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what it is
Brookdale runs 623 senior living communities for about 57,000 residents.
how it gets paid
Last year Brookdale Senior made $3.2B in revenue. Assisted living communities was the main engine at $1.15B, or 36% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 2.2% last year. Revenue was up 200% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 26.6%.
what just happened
Brookdale posted $2.4B of quarterly revenue, but EPS stayed at -$0.95.
At a glance
C+ balance sheet — struggling to keep the lights on
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$0.89 fy2024 eps est
$3B fy2024 rev est
0.4% operating margin
xvary composite: 45/100 — below average
What they do
Brookdale runs 623 senior living communities for about 57,000 residents.
Brookdale's 623 communities across 41 states keep residents inside the same system as needs change. Age-in-place means stay put while care rises, so you avoid a move and Brookdale keeps the monthly bill. That matters when you serve 57,000 residents.
How they make money
$3.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +2.2% last year
Assisted living communities
$1.15B
+3.0%
Independent living communities
$0.80B
+0.8%
Memory care services
$0.70B
+4.0%
Skilled nursing and other services
$0.55B
1.5%
The products that matter
houses and cares for residents
Senior living communities
623 communities · about 57,000 residents
this is effectively the whole company, producing about $3.2B in annual revenue across 623 locations. if these buildings stay fuller, the equity story gets better fast.
core
tracks unit pricing and occupancy
RevPAR growth
+5.7% in 2025
RevPAR means revenue per available room. In human-speak: it tells you whether Brookdale is earning more from the space it already has. 5.7% growth hit the top end of guidance, which says operations improved even while GAAP earnings stayed weak.
top-end guidance
contracts to operate communities
Management fees
about 6% of revenue
this slice is only about $0.2B and was flat. That means Brookdale does not have a hidden high-margin side hustle bailing out the main business.
small contributor
Key numbers
$3.2B
annual revenue
The business is large enough to matter, but the 0.4% operating margin shows most of it gets spent as fast as it comes in.
$5.3B
long-term debt
Debt is 62% of capital, which means lenders get a bigger vote than shareholders.
623
communities
Scale matters because 623 sites spread fixed costs across more residents.
26.6%
gross margin
This is the take-home rate before corporate overhead, and 26.6% is not much cushion.
Financial health
C+
strength
- balance sheet grade C+ — weak — may struggle to fund operations
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $5.3B (62% of capital)
C+ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for BKD right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Brookdale posted $2.4B of quarterly revenue, but EPS stayed at -$0.95.
Revenue was up 200% vs. prior year, and gross margin was 26.6%. That is a growth number with a weak bottom line.
$2.4B
revenue
$0.95
eps
26.6%
gross margin
gross margin
The 26.6% gross margin matters most because every extra point gives Brookdale room to service $5.3B of debt.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk here is balance-sheet pressure from $5.3B of long-term debt in a business still running a -8.6% net margin.
med
Debt can eat the turnaround before shareholders do
Brookdale carries $5.3B in long-term debt, equal to 62% of capital. That is a lot of leverage for a company still losing money.
If operating gains slow, interest burden and refinancing pressure can absorb the benefit before it reaches equity holders.
med
The whole story leans on occupancy staying on trend
Occupancy was 80.5% as of June 2025. Empty units are lost revenue in a business where resident fees make up roughly 94% of sales.
A 1% drop in occupancy could reduce annual revenue by approximately $32M. Same buildings. Same fixed-cost base. Worse economics.
med
The securities class action is still an overhang
Brookdale faces an ongoing securities class action first filed in August 2020. Legal overhangs rarely help a turnaround trade earn a premium multiple.
Even if the cash outcome stays manageable, the distraction and uncertainty can cap investor confidence while management is trying to prove a new plan.
Combined, these risks put most of the $3B revenue base and the turnaround multiple at the mercy of occupancy gains, cost control, and debt management.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
Q1 2026 earnings report
Expected on May 5, 2026. The number that matters is whether occupancy and RevPAR keep climbing while losses narrow.
operating metric
Occupancy above 80.5%
This is the cleanest operating lever on the page. If occupancy rises from 80.5%, the fixed-cost math starts helping instead of hurting.
guidance
2026 adjusted EBITDA target
Management anticipates 2026 adjusted EBITDA between $502M and $516M. If they miss the low end, the turnaround pitch loses credibility.
balance sheet
Debt stays the main character
As long as long-term debt sits at $5.3B, every bit of operating progress has to be judged against leverage, not in isolation.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
Low predictability means the reported numbers can swing around more than usual. in human-speak, analysts do not trust this business to produce clean, repeatable quarters yet.
street upside
32%
Analysts see a path to $18.46 from $10.76. That is a meaningful gap, but it only matters if operations keep improving faster than the balance sheet weighs them down.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for BKD is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$11
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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