XVARY Composite Score
60
/ 100
Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
Start here if you're new
What it is
AutoZone sells the parts you need when your car breaks and you need it fixed before dinner.
How it gets paid
Last year Autozone made $18.9B in revenue. u.s. retail stores was the main engine at $9.54B, or 50% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 2.4% last year. Latest quarterly revenue was $4.6B, up 8% vs.
What just happened
AutoZone printed $48.71 in quarterly EPS, below the $53.83 estimate, even as revenue climbed.
At a Glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
95/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
22.6x trailing p/e — priced about right
46.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
XVARY composite: 60/100 — average
What They Do
AutoZone sells the parts you need when your car breaks and you need it fixed before dinner.
When your battery dies, you do not comparison-shop for a week. AutoZone has 6,627 U.S. stores, plus 883 in Mexico and 147 in Brazil, so the part is usually nearby. Commercial sales program → selling to repair shops → so what: it already reaches 6,098 domestic stores, which makes the network harder to copy.
How They Make Money
$18.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +2.4% last year
u.s. retail stores
$9.54B
+2.4%
u.s. commercial
$6.24B
+8.0%
mexico stores
$2.19B
+8.0%
brazil stores
$0.36B
+8.0%
alldata and online
$0.57B
+2.4%
The Products That Matter
Consumer parts and accessories
DIY Retail
$16.8B · 89% of revenue
it is the center of gravity. this $16.8B business drives 89% of revenue, and same-store sales rose 3.4% in the latest quarter.
89% of revenue
Parts for repair shops
Commercial
$1.7B · +8.2%
this $1.7B segment grew 8.2% from a year ago. it is only 9% of revenue, but it is growing faster than the rest of the business.
fastest grower
Small overseas footprint
International
$0.4B · flat
at $0.4B, it is too small to drive the stock today. flat growth tells you the international story is still thin.
small optionality
Key Numbers
46.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on the money used in the business → so what: AutoZone turns each corporate dollar into unusually high profit.
23.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → what is left after running the business → so what: this is a retailer with margins that look more like a software company.
$8.6B
long debt
Long-term debt is 14% of capital, which means leverage exists but is not the whole story behind the equity return.
22.6x
trailing p/e
Trailing P/E → price versus last 12 months of earnings → so what: you are paying up for consistency, not rescuing a broken stock.
Financial Health
B++
Strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 85 / 100
- long-term debt $8.6B (14% of capital)
- net profit margin 13.2% — keeps 13 cents of every dollar in revenue
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in AZO 3 years ago → it's now worth $13520.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
AutoZone printed $48.71 in quarterly EPS, below the $53.83 estimate, even as revenue climbed.
Latest quarterly revenue was $4.6B, up 8% vs. prior year, while EPS was $31.04, down 5%. Sales held up better than profit, which is what investors fixate on when a stock already trades at a premium.
$4.6B
revenue
$31.04
eps
51.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 9.51% earnings miss mattered most because high-quality retailers can survive slow growth, but premium multiples punish profit disappointments.
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Employs about 126,000.
-
Off. & dir. own 0.2% of common; vanguard group, 10.9%; blackrock, 7.7%; jpmorgan chase, 6.4% (10/25 proxy).
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Chrmn.: william rhodes; pres. & ceo: phil daniele.
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Inc.: nv.
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Addr.: 123 south front st., memphis, tn 38103.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The top risk is inventory-cost pressure hitting autozone's gross margin.
High
Gross margin compression
A single $59M LIFO charge cut gross margin by 137 basis points to 52.5%.
If that repeats, you are looking at another direct hit to gross profit on a business already priced for consistency.
Med
Buybacks leaning on debt
The company carries $8.6B in long-term debt while spending $311M in one quarter on repurchases.
That trade works when margins hold. It gets less comfortable if sales slow and borrowing costs stay high.
Med
Core-business concentration
Domestic retail still generates $16.8B, or 89% of revenue. Commercial is growing faster, but it is still only $1.7B.
If the domestic customer weakens, most of the income statement feels it before the faster segments are large enough to offset it.
The combined risk picture is simple: 89% of revenue sits in the mature domestic business, while a $59M inventory charge and $8.6B debt load show you do not have much room for operational sloppiness.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Earnings
Q3 fy2026 earnings
expected late may 2026. you want to see whether gross margin moves off 52.5% and whether the LIFO hit stays a one-quarter problem.
Margin
Gross margin recovery
137 basis points disappeared in one quarter. if that does not reverse, the premium multiple starts looking expensive.
Growth
Commercial mix
commercial grew 8.2% against 3.4% same-store growth in domestic retail. you want the faster business taking a larger share of sales.
Capital
Buyback pace versus debt
$311M went to repurchases in the quarter while long-term debt stands at $8.6B. good capital return is nice. overdoing it is not.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
95 / 100
in human-speak, analysts see a business that usually lands close to expectations.
risk rank
2
that places it among the safer stocks in the market. safer does not mean cheap. it means less fragile.
valuation tone
22.6x p/e
you are not paying a distress multiple. you are paying for a company that has earned investor trust.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 575 buyers vs. 507 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 15.0M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$2779
$4839
$3268
Current price
$3885
Target midpoint · +19% from current · 3-5yr high: $4470 (+35% · 8% ann'l return)
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