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what it is
Ball makes the aluminum cans and packaging you see in your fridge, bathroom, and cleaning cabinet.
how it gets paid
Last year Ball made $13.2B in revenue. Beverage packaging, North America was the main engine at $5.8B, or 44% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 11.6% last year. The penny miss matters because Ball's momentum rank is already 4.
what just happened
Ball's latest quarter showed $0.91 in EPS, a one-cent miss versus the $0.92 consensus.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
75/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
18.6x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Ball makes the aluminum cans and packaging you see in your fridge, bathroom, and cleaning cabinet.
You do not casually replace a supplier that shipped 48 billion beverage containers in North America in 2024. Ball also runs 16 U.S. plants and 51 international facilities, which is scale → a huge manufacturing footprint → customers get reliability. That matters when Anheuser-Busch InBev was 16% of 2024 sales and Coca-Cola bottlers were 13%, because big buyers want the boring stuff to work every day.
How they make money
$13.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +11.6% last year
Beverage packaging, North America
$5.8B
+6.0%
Beverage packaging, EMEA
$3.6B
+4.0%
Beverage packaging, South America
$1.9B
+9.0%
Aerosol and personal care packaging
$1.2B
+3.0%
Other packaging and corporate
$0.7B
0.0%
The products that matter
manufactures and sells beverage cans
Beverage Cans (Americas)
$6.6B revenue · core driver
it's the biggest disclosed piece of the story at $6.6B in revenue, supported by a system producing over 120 billion cans annually. if this engine slows, the whole stock feels it.
volume-driven
manufactures and sells beverage cans
Beverage Cans (EMEA/APAC)
$13.2B company base · 11.6% growth
international demand matters because the company-wide revenue base is already $13.2B. if Ball keeps growing from here, more of it has to come from markets outside its core North American footprint.
global demand
makes aluminum cups and aerosol packaging
Aluminum Cups & Aerosol
adjacency bet · 7.4% company margin
these smaller formats matter because Ball only keeps 7.4% of revenue as net profit. in a thin-margin business, even modest mix improvement matters more than it sounds.
mix upside
Key numbers
17.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Ball turns a commodity-looking can business into real profit.
13.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: Ball is decent, not magical, at turning factories into earnings.
$7.0B
long-term debt
Debt → borrowed money that must be serviced → so what: leverage amplifies good execution and punishes bad quarters.
$4.50
FY2027 EPS est.
EPS estimate → expected profit per share → so what: the stock at $66.42 is trading around 14.8x that forecast.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $7.0B (28% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.0% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 25% — $0.25 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BALL 3 years ago → it's now worth $12,370.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Ball's latest quarter showed $0.91 in EPS, a one-cent miss versus the $0.92 consensus.
Full-year EPS still reached $3.57 versus $3.17 in 2024. SEC figures showed revenue of $9.8B and EPS of $2.56 in the latest quarter, which looks distorted next to the normalized quarterly history after portfolio changes.
$9.8B
revenue
$2.56
eps
4.9%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The penny miss matters because Ball's momentum rank is already 4, so near-perfect execution is doing more work than the valuation story.
-
new management at ball corporation has outlined its long-term strategy.
-
in november, ron lewis took over the reins as chief executive officer and replaced the chief financial officer.
-
about six years ago mr.
-
lewis came over from coca-cola after a 20-year career there.
-
while at ball, mr.lewis ran the european & middle east operations and then was promoted to chief operating officer of the company, bringing a clear vision to the leadership role.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is slowing global beverage can volume growth.
high
volume growth cools
Ball grew revenue 11.6% last year. if beverage can demand slows, the recent earnings improvement loses its easiest support.
this touches the full $13.2B revenue base because cans are the core business, not a side segment
med
thin margins leave little room
a 7.4% net margin is workable, not forgiving. weaker mix, cost pressure, or customer pushback do not need to be dramatic to show up in earnings.
Ball keeps only about 7 cents of profit on each $1 of revenue, so small changes hit harder than they look
high
debt limits flexibility
the balance sheet still carries $7.0B in long-term debt, or 28% of capital. that looks manageable when volumes are steady and less comfortable if growth cools at the same time.
debt is large enough to matter because the stock already trades above the $60 midpoint target
Ball's risk stack is simple: $13.2B of revenue, a 7.4% net margin, and $7.0B of debt. If volumes soften or margins slip, earnings have less protection than the defensive-packaging label implies.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
revenue growth near +11.6%
Ball's recent momentum came from keeping the top line moving on a $13.2B base. if that growth rate fades, the valuation case gets thinner fast.
risk
margin discipline
the last quarter printed 16.5% margin while the full-year net margin was 7.4%. that gap tells you the stock is more sensitive to execution than the product makes it seem.
earnings
next report versus the $3.95 EPS setup
analysts are looking for $3.95 in fiscal 2026 EPS. if Ball reaches it without revenue moving toward the $14B estimate, then the margin story is doing more work than volume.
flow
institutional selling streak
three straight quarters of net selling is not panic. it is a quiet sign that big holders want more proof before they pay up for a steady packaging name.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts think BALL is acting like a normal stock right now, not a breakout.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — you are not buying chaos, but you are not buying a utility either.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the tape looks softer than the latest earnings narrative.
earnings predictability
75 / 100
management usually lands close to expectations. that matters when you own the stock for steadiness more than upside drama.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 264 buyers vs. 294 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$39
$80
$66
current price
$60
target midpoint · 10% from current · 3-5yr high: $165 (+150% · 26% ann'l return)
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