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what it is
Builders FirstSource sells lumber, windows, roofing, and other building supplies to homebuilders, remodelers, and contractors across the U.S.
how it gets paid
Last year Builders First made $15.2B in revenue. lumber and sheet goods was the main engine at $5.9B, or 39% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 7.4% last year. The problem was volume. Fourth-quarter 2025 sales fell 12% on weak housing starts.
what just happened
Latest quarter EPS came in at $1.12, below the $1.23 expectation.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
14.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
8.7% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 64/100 — average
What they do
Builders FirstSource sells lumber, windows, roofing, and other building supplies to homebuilders, remodelers, and contractors across the U.S.
This business wins on reach and repetition. It operates in 89 of the top 100 U.S. metro areas, so your builder customer can buy from one supplier in market after market. Scale → bigger network → easier one-stop ordering, so what: that makes BLDR hard to replace when timing and delivery matter.
How they make money
$15.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -7.4% last year
lumber and sheet goods
$5.9B
manufactured components
$4.0B
windows, doors and millwork
$3.0B
other specialty building products
$2.3B
The products that matter
supplies framing and structural materials
structural building products
national supply footprint
this is the scale story. BLDR serves 89 of the top 100 u.s. metro areas, which is why large builders use one partner across multiple markets.
reach matters
manufactures and sells value-added components
windows, doors, and millwork
margin support
gross margin was roughly 29% in the latest quarter after a 250 basis point drop. higher-value manufactured products matter because commodity-heavy mix gives margins nowhere to hide in a slowdown.
mix matters
integrates ordering and workflow tools
software & services
retention layer
the snapshot gives no revenue figure here, so we are not dressing it up as a hidden growth engine. what you do know: tighter digital ordering makes a $15.2B supplier harder to swap out mid-project.
stickier accounts
Key numbers
$4.4B
long-term debt
Debt → money owed over time → so what: BLDR can handle a slowdown, but housing slumps get harsher when you owe $4.4B.
6.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: this is a thin cushion for a cyclical supplier.
8.7%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on invested money → so what: BLDR is decent, not elite, at turning assets into earnings.
14.4x
trailing p/e
P/E → price versus past earnings → so what: you are paying a market-like multiple for a business in a housing slump.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $4.4B (29% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BLDR 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,470.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest quarter EPS came in at $1.12, below the $1.23 expectation.
The problem was volume. Fourth-quarter 2025 sales fell 12% on weak housing starts, and that hit profits hard as annual EPS dropped to $6.89 from $11.56 in 2024.
$11.8B
revenue
$1.12
eps
30.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the 12% fourth-quarter sales decline, because lower volume crushed earnings much faster than revenue.
-
earnings at builders firstsource are likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
-
sales in the final quarter of 2025 fell 12% primarily due to below normal housing starts.the home building industry has been sluggish for more than a year due to weak consumer confidence and poor affordability.
-
the lower volume in the fourth quarter had a severe impact on the bottom line as earnings per share fell more than 50% to $1.12.
-
we expect the difficult conditions to persist in the current quarter, and our estimate is for a 33% decline in earnings per share. Lower mortgage rates could provide a boost as the year progresses.
-
in late february, borrowing rates for home loans dropped below 6% for the first time in three years.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is u.s. housing affordability staying broken. BLDR can execute well and still print weak numbers if builders and remodelers keep pulling back.
high
housing volume stays weak
revenue fell 7.4% last year, and the latest quarter came in at $3.9B with EPS down 55%. that is not vague macro talk. that is the operating model under pressure.
if housing demand does not recover, the 41.5% earnings rebound in next year's estimates is too high.
med
margin compression keeps compounding
gross margin fell 250 basis points to roughly 29% in the latest quarter. translation: BLDR made less money on every dollar sold.
every 100 basis point move on $15.2B of annual revenue is about $152M of gross profit. small margin changes are not small here.
med
debt feels larger in a downcycle
$4.4B of long-term debt and a B+ balance sheet are fine when volumes are healthy. they look less comfortable when earnings are falling and the stock swings harder than the market.
debt equals 29% of capital. that does not point to distress, but it does reduce room for error if the downturn drags.
low
legal headline noise
a shareholder investigation by Kaskela Law adds noise around the story. these cases are common, and this snapshot does not show a direct financial hit tied to it.
for an ~$11B company, this looks more like volatility risk than thesis-breaker risk.
a weak housing market already hit a $15.2B revenue base and took quarterly EPS down 55%. if demand stays soft, estimate cuts are the real risk — not just another bad headline.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
gross margin
29% was the latest reading after a 250 basis point drop. if that number falls again, the rebound case gets thinner fast.
risk
housing demand
BLDR is a second-derivative housing trade. builders slowing orders show up here fast, and the latest quarter already did.
calendar
next earnings print
you want to know whether $3.9B revenue and $1.10 EPS marked a trough or just one stop on the way down.
trend
estimate credibility
analysts expect 41.5% EPS growth next year. watch whether revisions hold or start walking down to meet the quarter.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
outlook rank 2 — in human-speak, analysts think the stock can outperform over the next year even after weak operating numbers.
risk profile
average
risk rank 3 — this is cyclical and volatile, but it is not a balance-sheet emergency.
chart momentum
top 20%
momentum rank 2 — the chart has held up better than the earnings line, which means the market still believes in a rebound.
earnings predictability
45 / 100
forecasting is harder here because volume, pricing, and product mix can all change at once.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 261 buyers vs. 317 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$75
$177
$99
current price
$126
target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $220 (+120% · 22% ann'l return)
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