Start here if you're new
what it is
Boeing builds commercial jets, military aircraft, weapons, and aviation services for airlines and governments.
how it gets paid
Last year Boeing made $89.5B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 34.5% last year, helped by improved operational performance and higher deliveries.
what just happened
Boeing posted about $23.9B in Q4 revenue, ahead of expectations, but adjusted EPS missed (wider loss than consensus) even as GAAP EPS was lifted by a one-time gain.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
~98x trailing p/e on FY25 GAAP EPS — inflated by the Q4 divestiture gain
4.8% FY operating margin — up from deep 2024 losses, still thin
xvary composite: 46/100 — below average
What they do
Boeing builds commercial jets, military aircraft, weapons, and aviation services for airlines and governments.
Boeing wins because big jet manufacturing is a tiny club, and scale matters once regulators, suppliers, and airlines are all tied together. Boeing already has monthly output at 42 for the 737 and 8 for the 787, which means your rival needs years to match installed capacity. Foreign sales were 46% of total in 2024, so the customer base is global, not local.
How they make money
$89.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +34.5% last year
total revenue
$89.5B
+34.5%
The products that matter
single-aisle commercial jets
737 MAX family
42 monthly build rate today
this is the production line everyone watches. Boeing is running at 42 a month and wants approval to move to 47. The MAX 10 still needs FAA certification, so a large part of the recovery remains regulatory as much as industrial.
certification matters
wide-body commercial jets
787 program
8 monthly build rate today
the 787 line is running at 8 a month, with management preparing for 10. That sounds incremental. On a backlog measured in 6,100 commercial planes, small rate changes become big cash-flow changes.
rate leverage
defense, space, and portfolio ballast
defense and space systems
part of the $89.5B total
this snapshot does not provide the segment split, so we will not pretend otherwise. What you can say from the data is that Boeing delivered $89.5B of total revenue with roughly a 2.5% net margin in 2025—profitable on paper but still a turnaround story under the hood.
numbers are thin
Key numbers
34.5%
sales growth
Sales growth → more money coming in each year → so what: the bull case needs delivery gains to turn into real revenue.
4.8%
FY operating margin
Operating margin → what’s left after producing and delivering → so what: 2025 improved from 2024, but commercial segments can still post operating losses.
$54.1B
consolidated debt
Total debt → what the company owes across maturities → so what: Spirit AeroSystems and recovery spending kept leverage in focus at year-end 2025.
~$127B
2029 revenue est.
Analyst consensus revenue for fiscal 2029 clusters near the mid‑$120s billions (sources vary)—well above today’s $89.5B, so a lot of recovery is already in forward models.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $54.1B consolidated (year-end 2025)
- net profit margin ~2.5% — keeps about 2–3 cents of every revenue dollar (FY 2025)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in BA 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,270.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed adj. estimates
Boeing posted revenue of $23.9B in Q4 2025, beating the street, but adjusted EPS missed (wider loss than expected).
Full-year revenue grew about 34% vs. prior year to $89.5B, helped by deliveries and operations. On an adjusted basis, Q4 EPS was about a $1.12 loss versus roughly a $0.39 loss expected (LSEG). GAAP EPS was $10.23, reflecting a $9.6B gain on the Digital Aviation Solutions sale.
$23.9B
Q4 revenue
−$1.12
adj. EPS (Q4)
$10.23
GAAP EPS (Q4)
the number that mattered
The adjusted loss versus consensus showed how much of the headline GAAP print came from the divestiture—not from a fully normalized airplane business.
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rising aircraft deliveries augur well for boeing’s revenues.
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following lower production in past years, due to regulatory restrictions brought on by quality issues, the company’s commercial aircraft business improved operations and delivered 600 planes in 2025.output rates for key models have risen, and management is working to gain approvals for higher production.
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the monthly rates for narrow-body 737s and wide-body 787s stand at 42 and 8, respectively.management is expanding capacity in preparation for possible increases in the 737 rate to 47 and the 787 rate to 10.
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that would help to meet customer orders.
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at the close of 2025, total backlog was $682 billion, or 6,100 commercial planes.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is production recovery failing to stick. Boeing can point to $682B of backlog all day. If regulators, suppliers, or factory quality issues keep output constrained, the backlog stays a promise instead of becoming cash.
med
737 max 10 certification slips again
The MAX 10 is still waiting on FAA certification. That matters because Boeing is already trying to lift 737 output from 42 planes a month to 47. If certification drags, one of the most important pieces of the narrow-body recovery stays parked.
A delay would not just hit one model. It would weaken the broader case that Boeing can convert a 6,100-plane backlog into delivered aircraft on schedule.
med
the $4.7B spirit aerosystems acquisition gets constrained
Boeing wants more control over a critical supplier. Regulators may want less. FTC and UK scrutiny make this more than a paperwork issue because Boeing is counting on the deal to stabilize a supply chain that has already hurt production.
If the transaction is delayed, blocked, or heavily altered, the company loses part of the integration plan behind its production reset.
med
the debt load keeps the turnaround expensive
Consolidated debt was about $54.1B at year-end 2025. That is more manageable if deliveries and cash flow keep improving. Earnings quality still matters: FY 2025 GAAP EPS was $2.48 and core EPS $1.19—both lifted by one-time items—while commercial segments can still post operating losses.
When your balance sheet is this levered, mistakes compound faster. A few more bad quarters would matter more here than at a cleaner industrial peer.
med
china demand remains a swing factor
China exposure is real, but this snapshot does not provide a clean revenue number tied to it. We are not going to invent one. The practical point is simpler: for a company with thousands of planes in backlog, any deterioration in cross-border aircraft demand or approvals can slow delivery timing.
This is a timing and mix risk more than a neatly quantifiable one from the data shown here. Thin disclosure does not make the risk smaller.
Put the pieces together and the math is straightforward: ~$54B of consolidated debt, earnings that still lean on one-time gains, and a recovery that depends on moving from 42 to 47 monthly 737 output leave little room for another self-inflicted delay.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
737 rate progress
42 a month is the current level. 47 is the next step. If Boeing cannot earn that increase cleanly, the turnaround math gets harder.
risk
spirit deal outcomes
Follow FTC and UK decisions on the $4.7B Spirit AeroSystems acquisition. Supply-chain control is part of the bull case now.
calendar
next earnings release
The next report needs to show more than better headlines. Watch delivery pace, operating margin direction, and whether core earnings can strengthen without another large asset sale.
trend
backlog conversion
$682B of backlog is impressive. It becomes investable only if delivered planes keep rising from the 600 logged in 2025.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this stock has more ways to disappoint than outperform in the near term.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — neither bunker-safe nor meltdown-tier, but definitely not a calm industrial compounding story.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not giving you a heroic signal here. This is still an execution stock first.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
expect surprises. A 15 / 100 score means the business has not earned the market's trust in forward estimates.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 1,232 buyers vs. 810 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.6B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$111
$315
$243
current price
$213
target midpoint · 12% from current · 3-5yr high: $440 (+80% · 16% ann'l return)
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