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what it is
Bicycle Therapeutics builds tiny lab-made drugs for cancers and other hard-to-treat diseases that standard drugs still miss.
how it gets paid
Last year Bicycle Therapeutics made $35M in revenue. collaboration and license revenue was the main engine at $20M, or 57% of sales.
what just happened
Revenue hit $25M, but EPS fell to -$2.87, which tells you the spending still overwhelms the sales base.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
-$2.90 fy2024 eps est
$35M fy2024 rev est
n/a operating margin
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
What they do
Bicycle Therapeutics builds tiny lab-made drugs for cancers and other hard-to-treat diseases that standard drugs still miss.
Its edge is the Bicycle molecule approach (synthetic short peptides → lab-built mini-proteins shaped into two loops → they can be engineered faster than full antibodies). You are backing one design engine that can feed several drug programs, not one shot on goal. The company is doing that with just 305 employees and only $2 million of long-term debt, which is tiny against a roughly $332 million market cap.
How they make money
$35M
annual revenue
collaboration and license revenue
$20M
+110.0%
zelenectide pevedotin program revenue
$7M
flat
BT5528 program revenue
$4M
flat
radioconjugate platform revenue
$3M
+15.0%
other research revenue
$1M
10.0%
The products that matter
lead clinical program
bt8009
2026 data watch · $332M equity story
This is one of the lead reasons the stock exists. For a company valued at $332M with zero approved drugs, a clean readout matters more than almost any accounting line.
primary catalyst
second major pipeline bet
bt7480
clinical pipeline · $250.7M trailing loss backdrop
This program matters because pipeline depth is the argument for paying a premium multiple today. If BT7480 stalls, the platform story gets narrower fast.
proof of platform
partnership economics
platform collaborations
supports cash runway · offsets burn at the margin
Collaboration revenue is not a substitute for a product business, but it matters when trailing losses are $250.7M. It buys time while the science tries to earn the valuation.
runway support
Key numbers
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. jargon → operating margin → profit after operating costs → so what: Bicycle is still far from self-funding.
$35M
2024 revenue
This is a tiny revenue base for a public biotech, which means every partnership payment and trial update hits hard.
$2M
long-term debt
That debt load is light. The balance sheet problem here is burn, not leverage.
305
employees
You are looking at a small team trying to turn one drug-design engine into several medicines.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $2M (1% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for BCYC right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $25M, but EPS fell to -$2.87, which tells you the spending still overwhelms the sales base.
Revenue rose 110% vs. prior year in the latest quarter, while annual revenue was only $35 million. Quiet part loud: one good collaboration quarter does not fix a business running at a n/a operating margin.
$25M
quarter revenue
$2.87
eps
$35M
ttm revenue
the number that mattered
The key number was $25 million of quarterly revenue, because it shows BCYC can still pull in real money even while losses stay heavy.
source: EDGAR filing and quarterly data, 2025
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk is clinical disappointment in BT8009 or BT7480. BCYC does not have a commercial base to absorb bad data, and the stock already carries a premium valuation at 29x sales.
high
cash burn problem
Operating margin n/a (verify filings) on $35 million of 2024 revenue. jargon → operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: the company is still burning cash hard.
A 20% stock drop would erase about $66 million from a roughly $332 million market cap.
high
clinical trial failure
This is still a pipeline story. If lead programs stumble, the revenue base is too small at $35 million to absorb it.
A 30% rerating would cut about $100 million from equity value based on a $332 million market cap.
med
lumpy revenue base
Latest-quarter revenue was $25 million, while annual revenue was $35 million. That gap tells you revenue is event-driven, not steady.
If quarterly revenue falls back by 50%, that is about a $12.5 million hit versus the latest quarter.
The setup is simple: if the science works, the stock can work. If it doesn't, the current $332 million market cap is not much protection.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
BT8009 data is still the event that matters
Interim or final data readouts are expected in 2026. For BCYC, this is less a headline and more the valuation referendum.
cash burn
Watch whether the 30% cost-cutting program shows up in the numbers
A cost reset only matters if the burn rate actually bends. If it does not, the next financing question arrives sooner.
street view
The Feb. 3 downgrade reset sentiment without settling the science
A visible $11 target still sits above the stock, but target prices matter less than whether analyst language gets firmer after the next update.
financing risk
Losses this large can turn clinical delays into dilution risk
$250.7M in trailing losses against a $332M market cap leaves very little room for dead time between catalysts.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
65 / 100
in human-speak, this is still a company where reported numbers matter less than pipeline milestones.
risk profile
4 / 5
Risk rank 4 means this is riskier than most listed stocks. Clinical-stage biotech tends to earn that honestly.
price stability
10 / 100
This does not trade like a steady compounder. It trades like a binary outcomes machine.
coverage depth
thin
The snapshot shows one visible downgrade and target, but not a full target range. Thin coverage means every new note can move sentiment harder.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for BCYC is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$7
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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