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what it is
Boise Cascade makes wood building products and then sells them through its own distribution network across the U.S. and Canada.
how it gets paid
Last year Boise Cascade made $6.4B in revenue. BMD general line products was the main engine at $2.75B, or 43% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 4.8% last year. The company’s sales declined 7%, to $1.46 billion, and net income fell to $8.7 million from $68.9 million a year before.
what just happened
Q4 was still ugly: sales fell 7% to $1.46B, but EPS of $0.24 beat the $0.22 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
22.8x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Boise Cascade makes wood building products and then sells them through its own distribution network across the U.S. and Canada.
Vertically integrated → it makes wood products and distributes them itself → so what: Boise keeps the customer relationship and the shelf space. That matters because about 75% of 2025 Wood Products volume went to its own BMD channel, which gives you a built-in buyer when housing gets messy. The distribution side also held up better than manufacturing in Q4, with sales down 5% versus total company sales down 7%, which is exactly the kind of contrast you want in a cyclical business.
How they make money
$6.4B
annual revenue · their business grew -4.8% last year
BMD general line products
$2.75B
+1.0%
BMD commodity wood products
$2.10B
6.0%
Engineered wood products
$0.95B
10.0%
Plywood and veneer
$0.45B
15.0%
Other building materials and services
$0.15B
+2.0%
The products that matter
wood products and distribution
Building Materials
$6.4B revenue
it's the entire $6.4B business, and revenue slipped 4.8% last year. this snapshot does not show a hidden high-margin segment because there probably isn't one — the investment case is the cycle.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
22.8x
trailing p/e
You are paying 22.8 times trailing earnings for a company whose EPS fell from $9.57 to $3.53 in one year.
8.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit before interest and taxes → so what: this tells you how much cushion Boise has before the cycle gets worse.
12.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested in the business → so what: Boise is still earning more than average industrial dead weight.
$445M
long-term debt
Debt is 13% of capital, which gives Boise more room than a heavily borrowed housing supplier if demand stays weak.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $445M (13% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.7% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BCC 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,560.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Q4 was still ugly: sales fell 7% to $1.46B, but EPS of $0.24 beat the $0.22 estimate.
Net income fell to $8.7M from $68.9M a year earlier as housing and pricing stayed weak. Distribution held up better than manufacturing, helped by general line product sales.
$1.46B
revenue
$0.24
eps
8.0%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The real number was $8.7M in Q4 net income, down from $68.9M, because that tells you how fast profits can evaporate when housing rolls over.
-
boise cascade’s poor 2025 fourth-quarter performance marks a new low point.
-
earnings fell as housing and pricing stayed weak at the end of the year.
-
the company’s sales declined 7%, to $1.46 billion, and net income fell to $8.7 million from $68.9 million a year before.
-
the distribution segment held up better than manufacturing, with sales down 5%, helped by general line product sales rising 3%, even as commodity sales fell 9%, and engineered wood sales dropped 14%.
-
wood products was the weak spot as both prices and volumes declined, including low-double-digit price drops in lvl and ijoists and a 6% vs. prior year drop in plywood pricing.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is US housing starts staying weak while wood-product pricing falls.
med
housing market downturn
a decline in new housing starts directly cuts demand for Boise's wood products and distribution network. this business follows builders, not wishful thinking.
the current risk framework points to more than $300M of revenue pressure from a 5% drop in new housing starts.
med
commodity price volatility in lumber and engineered wood
pricing moves hit both the manufacturing side and distribution profits. recent low-double-digit price declines in LVL and I-joists show how quickly that happens.
with a 2.8% net margin, Boise does not need a dramatic price collapse to feel real earnings pain.
med
earnings recovery that never really arrives
the stock is leaning on a rebound from $3.53 in 2025 EPS to a $4.00 estimate and from $6.4B revenue to a $7B estimate. if those numbers slip, the valuation case gets thinner.
a business trading at 22.8x trailing earnings leaves less room for disappointment than the word “commodity” usually suggests.
a 5% drop in housing starts could erase more than $300M of revenue, and recent 2.1% quarterly margin tells you profit would feel it fast.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
margin recovery
quarterly margin was 2.1% and full-year net margin was 2.8%. if those numbers do not improve, EPS recovery gets hard to believe.
trend
revenue path from $6.4B toward $7B
the street expects $7B in revenue. watch whether the business actually starts climbing off the current $6.4B base.
risk
housing demand
a 5% drop in new housing starts can mean more than $300M of revenue pressure. this is the macro input that matters most.
next report
whether $0.58 quarterly EPS was the trough
if the next few reports still look like $1.7B revenue and $0.58 EPS, this remains a cycle trade, not a rerating story.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts see a stock moving normally, not one with a strong near-term signal.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — roughly middle-of-the-pack risk, which makes sense for a cyclical industrial name.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — no strong trend is taking control here. the chart is waiting for fundamentals.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
earnings predictability is weak. translated: when housing or pricing moves, quarterly numbers can move harder.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 108 buyers vs. 130 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 33.9M shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$62
$135
$81
current price
$99
target midpoint · +23% from current · 3-5yr high: $145 (+80% · 17% ann'l return)
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