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what it is
Blue Bird builds school buses, sells replacement parts, and is pushing electric and low-emission models into a market that still has to move kids twice a day.
how it gets paid
Last year Blue Bird made $1.5B in revenue. Type C school buses was the main engine at $0.83B, or 55% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 9.9% last year. 21.4% gross margin matters most because it shows Blue Bird is not just selling more buses.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $333M, up 6%, while EPS reached $0.94.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
36.3x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
38.2% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
$3.88 fy2025 eps est
xvary composite: 56/100 — below average
What they do
Blue Bird builds school buses, sells replacement parts, and is pushing electric and low-emission models into a market that still has to move kids twice a day.
You are not buying a concept car company. You are buying a 1927-founded school bus maker with 2,008 employees and dealer relationships that keep fleets stocked and repaired. Return on capital was 38.2% in the base data. Return on capital means profit earned on the money tied up in the business → plain English: this company squeezes a lot of earnings out of each dollar invested → so what: that leaves room for pricing power and mistakes.
How they make money
$1.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +9.9% last year
Type C school buses
$0.83B
+9.9%
Type D school buses
$0.38B
+9.9%
Specialty buses
$0.08B
+9.9%
Parts
$0.15B
+6.0%
Alternative fuel and electric mix
$0.08B
+6.0%
The products that matter
manufactures and sells school buses
School Buses
core $1.5B business
it's the center of the entire $1.5B revenue base, which means production throughput and pricing show up everywhere in the income statement.
core
replacement parts and support
Parts
supports the installed fleet
parts sales ride on the same bus population that drives vehicle demand, and they matter because the company already runs at a 21.4% gross margin, so every mix shift counts.
margin support
electric and low-emission offerings
Electric and Low-Emission Buses
strategic growth angle
management positions this as the growth narrative, but the snapshot does not break out revenue. that means you should treat it as a real opportunity, not a proven profit engine yet.
catalyst watch
Key numbers
$3.88
FY2025 EPS
EPS means profit per share → plain English: what the business earns for each share you own → so what: at $49.96, the stock is about 12.9 times this year's estimate.
38.2%
return on capital
Return on capital means how efficiently the company turns invested money into operating profit → plain English: this is a very efficient industrial business → so what: 38.2% is the kind of number that supports a higher multiple than a commodity manufacturer gets.
12.3%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business but before interest and taxes → plain English: how much of each sales dollar survives normal costs → so what: 12.3% gives Blue Bird room to absorb some tariff noise.
$89M
long-term debt
Long-term debt means money owed over many years → plain English: the balance sheet is not carrying a bus-sized backpack of debt → so what: $89M is only 5% of capital, which lowers financial risk.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $89M (5% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for BLBD right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $333M, up 6%, while EPS reached $0.94.
Gross margin reached 21.4%. That is the quiet part out loud. A school bus maker is running margins that many industrials would love to borrow.
$333M
revenue
$0.94
eps
21.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
21.4% gross margin matters most because it shows Blue Bird is not just selling more buses. It is selling them at better economics.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is tariffs and supply-chain costs on school-bus components.
med
tariff volatility
feb. 4, 2026 earnings call commentary pointed to ongoing volatility and unpredictability in tariffs. when component costs move around, pricing gets harder and margins get noisier.
the source flags roughly $150M–$225M of revenue exposure for highlighted tariff-related risks.
med
pricing pass-through risk
management is aiming for a margin-neutral response to higher costs. that's the right plan. it also means execution has to stay tight quarter after quarter.
if pricing lags costs, the 12.3% operating margin is the number that gets hit first.
med
production execution
an external risk review lists production as the top risk category. for a company with one core product line, factory hiccups can show up in revenue, margins, and investor confidence at the same time.
the broader risk set cites about $375M of combined revenue exposure across identified issues.
the clean read: tariffs, pricing slippage, or production issues would pressure a $1.5B business that already trades on improvement.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
operating margin
12.3% is the number doing the heavy lifting. if that starts slipping, the valuation argument gets thinner fast.
risk
tariff pass-through
management says pricing should offset cost pressure. you want proof in margins, not reassurance on a call.
calendar
next earnings report
the next print needs to show whether revenue growth and margin discipline can coexist. right now, the stock price assumes they can.
trend
revenue ramp to $2B
consensus points to $2B in fy2026 revenue. that's a meaningful jump from $1.5B, so the path there matters as much as the target.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
15 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not see this as a smooth, sleep-well-at-night earnings story.
risk rank
2
risk rank 2 means the balance sheet looks safer than most stocks. solvency is better than earnings visibility.
price stability
10 / 100
the business may be niche, but the stock is not calm. expect moves.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for BLBD is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$50
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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