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what it is
BlackSky sells satellite images and software that help governments and companies watch places in near real time.
how it gets paid
Last year Blacksky Technology made $102M in revenue. Spectra software subscriptions was the main engine at $34M, or 33% of sales.
what just happened
BlackSky put up $71M of revenue, but EPS still landed at -$2.11.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
-$2.15 fy2025 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
43.4% operating margin
2.3 beta
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
BlackSky sells satellite images and software that help governments and companies watch places in near real time.
BlackSky put a fourth Gen-3 satellite into full service in under a week. Your customer gets 35-centimeter imagery, roughly car-width detail, instead of waiting months for another pass. That speed makes the data feel less like a report and more like a live feed.
How they make money
$102M
annual revenue
Spectra software subscriptions
$34M
Imagery and analytics services
$28M
Mission systems integration
$22M
Data licensing and other
$18M
The products that matter
imagery analytics software
BlackSky Spectra®
35-centimeter imagery · software layer
It turns 35-centimeter imagery into alerts and analytics for customers paying for speed, not just pictures. The software angle matters because raw imagery is easier to compare than actionable alerts.
real-time focus
earth imaging fleet
Gen-3 Satellite Constellation
fourth satellite in service
The fourth Gen-3 satellite entered service in under a week. That is the kind of operational sentence a backlog-dependent company needs investors to believe, because faster commissioning means faster capacity and faster contract fulfillment.
fleet capacity
contracted demand base
Government & Defense Programs
$85M · about 80% of revenue
This is still where the money is. It produced about $85M of the $106.6M revenue base. Good for focus. Less good if procurement timing shifts or emergency demand cools off.
customer concentration
Key numbers
$102M
TTM sales
This is the actual sales base. The 2026 guide is $43M higher.
$145M
2026 guide
The top end of management's plan is $145M. That is 42% above the trailing base.
43.4%
op margin
A negative 43.4% margin means 43 cents vanish before interest and taxes on every dollar sold.
$197M
long debt
Debt equals 19% of capital. That matters when revenue is only $102M.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $197M (19% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for BKSY right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
BlackSky put up $71M of revenue, but EPS still landed at -$2.11.
Revenue jumped 264% vs. prior year, and gross margin came in at 72.6%. The company is scaling fast, but the loss on each share is still ugly.
$71.0M
revenue
$2.11
eps
72.6%
gross margin
revenue jump
The $71M quarter matters because it came with 264% revenue growth, yet EPS was still -$2.11.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
BlackSky's risks are unusually concentrated. The same few variables show up everywhere: backlog conversion, government demand, satellite execution, and a cost structure that still overwhelms gross profit.
med
Backlog is promise, not revenue
BlackSky generated $106.6M of revenue last year against a $345M backlog. That sounds comforting until you remember backlog has to be delivered, recognized, and paid. You are underwriting conversion speed, not just demand.
If 2026 revenue lands below the $120M low end of guidance, the market will likely stop valuing backlog at face value.
med
Government concentration is the whole model
About $85M of revenue comes from government and defense, or roughly 80% of the business. That focus helps when budgets are active and hurts when awards, renewals, or priorities slip.
A slowdown here would not trim growth at the edges. It would hit the center of the revenue base.
med
Operational wins need to stay boring
The fourth Gen-3 satellite entered service quickly, which is good. The problem with satellite businesses is that one delayed launch, one commissioning issue, or one vendor slip can erase several quarters of neat narrative.
If future capacity shows up late, backlog conversion slows and the $6M–$12M adjusted EBITDA guide gets harder to trust.
med
Gross margin strength has not solved the income statement
Q4 gross margin hit 72.6%, yet trailing net income was -$70.3M. That contrast is the entire tension in the stock. Attractive unit economics do not matter much if overhead, interest, and compensation keep taking the other side.
If gross margin falls while losses stay wide, the market loses the main reason it has been willing to look through the red ink.
Put those together and the picture is pretty clear: about 80% of revenue is tied to one customer class, the stock trades on a $345M backlog that still needs to convert, and the net-income line has not caught up to the story yet.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
Q1 2026 earnings report
The report date is May 14, 2026. You want to see whether revenue is pacing cleanly toward the $120M–$145M full-year guide.
metric
Backlog conversion
A $345M backlog sounds impressive. The useful question is how much of it becomes recognized revenue each quarter.
trend
Gross margin durability
Q4 gross margin reached 72.6%. If that holds while revenue rises, the operating model starts to look more believable.
risk
Government demand normalization
About 80% of revenue comes from government and defense. If urgency cools, the stock can rediscover gravity fast.
Analyst rankings
risk profile
above average
risk rank 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks.
chart momentum
below average
momentum rank 4 — analysts see underperformance risk in the near term.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for BKSY is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$22
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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