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what it is
Axos is an online bank that makes money on loans, deposits, and securities plumbing for brokers and advisers.
how it gets paid
Last year Axos Financial made $66M in revenue. service fees was the main engine at $24.4M, or 37% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 1.8% last year. The number is $2.22, because it shows Axos is still beating near-term expectations even while its longer-term growth rate cools.
what just happened
Axos just posted $2.22 in EPS, beating the $1.98 consensus by 12.12%.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
95/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
11.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
xvary composite: 71/100 — average
$7.95 fy2026 eps est
What they do
Axos is an online bank that makes money on loans, deposits, and securities plumbing for brokers and advisers.
Axos wins on cost. It runs $23.5 billion of assets with 1,989 employees, or about $11.8 million per worker, based on company data at 6/30/25. If you bank there, you get the part you care about, rates and speed, without paying for a branch lobby you never asked for.
How they make money
$66M
annual revenue · their business grew +1.8% last year
service fees
$24.4M
+2.0%
broker-dealer fee income
$19.8M
+8.0%
prepayment penalty fees
$9.2M
6.0%
securities clearing fees
$7.9M
+10.0%
other noninterest income
$4.6M
0.0%
The products that matter
consumer and commercial lending
Banking
core earnings engine
this is the part that turns a branchless model into numbers: 23.4% net margin and 16% return on equity do not happen by accident in banking.
core
brokerage and clearing
Securities
fee-based support
fee income matters because the stock trades at 11.5x earnings, and anything that makes results less dependent on rate spreads helps that discount look too low.
diversifier
digital delivery platform
Online Platform
cost advantage
the online-only setup is the operating story. you can see it in the 23.4% margin, which runs above the 15–18% range cited for many mid-cap banks.
cost edge
Key numbers
$110
18-month target
That is about 28% above $86.01. In plain English, the upside case says you are paying a low price for a bank still expected to earn $7.95 this fiscal year.
11.5x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → what you pay for each dollar of profit. At 11.5 times, Axos trades cheaper than a lot of growth-branded financial stocks.
16%
return on equity
Return on equity → profit on shareholder money → how hard your capital is working. Sixteen percent says the bank is still generating solid returns.
95
earnings predictability
A 95 score says profits have been unusually steady for a lender. That matters because you are buying earnings, not a logo.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- net profit margin 23.4% — keeps 23 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AX 3 years ago → it's now worth $23,730.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Axos just posted $2.22 in EPS, beating the $1.98 consensus by 12.12%.
Quarterly earnings keep moving up, with fiscal 2025 EPS at $7.50 versus $6.74 in fiscal 2024. The bigger issue now is pace: the long-term 17.5% earnings growth record is slowing to a 6.0% projection.
$66M
ttm revenue
$2.22
latest eps
12.12%
eps surprise
the number that mattered
The number is $2.22, because it shows Axos is still beating near-term expectations even while its longer-term growth rate cools.
-
axos financial's formerly rapid growth pace is moderating.
-
nothing is wrong with first-quarter (year ends june 30th) earnings edging above the tough comparison the prior year, nor the earlier quarter's 7.6% vs. prior year advance.
-
however, when seen in light of the prior year's 11.3% gain and the average annual 21% pace over the past 10 years, a slowing trend appears to be emerging.historically, axos has done a good job of taking advantage of its unique positions in both the financial and banking businesses by cross selling between them. but axos appears to have largely utilized this advantage, and, under a normal economy, we look for axos to maintain this recently more moderate growth pace over the next few years.
-
further prospects for growth and diversity remain, but so do risks.commercial real estate has had sizable vacancy rates since covid-19, which is still a concern to banks holding large portions of their loans in the sector.
-
combined, multifamily & commercial mortgage, commercial real estate, and the commercial & industrial loans account for 78% of axos' loans.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is credit quality deterioration in the loan book.
high
loan portfolio credit risk
axos is still a lender first. if borrowers stop paying, the income statement takes the hit fast. a cheap multiple does not protect you from bad credit marks.
credit losses could erase 20–40% of net income in a downturn
med
interest rate sensitivity
banks live on the spread between what they pay for funding and what they earn on loans. if rates fall or deposit costs stay high, that spread gets squeezed.
NIM compression of 25–50bps could pressure earnings 10–15%
med
deposit stickiness under stress
a branchless bank wins on cost, but customers can also move money fast. if depositors demand higher rates or leave, axos has to replace that funding at a worse price.
deposit outflows during banking stress could force costlier funding alternatives
a 25–50bp hit to spread income or a 20–40% hit to net income is enough to explain why AX sits at 11.5x earnings instead of a premium multiple.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
net interest margin trend
this is the heartbeat of the bank. if spread income widens, 11.5x earnings looks too low. if it narrows, the discount has a point.
risk
loan loss provisions
watch the reserve build each quarter. rising provisions are the earliest clean signal that the loan book is getting worse.
calendar
next quarterly earnings
the $7.95 EPS estimate is the number to beat. you want to see deposit stability and steady profitability, not just accounting noise.
trend
institutional selling streak
two straight quarters of net selling is not fatal. a third would tell you large holders still do not trust the rerating.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
95 / 100
in human-speak, analysts see a bank whose earnings usually show up where expected.
price stability
30 / 100
the business may look steady, but the stock is not. you are buying decent fundamentals with a jumpier tape.
risk rank
3
that puts AX around the middle of the pack on overall risk. safer than a lot of stocks, but not a bunker.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 173 buyers vs. 177 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 45.8M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$65
$154
$86
current price
$110
target midpoint · +28% from current · 3-5yr high: $125 (+45% · 10% ann'l return)
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