Start here if you're new
what it is
Biodesix sells blood-based lung tests and lab services to doctors and drug companies.
how it gets paid
Last year Biodesix made $88M in revenue. Treatment guidance tests was the main engine at $46.2M, or 52% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 24.1% last year. The quarter was driven by diagnostic test volume and stronger margins.
what just happened
Biodesix's latest report showed $28.8 million of Q4 2025 revenue, up 41%, while adjusted losses narrowed.
At a glance
C+ balance sheet — struggling to keep the lights on
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
-$6.60 fy2024 eps est
$71M fy2024 rev est
~-31.5% operating margin — still losing money at the operating line
xvary composite: 25/100 — weak
What they do
Biodesix sells blood-based lung tests and lab services to doctors and drug companies.
Biodesix wins by staying narrow. It sells five blood-based lung tests in one ugly corner of medicine, and that focus helped push revenue to $88 million in the last 12 months, up 24.1% from SEC filings. Gross margin hit 83% in Q4 2025, according to the company, which is pricing power → keeps more of each sales dollar → so what: if you are right on demand, losses can shrink fast.
How they make money
$88M
annual revenue · their business grew +24.1% last year
Nodule risk tests
$30.8M
Treatment guidance tests
$46.2M
Development services
$11.0M
The products that matter
core diagnostic revenue base
lung diagnostic testing
87% of revenue
this is the business that matters right now. when one testing franchise drives 87% of revenue, growth helps, but mix change matters more than the headline.
the current engine
commercial and development services
development services
~$11M · ~12.5% of TTM
development services are in the revenue table, but they are still small next to testing—real diversification needs this line to grow faster than diagnostics.
diversification watch
menu expansion and new test adoption
advanced MRD + VeriStrat expansion
two named catalysts
management's named growth bets are an advanced MRD test and broader VeriStrat use in new cancer types. if either starts showing up in revenue, the one-test story gets less fragile.
catalyst watch
Key numbers
-$6.60
FY2024 EPS (est.)
EPS → profit per share → so what: shareholders still own a business that lost $6.60 per share in 2024, so the thesis needs losses to keep narrowing.
-31.5%
Operating margin
Negative operating margin → the core business still spends well above operating profit on each sales dollar at this scale.
$72M
Long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over years → so what: that debt load is large next to a roughly $176 million market cap.
$88M
TTM revenue
Trailing revenue → sales from the last 12 months → so what: demand is real, but the company is still tiny.
Financial health
C+
strength
- balance sheet grade C+ — weak — may struggle to fund operations
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $72M (29% of capital)
C+ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for BDSX right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Biodesix's latest report showed $28.8 million of Q4 2025 revenue, up 41%, while adjusted losses narrowed.
The quarter was driven by diagnostic test volume and stronger margins. The company said gross margin reached 83%; adjusted EPS in the feed was still negative (losses narrowed—see KPI). A rich gross margin does not cancel operating and below-the-line losses.
$28.8M
rev (q)
~-$0.49
eps (q · adj.)
83%
gross margin (q)
the number that mattered
83% gross margin mattered most because margin → money kept after direct costs → so what: it shows the core tests can be very profitable if volume keeps scaling.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is revenue concentration in a single lung diagnostic testing franchise. when 87% of revenue sits on one engine, almost every other problem gets louder.
high
Losses still deep
Operating margin was -31.5%, and 2024 EPS was estimated at -$6.60. This is a real business with real revenue, but it still burns through each sales dollar.
A repeat −31.5% operating margin on the ~$88M TTM base in the table implies on the order of ~$28M operating losses—if you use the stale ~$71M FY2024 est. instead, the implied loss is smaller; match the revenue line to the margin line.
high
Debt versus size
Long-term debt is $72 million, or 29% of capital. The market cap is about $176 million, so debt equals roughly 41% of the equity value you are paying for.
$72 million of debt against a $176 million market cap leaves little room for a bad year.
med
Numbers don't line up
Projected 2024 revenue is listed at $71 million in one source, while SEC filings show trailing revenue of $88 million. That is a $17 million gap, so your baseline matters more than usual.
That $17 million difference equals 24% of $71 million.
med
Stock whipsaws
Price stability is 5 out of 100, and risk is ranked 5, the worst bucket. Deadpan fact bomb: the stock is labeled low beta at 0.8 and still gets a 5 out of 100 for stability.
A 5 out of 100 stability score means your entry price can be wrong by double-digit percentages fast.
If revenue keeps climbing and losses keep shrinking, the story works. If not, $72 million of debt and a -31.5% operating margin do the talking.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
concentration
87% from one diagnostic test is still the number
if that share stays this high while revenue grows, you are not getting diversification. you are just scaling dependence.
calendar
may 12, 2026 is the next proof point
consensus expects a loss of $1.17 per share on $23.5M revenue. that report needs to show growth and a cleaner path to operating leverage.
guidance path
$106M–$112M for 2026 sets the bar
the midpoint is $109M. if quarterly revenue slips below the pace implied by that guide, the cheap-on-revenue argument gets thinner fast.
pipeline risk
MRD and VeriStrat need to become more than slide-deck support
those are the two named expansion bets. if they stay aspirational, BDSX stays a one-test company wearing a growth story.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
60 / 100
in human-speak, analysts think you can model the business somewhat, but not comfortably. expect revisions and the occasional sharp reaction.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for BDSX is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$7
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive