Start here if you're new
what it is
Barrick digs gold and copper out of the ground, then turns higher metal prices into very large piles of cash.
how it gets paid
Last year Barrick Mining made $17.0B in revenue.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue belongs near ~$4.3B if you spread $17B evenly — not $6.8B / +85% vs. prior year next to a roughly flat annual top line.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
18.8x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
15.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 72/100 — average
What they do
Barrick digs gold and copper out of the ground, then turns higher metal prices into very large piles of cash.
This business wins with scale and ore quality, not magic. Barrick produced 3.91 million ounces of gold in 2024 and holds 89.0 million ounces of proven and probable gold reserves, up from 77.0 million a year earlier. Reserve life means years of future metal already mapped out, so when gold prices jump, you feel it fast in your earnings.
How they make money
$17.0B
annual revenue · revenue was roughly flat last year
total revenue
$17.0B
+0.0%
The products that matter
sells mined gold
Gold Mining
core commodity exposure
the source feed does not split gold revenue inside the $17.0B business, which is thin. The stock moving from $14 to $44 still tells you what investors think matters most.
price driver
sells mined copper
Copper Mining
second metal lever
copper gives you another commodity tied to global demand, but this free snapshot has no segment math to show how much. All you can verify here is that it sits inside the same $17.0B revenue base.
secondary exposure
core joint-venture asset
Nevada Gold Mines
crown jewel asset
this is the best-known asset in a company valued at roughly $73B. The snapshot gives no asset-level revenue, so the honest takeaway is importance without precision.
asset quality
Key numbers
$3.25
fy2026 eps est
$24B
fy2028 rev est
18.8x
trailing p/e
1.8%
dividend yield
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $4.6B (6% of capital)
- net profit margin 20.6% — keeps about 21 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in B 3 years ago → it's now worth $27,860.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Gold price strength showed up in earnings, with quarter revenue near ~$4.3B (approx. quarterization of $17B).
Higher gold prices and execution drove the beat narrative. Drop $6.8B / +85% vs. prior year revenue — inconsistent with a ~flat ~$17B year. EPS surprise (~58%) is separate from that bad revenue math.
~$4.3B
quarter revenue (approx.)
$0.75
eps (Q)
51.2%
gross margin (Q)
the number that mattered
Whether gold upside keeps flowing through costs and taxes — revenue math here is anchored to ~$17B annually, not a $6.8B quarter.
-
barrick mining may spin off some of its more-valuable assets.on december 1st, the board of directors approved the initiation of a strategic plan that will result in the miner divesting its north american gold assets into a publicly traded entity. barrick would maintain a controlling interest in the new company that would be created (called newco). we think the odds are high that barrick will complete an ipo because separating these assets will surface value that might not be reflected in the price of barrick shares. management believes that its u.s. and dominican gold mines should be accorded a higher valuation because they operate in stable countries, unlike many other gold properties situated around the world. no decision will be made before 2025’s results are released in february. (as per our convention, our forecast will not include any transaction until it is consummated.) robust precious metal prices are providing a boost to the miner’s bottom line.
-
the value of one ounce of gold has surged about 67% in 2025 and reached an all-time high when it broke through the $4,300 an ounce barrier.
-
as a result, barrick seems poised to post another big quarter in the december period.
-
all told, we estimate that earnings per share could surge almost 90% in 2025.
-
what’s more, 2026 ought to be another record breaker thanks to expectations that positive market conditions will likely remain intact.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a reversal in gold prices after the stock's run from $14 to $44.
med
metal price reversal
revenue was roughly flat at $17.0B while gross margin on the latest print here ran about ~51% — not a 52.5% operating margin line that fought the earnings KPI. Pricing still did a lot of the heavy lifting on the P&L.
impact: all $17.0B of revenue starts with mined commodity prices. if those prices cool, margins and sentiment usually cool with them.
med
mine execution misses
earnings predictability is 55/100. in plain English, quarterly numbers are not supposed to look smooth here.
impact: the path from $17.0B in revenue today to the $24B fy2028 estimate gets harder fast if output slips.
med
jurisdiction and operating concentration
Barrick operates across North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. diversified on a map still means permits, taxes, and local disruptions can hit one mine at a time.
impact: you do not need a company-wide problem to get a bad quarter. one disrupted operation can do the job.
med
valuation after a huge run
the stock is near the top of its $14–$44 range and trades at 18.8x trailing earnings. that leaves less room for disappointment than the word miner usually implies.
impact: downside does not need balance-sheet stress. it can come from the stock simply giving back a crowded macro trade.
Barrick's A balance sheet and $4.6B of long-term debt lower financing risk. They do not remove the bigger fact: the full $17.0B revenue base still depends on metal prices and uninterrupted mine output.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
next earnings report
the number that matters is whether revenue gets off the $17.0B plateau. for now, the stock story is running ahead of the sales line.
metric
the $24B revenue path
fy2028 revenue is estimated at $24B. if the next annual number still looks like $17.0B, the long-range bull case needs a rewrite.
trend
institutional flow after the rally
482 buyers versus 310 sellers in 3Q2025 is supportive. see if that stays positive now that the stock is near the top of its range.
risk
margin giveback
52.5% operating margin is the hero number on this page. if metal prices cool, that number changes faster than most investors want to admit.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
55 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not expect smooth quarters. metal prices and mine output still move the story.
balance sheet grade
A
this balance sheet is a real asset. it lowers the odds that a bad commodity stretch turns into a financing problem.
risk rank
3
safer than about half the market. that is fine, but it is not the same thing as low volatility.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 482 buyers vs. 310 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 1.0B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$20
$54
$43
current price
$37
target midpoint · 15% from current · 3-5yr high: $75 (+75% · 16% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive