Start here if you're new
what it is
Axogen sells surgical products that help doctors repair damaged peripheral nerves after injury or surgery.
how it gets paid
Last year Axogen made $225M in revenue. Avance Nerve Graft was the main engine at $158M, or 70% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 20.2% last year. Latest-quarter revenue was reported at $165M, up 175% vs. prior year, while EPS was -$0.06 and gross margin was 74.4%.
what just happened
Revenue hit $165M in the latest quarter, but Axogen still posted a loss and the market focused on profit quality.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
45/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$0.23 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
2.4% operating margin
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
Axogen sells surgical products that help doctors repair damaged peripheral nerves after injury or surgery.
Axogen wins because surgeons do not want to improvise when a nerve is cut. The company sells a focused repair toolkit across grafts, connectors, and protectors, and that helped lift annual revenue to $225M in 2025, up 20.2% vs. prior year. Gross margin was 74.4% in 2025, which means gross margin → money left after making the product → the products themselves are strong, even if the income statement still looks messy.
How they make money
$225M
annual revenue · their business grew +20.2% last year
Avance Nerve Graft
$158M
Axoguard Protector and HA+
$27M
Axoguard Connector
$23M
Avive+ Soft Tissue Matrix
$11M
Axotouch and other
$6M
The products that matter
processed human nerve tissue graft
Avance Nerve Graft
core repair platform
it sits inside a business that generated $225M in revenue last year and grew 21%. if axogen works, this is the product family doing most of the heavy lifting.
growth engine
surgical coaptation aid
Axoguard Nerve Connector
used across multiple procedure categories
management said all surgical markets delivered double-digit growth last quarter, and Q4 revenue reached $59.9M. that matters because it suggests demand is not isolated to one product line.
procedure leverage
Key numbers
74.4%
gross margin
Gross margin → money left after making the product → Axogen's products are premium enough to fund growth if costs stay controlled.
$225M
annual revenue
This is the real size of the business today, and it grew 20.2% vs. prior year according to EDGAR-backed figures.
2.4%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what, Axogen has almost no room for a bad quarter.
$66M
long-term debt
Debt is only 4% of capital, which means the balance sheet is not the main problem. Execution is.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $66M (4% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for AXGN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $165M in the latest quarter, but Axogen still posted a loss and the market focused on profit quality.
Latest-quarter revenue was reported at $165M, up 175% vs. prior year, while EPS was -$0.06 and gross margin was 74.4%. Contrast frame: 74.4% gross margin versus a negative EPS tells you the products work, but the cost structure still needs adult supervision.
$165M
revenue
$0.06
eps
74.4%
gross margin
the number that mattered
74.4% gross margin is the tell. Gross margin → money left after production → so what, Axogen has product strength, but it still has to prove that strength can survive below the gross-profit line.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is missing the 74–76% gross margin guide while trying to grow 18%.
med
gross margin misses the 74–76% target
When net margin is already -0.98%, even a modest gross margin disappointment matters. The company needs gross margin to expand, not drift, if it wants revenue growth to show up in earnings.
Miss here and the 18% revenue target starts to look like volume without leverage.
med
reported EPS stays messy
Q4 2025 reported EPS was -$0.28 against a -$0.14 estimate. That's a 50% miss. For a stock with 45/100 earnings predictability, one bad quarter is not fatal. A pattern is.
Another quarter like that would reinforce the view that profitability is still one quarter away, every quarter.
med
legal investigations become a lasting overhang
Multiple law firms began securities-fraud investigations in Sep–Oct 2025. Even if nothing material emerges, these situations can keep a discount on a $2B stock.
The business can execute and still see the multiple capped by legal noise.
med
the business grows, but the moat stays thin
Revenue grew 21% to $225M, but operating margin was only 1.8%. That gap tells you demand is ahead of economics.
If scale does not improve margins, this remains a procedure-growth story without premium economics.
At -0.98% net margin, axogen has almost no buffer. Missing the 74–76% gross margin guide while legal noise persists would keep this story dependent on faith in future scale.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the number that mattered
74–76% gross margin guidance
Revenue growth is the headline. Gross margin is the filter. If axogen hits this range while growing at least 18%, the earnings story gets a lot more credible.
calendar
next earnings report
Estimated for may 6, 2026. You want to see whether the 50% reported EPS miss was a one-off or the start of a habit.
risk
status of the legal probes
The Sep–Oct 2025 investigations may fade into background noise, or they may stick around long enough to matter for sentiment. Either way, you need resolution, not headlines.
trend
whether 21% demand growth keeps broadening
All four surgical markets on this page grew 21%. If that breadth holds, the demand side of the thesis is intact. If one category starts carrying the whole story, confidence drops.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
45 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not expect smooth quarters here. surprises come with the territory.
risk rank
1
this measure says the stock is safer than 95% of names in the database. That's balance-sheet comfort, not price calm.
price stability
10 / 100
translation: the business may be durable enough, but the stock is not going to make your nerves healthier.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for AXGN is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$35
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive