Start here if you're new
what it is
Bridger uses aircraft to spot wildfires early, direct crews, and dump water where the fire is trying to get expensive.
how it gets paid
Last year Bridger Aerospace made $123M in revenue. Fire suppression was the main engine at $74M, or 60% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 24.6% last year. The quarter showed strong top-line demand and a 50.1% gross margin.
what just happened
Revenue jumped 68% vs. prior year to $114M, but EPS still came in at -$0.02.
At a glance
C balance sheet — red flag territory — real financial stress
-$0.81 fy2024 eps est
$99M fy2024 rev est
4.3% operating margin
0.9 beta
xvary composite: 25/100 — weak
What they do
Bridger uses aircraft to spot wildfires early, direct crews, and dump water where the fire is trying to get expensive.
When a fire starts, you hire whoever already has aircraft, pilots, and clearances ready. Bridger says it operates a 19-aircraft fleet and has 191 employees, which is a real head start in a business where delays cost acres. It also bought 2 CL-215T amphibious aircraft in December 2025, so if your edge is readiness, adding planes is the edge.
How they make money
$123M
annual revenue · their business grew +24.6% last year
Fire suppression
$74M
Manned aerial surveillance
$22M
Unmanned aerial surveillance
$9M
Aircraft services and other
$18M
The products that matter
flies wildfire suppression missions
Aerial Firefighting Fleet
19 aircraft · core asset base
The 19-aircraft fleet is the business. It supported a company that generated $122.8M in full-year 2025 revenue, so aircraft availability is not a side detail. It is the revenue engine.
19 aircraft
locks in public-sector work
Government Contracts
$18.6M over 5 years
A new $18.6M, 5-year Alaska DOI contract adds to a $14M backlog. Helpful, yes. Big enough to settle the entire BAER debate, no.
$14M backlog
adds scoop-and-drop capacity
Super Scoopers
new aircraft added
Management is adding new Super Scoopers to lift capacity. Here's the thing: more planes only matter if they turn into enough revenue and cash to justify the capital structure already in place.
capacity bet
Key numbers
$207M
long-term debt
Debt this large versus a $112M market cap means your upside only matters if the balance sheet stops being the main character.
$123M
annual revenue
The company generated more sales than its entire market value, which is cheap if margins improve and a trap if they do not.
50.1%
gross margin
Gross margin means sales minus direct operating costs. Half the revenue stayed after those costs, so the problem is not demand. It is overhead and debt.
4.3%
operating margin
Operating margin means what is left after running the business. Only 4.3 cents on the dollar survived, which is thin for a company carrying $207M of debt.
Financial health
C
strength
- balance sheet grade C — very weak — significant financial distress
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $207M (65% of capital)
C — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for BAER right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue jumped 68% vs. prior year to $114M, but EPS still came in at -$0.02.
The quarter showed strong top-line demand and a 50.1% gross margin. The quiet part is that fast revenue growth still did not turn into durable earnings.
$114M
revenue
$0.02
eps
50.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 50.1% gross margin mattered most because it says the service itself can make money. The leak is below gross profit.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The main risk is specific: a seasonal wildfire operator with $207M of long-term debt does not need many weak quarters for the equity story to feel smaller.
high
the debt stack is bigger than the equity story
Bridger carries $207M of long-term debt, equal to 65% of capital, against a market cap of about $112M. That is a lot of fixed obligation for a company this size.
Debt is roughly 1.8x the equity value at today's price.
med
guidance now carries the burden of proof
Management guided to $135M–$145M of 2026 revenue after delivering $122.8M in 2025. The market just knocked the stock down 13.3% on a quarter that missed EPS by $0.10.
When expectations climb, even a small miss gets treated like a bigger problem.
med
visibility is still modest
The Alaska DOI win is worth $18.6M over five years, and backlog stands at $14M. Useful proof of demand, yes. Full revenue visibility for a $122.8M business, no.
A few delayed awards leave investors debating the next season instead of underwriting steady scale.
med
fleet readiness drives the revenue line
With 19 aircraft, uptime matters. In a business this concentrated, a grounded plane during peak demand is operationally important, not accounting noise.
If aircraft are not ready when demand is there, the growth story gets judged against the same debt load anyway.
You own a company with real demand and specialized assets, but the capital structure leaves less margin for error than the growth pitch suggests.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
2026 revenue pacing
Management guided to $135M–$145M after posting $122.8M in 2025. If quarterly results do not track toward that range, the market will stop granting the growth story extra patience.
risk
debt and runway
$207M of long-term debt and a 1.1-year cash runway mean financing decisions matter almost as much as firefighting demand.
calendar
fire season readiness
With 19 aircraft, maintenance, availability, and deployment timing matter. In this business, a grounded plane during peak demand is not a rounding error.
trend
contract wins versus backlog
The new $18.6M Alaska contract helps, but backlog is only $14M. You want to see that number climb if management is going to prove the fleet can stay busy beyond one season.
Analyst rankings
coverage
thin
Broad sell-side coverage looks limited here. in human-speak, you should expect less consensus and more volatility.
forecast confidence
low
With sparse coverage and a small-cap operating model, analyst numbers matter less than execution against management's own guidance.
what that means
do the work
This is not a stock where a neat target does the thinking for you. The quarterly cadence, contract flow, and debt picture are the real ranking system.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for BAER is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$3
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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