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what it is
BJ’s runs membership warehouse clubs that sell groceries, gas, and household basics in bulk across the East Coast.
how it gets paid
Last year S Wholesale made $21.5B in revenue. Grocery and consumables was the main engine at $16.1B, or 75% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.7% last year. In january, the company lapped the $5 hike in the fee for standard membership.
what just happened
BJ’s printed $0.96 in EPS, a small beat, but revenue growth stayed muted.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
80/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
21.3x trailing p/e — priced about right
20.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 70/100 — average
What they do
BJ’s runs membership warehouse clubs that sell groceries, gas, and household basics in bulk across the East Coast.
BJ’s has more than 7 million members and 256 clubs, mostly in dense East Coast markets. Membership model → customers pay to shop → so what: you start with recurring fee income before anyone buys paper towels. The business earns 20.5% on capital, which means your money is being put to work far better than its 3.0% net margin suggests.
How they make money
$21.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.7% last year
Grocery and consumables
$16.1B
General merchandise
$3.2B
Gasoline
$1.6B
Membership fees and other
$0.6B
The products that matter
membership-based warehouse retail
Warehouse Club
$21.5B revenue · +4.7% growth
it's the whole business: $21.5B in annual revenue, 6.9% operating margin, and 2.8% net margin. scale matters because the profit spread is thin and every cost line gets a vote.
entire company
Key numbers
20.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: this retailer turns a thin-margin model into strong cash economics.
3.0%
net margin
Net margin → profit kept after all costs → so what: BJ’s has very little cushion if costs rise faster than prices.
$399M
long debt
Long-term debt is just 3% of capital, which tells you the balance sheet is not the thing likely to break this story.
21.3x
trailing p/e
Trailing P/E → stock price divided by last 12 months of earnings → so what: you are paying a full price for a business growing comps around 1%.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 70 / 100
- long-term debt $399M (3% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.0% — keeps 3 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 23% — $0.23 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BJ 3 years ago → it's now worth $14,000.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
BJ’s printed $0.96 in EPS, a small beat, but revenue growth stayed muted.
The latest reported quarter beat consensus EPS of $0.95 by 1.05%. Annual revenue reached $21.5B, up 4.7% vs. prior year, while comparable sales in the third quarter rose just 1.1%.
$5.6B
revenue
$0.96
eps
38.6%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 1.1% comparable-sales increase mattered most because it shows the core store base is growing, but barely.
-
bj's wholesale club reported mixed results in the fiscal third quarter (ended november 1st).
-
revenues climbed by nearly 5% from the prior year, due to a 1.1% rise in comparable sales and a roughly 4% increase in the club count over the past 12 months.and, even though adjusted earnings per share of $1.16 surpassed the company's target, the figure was a penny below last year's $1.17 and compared to our view of $1.20. we have trimmed our profit estimates through fiscal 2026.
-
in the current quarter, we now think comparable sales growth will stay around just 1%, or roughly the same level as the recent interim.meanwhile, high opening expenses from an expected jump in new clubs and a seasonally weak operating margin ought to limit share earnings to $0.95. that puts the figure three cents above the prior-year's $0.92, but three cents below our call in october.
-
for fiscal 2026, our earnings-per-share forecast of $4.75 was lowered from $4.90.
-
in january, the company lapped the $5 hike in the fee (to $60) for standard membership.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is wage-and-hour compliance inside a people-heavy warehouse model.
med
compliance and labor execution
the recent $120M California overtime settlement shows what happens when a labor issue escapes the store level and becomes a balance-sheet issue. if you own BJ, you need this to be a one-time failure, not a recurring expense category.
with a 2.8% net margin on $21.5B in revenue, annual net income works out to roughly $602M. a repeat charge on that scale would take a visible chunk out of profit.
med
price competition hitting thin margins
warehouse retail is a value game. if BJ cuts price harder to hold traffic or membership renewals, that pressure runs straight into a 6.9% operating margin and then into a 2.8% net margin.
this is why a small margin slip matters more than a headline sales beat. the model has room for efficiency, not for many pricing mistakes.
med
cost inflation in freight, labor, or merchandise
BJ does not have the luxury of absorbing cost inflation in silence. if sourcing, wages, or freight move the wrong way, the pressure shows up fast because the business only keeps a small share of each revenue dollar.
6.9% operating margin and 2.8% net margin leave little buffer between an orderly quarter and a disappointing one.
all three risks hit the same pressure point: a $21.5B retailer with 2.8% net margins does not need a crisis to disappoint you.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
net margin staying near 3%
2.8% is the whole argument in miniature. if that number drifts lower, the stock stops looking steady and starts looking expensive.
trend
the path from $21.5B to $22B
the street only expects about 2.3% revenue growth this year. steady works. materially slower than that would force a reset.
risk
whether the settlement stays one-off
after a $120M wage-and-hour hit, you want no sign that labor and legal costs are becoming a recurring line item.
calendar
next earnings versus the $4.75 setup
the current price assumes BJ can move from $4.38 in full-year EPS to about $4.75. that gap is your scoreboard.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think BJ can outperform most stocks over the next year.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits in the middle: not fragile, not especially defensive.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the chart says analysts like the business more than the recent tape.
earnings predictability
80 / 100
management tends to land near expectations. that matters when your thesis depends on consistency, not reinvention.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
294 buyers vs. 330 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$78
$164
$93
current price
$121
target midpoint · +30% from current · 3-5yr high: $165 (+75% · 15% ann'l return)
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