XVARY Composite Score
53
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
Start here if you're new
What it is
Brown-Forman makes whiskey, tequila, vodka, gin, and wine, led by Jack Daniel's.
How it gets paid
Last year Bfb made $3.8B in revenue. American whiskey was the main engine at $2.1B, or 52% of sales.
What just happened
Brown-Forman missed by $0.05 a share, with EPS at $0.47 versus $0.52 expected.
At a Glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
85/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
15.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
19.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 53/100 — below average
What They Do
Brown-Forman makes whiskey, tequila, vodka, gin, and wine, led by Jack Daniel's.
Jack Daniel's and Woodford Reserve are old brands, not new ideas. Brown-Forman sells in 170+ countries, and 49% of revenue comes from outside the U.S. That split matters because your local shelf already looks global.
How They Make Money
$3.8B
annual revenue
American whiskey
$2.1B
+3.0%
Tequila
$0.6B
+6.0%
Other spirits
$0.9B
+1.0%
Wine
$0.4B
4.0%
The Products That Matter
Premium whiskey production and sales
jack daniel's & woodford reserve
$4.0B revenue narrative
the current dataset points you to these brands as the center of the story. that's useful as a concentration clue. it does not give you brand-by-brand revenue, so your read on execution has to come from company-level margin and EPS instead.
core story
Key Numbers
$4.0B
FY26 sales
This is the size of the business you are buying. A 1% move here is about $40M.
3.6%
dividend yield
You get paid 3.6% while waiting. That matters more when sales are only growing in the low single digits.
15.8x
trailing p/e
You are paying 15.8 times past earnings for a business with a 24.1% net margin. That is not cheap, but it is not a panic price either.
19.5%
return on capital
Brown-Forman gets 19.5% back on the money it puts to work. That is why the brand machine still matters.
Financial Health
B++
Strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 80 / 100
- long-term debt $2.1B (15% of capital)
- net profit margin 24.1% — keeps 24 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 25% — $0.25 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in BFB 3 years ago → it's now worth $4200.
The index would have given you $13920.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Brown-Forman missed by $0.05 a share, with EPS at $0.47 versus $0.52 expected.
Revenue fell roughly 5% vs. prior year in the October period. EPS also slipped from $0.55 to $0.47.
5.0%
sales vs. last year
$0.47
eps
$0.55
prior eps
the number that mattered
The $0.47 EPS print mattered because it missed $0.52 by 9.6% and showed softer demand.
-
Shares of brown-forman remain depressed, following a multi-year selloff.
-
The company reported unfavorable comparisons for the october period.
-
The top line declined roughly 5%, on a year-to-year basis.
-
Earnings per share of $0.47 came in somewhat below the prior-year level of $0.55.
-
The company's operating environment remains challenging.net sales growth in emerging markets and the travel retail channel was more than offset by weakness in the united states and developed international markets.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. Plain English, no spam.
Weekly updates
Earnings alerts
Plain English
No spam
What Could Go Wrong
The big risk is specific, not theoretical: a 50% EU tariff on american whiskey and spirits. When roughly 25% of sales touch Europe, that is not background noise.
High
European tariff exposure
the EU accounts for about 25% of BFB's sales. If a proposed 50% tariff lands on american goods, brown-forman's second-biggest geographic story gets harder overnight.
direct exposure: roughly $1.0B of annual revenue
Med
Earnings are shrinking faster than sales
full-year EPS fell 10% to $1.65 while the latest quarter still produced $1.1B in revenue and a 21.9% margin. That gap tells you the income statement has less cushion than the brand image suggests.
pressure point: profit recovery has to show up fast enough to support the 3.6% yield story
Med
Brand concentration in the story you are being sold
this snapshot gives you one clear product narrative: jack daniel's and woodford reserve. Even without a full revenue split here, the investment case clearly leans on a narrow set of premium whiskey brands.
concentration signal: the core story sits inside a $4.0B business with limited detail in this dataset
Low
Data visibility is thinner than you would like
the snapshot does not break out brand-level revenue or segment profit. That does not change the business, but it does limit how precisely you can track what is actually working.
analysis cost: you can see the broad picture, not the full operating map
if Europe stays open and EPS climbs from $1.65 toward $1.80, the low multiple starts to look reasonable. If either piece breaks, the "cheap" case gets thin fast.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Risk
EU tariff headlines
if the tariff threat moves from rhetoric to policy, roughly 25% of revenue is in the blast radius.
Metric
EPS recovery toward $1.80
the next question is simple: do earnings move from $1.65 toward the $1.80 estimate, or was that recovery story just optimism on paper.
Trend
Whether revenue growth stays above zero
the latest quarter grew 2% from a year ago. For a slow-growth staples name, slipping below that matters more than polished commentary.
Calendar
Next earnings release
you want to see whether 21.9% quarterly margin holds and whether management sounds more defensive on Europe.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this stock is more likely to lag than lead over the next 12 months.
risk profile
average
stability score 3. Translation: this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a chaos stock either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not giving you a clean reversal signal yet.
earnings predictability
85 / 100
the business is predictable. the market's issue is that predictable does not automatically mean growing.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
282 buyers vs. 319 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$20
$41
$26
Current price
$31
Target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $60 (+130% · 25% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: DCF model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
See plans from $5/moThe Deep Dive