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what it is
Mission Produce grows, buys, and ships avocados, plus a little blueberries and mangos, to stores around the world.
how it gets paid
Last year Mission Produce made $1.4B in revenue. Marketing & Distribution was the main engine at $980M, or 70% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 12.7% last year. 11.3% gross margin means the company kept $11.30 of every $100 of sales after direct costs.
what just happened
The latest quarter brought in $279M of revenue and a -$0.01 EPS.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
22.5x trailing p/e — priced about right
5.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.53 fy2025 eps est
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
Mission Produce grows, buys, and ships avocados, plus a little blueberries and mangos, to stores around the world.
Mission controls the fruit chain from orchard to store. That beats buying on the spot market, where prices jump like a bad taxi meter. You get 3,100 employees, a global distribution network, and $1.4B of annual sales behind one crop-heavy machine.
How they make money
$1.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +12.7% last year
Marketing & Distribution
$980M
+10.0%
International Farming
$190M
+15.0%
Blueberries
$110M
+8.0%
Value-added Services
$70M
+12.0%
Other Fruit
$50M
0.0%
The products that matter
core sourcing and distribution
Fresh Avocados
$1.2B · about 86% of revenue
this is the center of gravity. volume grew 14% last quarter, but a 30% price drop still pushed quarterly revenue down 17%. same quarter. opposite directions. the commodity mattered more.
the main bet
smaller produce diversification
Mangoes & Blueberries
$190M · about 14% of revenue
this $190M segment is useful because it gives you some revenue outside avocados. it is not large enough to rescue the quarter when the main fruit turns on you.
small cushion
pending scale transaction
Calavo acquisition
$430M deal · 80.3% ownership
if the deal closes by August 2026 as expected, you own a bigger produce platform. if it slips or proves messy to absorb, you are left with the same thin-margin story plus one more thing to explain.
deal risk
Key numbers
$1.4B
annual revenue
That is the size of the whole fruit machine. The business still grows at 12.7% a year, even with ugly crop swings.
$183M
long-term debt
Debt equal to 18% of capital is not a disaster, but it makes bad pricing years less forgiving.
7.6%
operating margin
Operating margin is the profit left after normal business costs. At 7.6%, every $100 of sales leaves $7.60 before taxes.
5.5%
return on capital
Return on capital shows how hard the business works your money. At 5.5%, this is a low-gear business.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $183M (18% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for AVO right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The latest quarter brought in $279M of revenue and a -$0.01 EPS.
Revenue fell 17% from a year ago, while gross margin held at 11.3%. That says pricing pressure hit faster than costs moved.
$279M
revenue
$0.01
eps
11.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
11.3% gross margin means the company kept $11.30 of every $100 of sales after direct costs. In a commodity business, that is thin.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the main risk is not abstract. it already happened. avocado pricing tied to Mexican supply fell 30% in a quarter, and that was enough to overpower 14% volume growth and push Mission into a $0.7M loss.
med
Avocado price volatility
Fresh Avocados produce about $1.2B of revenue, or roughly 86% of the business. When pricing moves hard, the whole model feels it because the company still depends on one category for most of the sales base.
Last quarter gave you the cleanest example possible: 14% volume growth was not enough when pricing fell 30%.
med
Calavo deal execution
The $430M acquisition is the biggest strategic swing on this page. If the close slips past August 2026, the terms worsen, or the combined company proves harder to run than advertised, the scale case gets weaker in public.
You would own a more complicated produce platform without clear proof that extra size improves earnings power.
med
Leadership handoff
Founder Steve Barnard steps down as CEO in April 2026. A transition is manageable when the business is steady. Mission is doing it during a rough pricing stretch and a pending acquisition.
The market will judge the new leadership team on execution fast, because there is no spare margin to hide behind.
med
Thin margin structure
An 11.3% gross margin and 5.5% return on capital leave less room for mistakes than the word consumer might suggest. This is a lower-margin distribution business, not a branded food company printing easy economics.
Small operating misses matter more when the starting cushion is already thin.
Between avocado pricing, a CEO transition, and a $430M acquisition, this is a produce story with real moving parts. If you held through the last quarter, you already know the downside does not need a recession or a balance-sheet scare. A bad pricing setup is enough.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
pricing
Avocado price versus volume
This is the number pair that runs the whole page. You already saw 14% volume growth lose to a 30% price drop. If pricing stabilizes, the story looks very different.
deal clock
Calavo close by August 2026
If the $430M deal closes on schedule, the scale story moves from promise to operating reality. If it slips, you should expect harder questions from the market.
margins
Whether 11.3% gross margin holds
Margin improved by 190 basis points last quarter. That matters because the business does not have a giant cushion. If that progress fades, earnings get thin again fast.
leadership
The April 2026 CEO handoff
A founder transition during a commodity swing and pending acquisition is not background noise. It is part of the thesis now, whether you like management transitions or not.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
25 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not expect smooth quarters here. crop pricing and produce mix can move the numbers faster than management can smooth them out.
risk rank
2
that score says balance-sheet risk looks better than earnings volatility. you worry about uneven results first, distress second.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for AVO is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$12
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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