
high
flat sales leave almost no operating cushion
Annual revenue grew just 0.1% last year. In casual dining, flat traffic plus rising labor or food costs is how a low multiple becomes an earnings miss.
The cheapness only works if operations stop treading water.
med
brand and cyber risk are operating risks, not side risks
The 2025 10-K explicitly warns that a security breach, or even the perception of one, could trigger litigation, investigations, and brand damage.
For a consumer-facing chain, trust problems show up in both guest counts and legal costs.
med
the 10.1% yield can be a trap disguised as income
A double-digit yield looks generous until you remember the stock trades at $5.97 and has already badly lagged the market. High yield is sometimes just a distressed price wearing nicer clothes.
If cash flow tightens, the income story weakens right when investors are counting on it most.
$962M of long-term debt, 66% of capital, and a 3.4% net margin leave very little room for an operating stumble.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
net margin above 3.4%
Here's the thing: if margin stays stuck at roughly three cents on the dollar, the rerating case stays theoretical.
trend
institutional selling pressure
103 buyers versus 124 sellers in 3q2025 tells you the stock still needs to earn back trust.
risk
debt staying near 66% of capital
This is the balance-sheet number that turns a cheap stock into a fragile one.
calendar
next earnings report
The snapshot does not show a date. That's thin, and we are not inventing one. You care whether revenue finally moves beyond the current +0.1% pace.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
15 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust this business to produce smooth, repeatable earnings.
price stability
20 / 100
The stock price has been jumpy and weak. You own something the market keeps repricing because conviction is low.
risk rank
4
That's safer than roughly 20% of stocks. Translation: this sits on the riskier side of the market, not the safer one.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
103 buyers vs. 124 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 86.9M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$5
$20
$6
current price
$12
target midpoint · +101% from current · 3-5yr high: $12 (+100% · 19% ann'l return)
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