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what it is
BigBear.ai sells software and engineering tools that help defense and government teams sort data, predict outcomes, and make decisions faster.
how it gets paid
Last year Bigbear.Ai Hldgs made $128M in revenue. Analytics applications was the main engine at $38M, or 30% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 19.3% last year. 22.8% gross margin matters most because low gross profit leaves very little cushion for a company already posting a -n/a operating margin.
what just happened
Revenue hit $100M, but the bigger story is that profitability still looks broken.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
-$1.27 fy2024 eps est
$158M fy2024 rev est
n/a operating margin
1.35 beta
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
BigBear.ai sells software and engineering tools that help defense and government teams sort data, predict outcomes, and make decisions faster.
BigBear.ai wins where failure is expensive. Mission-critical operations (jobs that cannot fail → buyers care more about reliability than price → contracts can stick) give it room to compete despite its size. It has just 630 employees, but it already serves the DoD, DHS, and U.S. intelligence agencies, which means your replacement has to clear hard procurement and security hurdles first.
How they make money
$128M
annual revenue · their business grew -19.3% last year
Data curation applications
$32M
Analytics applications
$38M
Guidance applications
$26M
Cyber engineering services
$32M
The products that matter
federal decision-support and analytics
Government & Defense AI
$~100M · roughly 78% of revenue
this is still the core business. it generated about $100M of annual revenue mix, but Q4 revenue fell 38% to $27.3M when U.S. Army volumes declined.
core revenue base
generative ai knowledge platform
Ask Sage
$250M acquisition · dec 2025
the company paid $250M for Ask Sage in December 2025. that is a large bet for a business with a ~$2B market cap and $158M in annual revenue.
turnaround pivot
new non-defense expansion
Commercial & International
$~28M · roughly 22% of revenue
this piece is only about $28M today. if the pivot works, this number has to matter a lot more than it does now.
proof needed
Key numbers
n/a
operating margin
Prior margin KPI failed sanity check — verify in filings. Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: BigBear.ai loses about $1.68 for every $1 of sales.
$128M
annual revenue
This is the actual sales base from EDGAR, and it matters because the market values those sales at roughly 15.6 times revenue on a near-$2B market cap.
$112M
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over years → so what: debt equals 6% of capital, which is manageable, but it still sits on a business with negative earnings.
22.8%
gross margin
Gross margin → what is left after direct costs → so what: there is not much room to absorb overhead when the business keeps losing money.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $112M (6% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for BBAI right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $100M, but the bigger story is that profitability still looks broken.
EDGAR shows quarterly revenue up 203% vs. prior year, while EPS fell to -$0.87. Gross margin was just 22.8%, so the company is not converting growth into durable earnings.
$100M
revenue
$0.87
eps
22.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
22.8% gross margin matters most because low gross profit leaves very little cushion for a company already posting a -n/a operating margin.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is more defense-contract slippage after the U.S. Army volume drop.
med
government concentration is still the whole income statement
roughly 78% of revenue comes from Government & Defense. Q4 revenue then fell 38% to $27.3M when Army volumes weakened. that is concentration risk with the mask off.
if more program work slips, the current $135M–$165M 2026 revenue target gets harder to defend fast.
med
Ask Sage has to justify a $250M price tag
the company spent $250M on Ask Sage in December 2025 to accelerate commercial and international growth. that is a large swing for a business doing $158M in annual revenue.
if integration stalls or bookings do not show up, a big chunk of the strategic pivot becomes expensive dead weight.
med
the valuation assumes better numbers than the company has today
at 10.58x forward sales and with gross margin at 22.8%, the stock is being treated like a much cleaner software model than the current financials suggest.
another weak quarter would pressure both the revenue line and the multiple investors are willing to pay for it.
with quarterly revenue at $27.3M, gross margin at 22.8%, and the stock at 10.58x forward sales, there is not much room for another stumble.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings report
management needs to show the 38% revenue drop was tied to a specific program issue, not a broader demand problem.
guidance
the $135M–$165M 2026 revenue range
the high end would show momentum after a $128M 2025. the low end says the turnaround is still mostly presentation.
mix shift
commercial and international revenue
this is only about 22% of revenue today. if the pivot is real, that share needs to move up from here.
margin
gross margin above 22.8%
AI stories with software multiples usually show better unit economics than this. margin improvement would be an early sign the business model is getting cleaner.
Analyst rankings
beta
1.35
in human-speak, this stock tends to move more than the market. not extreme by meme-stock standards, but nowhere near defensive.
risk rank
3
that sits around the middle on basic safety. the balance sheet is serviceable, but the operating story is still unstable.
price stability
5 / 100
this is low. translated: the stock has not behaved like something you can quietly forget in a portfolio.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for BBAI is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$4
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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