How does bhp make money?

bhp generates $51.3B in annual revenue (annual revenue · their business grew -7.9% last year).

What is BHP's XVARY composite score?

bhp (BHP) has an XVARY composite score of 63/100, rated average. This combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors.

BHP — bhp stock analysis · xvary snapshot

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what it is

BHP digs up the stuff modern life needs, then sells it at global scale: iron ore, copper, coal, and nickel.

how it gets paid

Last year Bhp made $51.3B in revenue. Iron ore was the main engine at $26.7B, or 52% of sales.

why growth slowed
Revenue fell 7.9% last year. To wit, pursuant to the failed attempt to acquire u.k.-based anglo-american plc, bhp turned its attention to forming a $2 billion joint venture with lundin.

what just happened

Last earnings landed at $2.67 per share versus a $1.47 estimate, which is what a real beat looks like.

At a glance

A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn

5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises

16.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal

3.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter

21.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here

xvary composite: 63/100 — average

What they do

BHP digs up the stuff modern life needs, then sells it at global scale: iron ore, copper, coal, and nickel.

Scale is the moat here. BHP produced 263.2 million tonnes of iron ore and 2,017 thousand tonnes of copper in 2025, which means your competitors are not really competitors so much as smaller holes in the ground. Low-cost assets plus a balance sheet graded A give BHP room to survive ugly cycles that crush weaker miners.

energy mega-cap miner copper income

How they make money

$51.3B annual revenue · their business grew -7.9% last year

Iron ore

$26.7B

8.0%

Copper

$14.4B

+6.0%

Metallurgical coal

$7.0B

12.0%

Energy coal

$2.3B

18.0%

Nickel and other

$0.9B

22.0%

The products that matter

mines and sells copper

Copper

$15.4B · 30% of revenue · +8%

this is a $15.4B segment growing 8%, and it is the part of bhp the market increasingly cares about.

growth engine

mines and ships iron ore

Iron Ore

$26.2B · 51% of revenue · -12%

it still brings in $26.2B, or 51% of revenue, which is why the stock cannot escape iron ore pricing yet.

cash engine

coal mining for steelmaking

Coal

$7.7B · 15% of revenue · -5%

coal still contributes $7.7B, but revenue fell 5% and policy pressure is not making life easier.

legacy exposure

Key numbers

56.5%

operating margin

Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: BHP keeps more than half of every sales dollar before financing and taxes.

21.5%

return on capital

Return on capital → profit earned on the money tied up in mines and equipment → so what: these assets still throw off strong cash.

3.9%

dividend yield

Dividend yield → yearly cash paid to you as a percent of share price → so what: you get paid while waiting for commodity prices to cooperate.

$19.1B

long-term debt

Debt at 11% of capital is manageable for a $51.3B revenue business, which matters when commodity prices turn ugly.

Financial health

A

strength

balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
price stability 60 / 100
long-term debt $19.1B (11% of capital)
net profit margin 25.3% — keeps 25 cents of every dollar in revenue
return on equity 28% — $0.28 profit for every $1 investors have put in

A with balance sheet grade and net profit margin standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.

Total return vs. market

You invested $10,000 in BHP 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,150.

The index would have given you $13,920.

same period. same starting point. BHP trailed the market by $2,770.

source: institutional data · total return

What just happened

beat estimates

Last earnings landed at $2.67 per share versus a $1.47 estimate, which is what a real beat looks like.

The beat was backed by stronger operating performance, with web-reported underlying EBITDA up 25% in the half and interim dividends up 46%. Quiet part out loud: copper did the saving while weaker commodities dragged elsewhere.

