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what it is
AXT makes specialty semiconductor wafers and the raw materials that feed them.
how it gets paid
Last year Axt made $88M in revenue. indium phosphide substrates was the main engine at $0.68B, or 34% of sales.
what just happened
AXTI posted $65M in revenue, but EPS landed at -$0.41 and gross margin was 9.8%.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.1% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$0.27 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
xvary composite: 37/100 — weak
What they do
AXT makes specialty semiconductor wafers and the raw materials that feed them.
AXT makes the wafers, not the chips. Wafers → the thin material chips are built on → so your customer still needs AXT even when it designs its own silicon. It also makes some raw materials in-house, and 1,527 employees keep that niche machine running.
How they make money
$88M
annual revenue
indium phosphide substrates
$0.68B
gallium arsenide substrates
$0.56B
raw materials for internal use
$0.44B
raw materials sold to third parties
$0.32B
The products that matter
compound wafer supply
Indium Phosphide (InP) Wafers
$60M backlog · +82.8%
this is the growth engine. demand from AI optics and data centers built a $60M backlog, but Q4 revenue still fell to $23M because permits delayed shipments.
backlog-led
legacy substrate line
Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) Wafers
$28M · -44.7%
this segment still matters, but the numbers tell you where the center of gravity moved. a 44.7% decline is why AXTI needs InP to do more than just look promising.
under pressure
Key numbers
$2M
long-term debt
That is almost nothing for a public semiconductor company. You are not funding a rescue mission.
14.7%
operating margin
This shows the business can still turn revenue into operating profit before the quarter gets ugly.
7.1%
return on capital
That is the profit you get from the money tied up in the business. Higher is better, and this is not a home run.
2
beta
The stock moves about twice the market. Your calm is not part of the product.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $2M (0% of capital)
C++ — below average. watch for debt servicing and cash burn.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for AXTI right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
AXTI posted $65M in revenue, but EPS landed at -$0.41 and gross margin was 9.8%.
Latest quarter revenue rose 134% vs. prior year, but earnings stayed negative. That is growth without clean profit.
$65M
revenue
-$0.41
eps
9.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Revenue was $65M. That is the real test, because the company still lost money while selling more.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk is Chinese export permit delays on indium phosphide wafers. AXTI already showed you what that looks like: Q4 revenue slipped to $23M from $28M because shipments did not clear.
med
Chinese export permit delays
The company has a $60M InP backlog, but backlog does not help if shipments cannot leave. Q1 commentary is conditional on permits being awarded.
This risk already cut quarterly revenue to $23M from $28M. Another delay keeps the backlog theoretical and the income statement weak.
med
capacity expansion funding
Management cited a potential $100M–$150M need to double capacity again in 2027. Current cash and short-term investments are $120M.
That is the quiet part loud: the next growth step could consume most of the current cash balance and force financing if operating cash flow stays weak.
med
insider selling and stock volatility
The CEO sold 8,300 shares and a director sold 29,000 shares in March 2026, while the stock's 52-week range ran from $1 to $52.
That does not prove the thesis is broken. It does prove this name can swing on small signals because the holder base and sentiment are not stable.
Permit delays already reduced quarterly revenue by $5M, and a future $100M–$150M capacity bill sits against $120M in cash. That is a lot of execution risk for a company still expected to lose $0.27 this year.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
near-term catalyst
export permit resolution
Management pointed to late April 2026 as the window. If permits clear, backlog can start turning into reported revenue.
revenue
backlog conversion into shipments
The key question is not whether demand exists. The backlog is already $60M. The question is how much of it becomes sales in Q1 and Q2.
profitability
gross margin staying above 22.6%
Margins improved from 18.0% to 22.6%. If shipments resume and margin slips back, the recovery will look less valuable than the backlog suggests.
capital
any sign of financing for expansion
A $100M–$150M capacity build is manageable only if operations improve first. If funding discussions appear early, dilution risk moves from background noise to headline risk.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
30 / 100
In human-speak, the numbers can move around fast because permit timing and shipment timing do.
price stability
5 / 100
This is the opposite of a steady semiconductor compounder. The market treats it like an event-driven trade.
balance sheet grade
C++
Low debt helps, but below-average balance-sheet strength means you do not get much forgiveness if execution slips.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for AXTI is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$39
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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