$2.67

eps

81.63%

surprise

25%

underlying ebitda growth

the number that mattered

The 81.63% EPS surprise matters because it shows analysts were far behind the actual operating bounce, especially with copper doing the heavy lifting.

if it wasn’t for the fact that bhp is a major copper producer, its results would probably be worse.

as it is, they should be on a par with last year’s figures, perhaps a little lighter at the bottom line. global demand for copper remains strong, thanks to the need for batteries to store electricity for data processing centers, which are springing up all over the western hemisphere. copper is also required for electric batteries used for a wide variety of transportation and storage purposes.
nickel, an element which bhp also produces in bulk, is also needed for battery production.

offsetting the good news is an ongoing lack of demand for metallurgical coal due to its greenhouse gas-emitting nature, and growing cost of extraction. meanwhile iron ore demand has dipped, as china’s economic growth is stalling, and higher tariffs, ongoing inflationary pressures, and economic uncertainties are delaying infrastructure projects.
the company is therefore doubling down on expanding its worldwide copper interests.

to wit, pursuant to the failed attempt to acquire u.k.-based anglo-american plc, bhp turned its attention to forming a $2 billion joint venture with lundin mining. the two are developing the filo del sol copper project in chile and the josemaria endeavor in argentina.
the latter is expected to produce 130,000 tons of copper a year for 19 years.
filo del sol should produce 90,000 tons over 13 years.

readers may be interested in these adrs for their high dividend yield, and mild long-term recuperation potential.

source: company earnings report, 2026

What could go wrong

the #1 risk is china-driven iron ore weakness, because the segment still generates $26.2B and 51% of revenue.

!

high

china-driven iron ore weakness

iron ore is still the core cash engine at $26.2B of revenue. if china stays weak, BHP remains exposed because its largest business is also the one already down 12%.

revenue exposure: 51% of total sales

!

high

copper growth failing to offset the decline

copper is $15.4B and growing 8%, which sounds good until you remember iron ore is $26.2B and shrinking. the transition works only if the smaller segment keeps compounding fast enough to matter.

contrast that matters: 30% of revenue growing vs. 51% declining

∘

med

coal margin pressure and royalty drag

coal still contributes $7.7B of revenue, but demand is weaker and BHP has flagged Queensland royalties as a pressure point. legacy assets can still hurt even when they are no longer the main narrative.

coal is 15% of revenue, so it is not small enough to ignore

∘

med

management transition during a portfolio pivot

a CEO change by mid-2026 would land in the middle of BHP's copper push. strategy shifts are easier to announce than to execute across multibillion-dollar mining projects.

timing risk: leadership change overlaps with the copper buildout

iron ore still drives 51% of revenue at $26.2B. if that business keeps shrinking faster than copper's $15.4B grows, the dividend and the rerating story both get less comfortable.

source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis

Pay attention to

mix shift

copper growth versus iron ore decline

copper is 30% of revenue and growing 8%. iron ore is 51% and down 12%. that gap is the first chart you should check every update.

calendar

next copper-heavy reporting update

after the h1 2026 print, the next question is simple: did copper volumes and guidance keep moving up, or was this one strong stretch?

project pipeline

josemaria + filo del sol execution

josemaria is expected to add 130,000 tons a year for 19 years. filo del sol adds another 90,000 tons over 13 years. projects like these are how the copper thesis becomes real.

risk

china and iron ore pricing

BHP still gets $26.2B from iron ore. until that changes, macro weakness in china remains a company-specific issue, not just background noise.

Analyst rankings

earnings predictability

5 / 100

in human-speak, analysts do not trust this earnings stream to move in a straight line.

balance sheet grade

A

balance sheet grade is a real plus. you are not buying a fragile miner here.

risk rank

3

middle-of-the-road overall risk. safer than the weak operators, still tied to the commodity cycle.

source: institutional data

Institutional activity

institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 325 buyers vs. 232 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.

source: institutional data · 1q2025-3q2025

source: institutional data

Price targets

3-5 year target range

$38 $70

$59 current price

$54 target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $85 (+45% · 15% ann'l return)

source: institutional data · analyst targets

The deep dive

BHP

xvary deep dive

bhp

the full analysis is in the works.

what you'll get

dcf valuation model

bull / base / bear scenarios

competitive moat breakdown

quarterly earnings tracker

operating model projections

risk matrix with kill criteria

original price target + conviction

updated with every earnings

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