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what it is
AvalonBay owns, builds, and runs large apartment communities in 12 states and Washington, D.C.
how it gets paid
Last year Avalonbay Comm made $7M in revenue. stabilized apartment communities was the main engine at $6.59M, or 94% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.6% last year. The 8.59% EPS miss is the key figure because this stock already trades at 23.7x trailing earnings.
what just happened
AvalonBay posted $1.17 EPS versus a $1.28 estimate, a miss of 8.59%.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
70/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
23.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
4.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 63/100 — average
What they do
AvalonBay owns, builds, and runs large apartment communities in 12 states and Washington, D.C.
AvalonBay wins by owning 305 apartment communities with 95,520 homes in expensive coastal markets where new supply is hard to add. That scale lets it keep occupancy near 96%, which means most units stay full and your rent machine keeps humming. REIT → a real estate company that must pay out most taxable income → so what: you get a 4.1% dividend yield while you wait.
How they make money
$7M
annual revenue · their business grew -0.6% last year
stabilized apartment communities
$6.59M
communities under construction
$0.39M
redevelopment communities
$0.02M
other real estate activity
$0.00M
The products that matter
apartment leasing and operations
Established communities
$2.8B · 95% of revenue
this portfolio is the business. it generated $2.8B of rental income and stayed 96% occupied, which is why even slow rent growth still matters a lot.
96% occupied
new apartment development
Development pipeline
$0.10 · core FFO/share help in 2026
the pipeline is supposed to add $0.10 to core FFO per share in 2026. in human-speak: it helps, but it does not rescue a slow leasing year on its own.
incremental boost
Key numbers
96%
portfolio occupancy
Occupancy → how full the buildings are → so what: full buildings protect rent collections and keep cash flow steadier.
23.7x
trailing p/e
P/E → price divided by earnings → so what: you are paying a premium multiple for a business with mixed momentum.
4.1%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → annual cash payout on today's price → so what: a big part of your return here arrives as income, not hype.
$217
fair value
One published 18-month appraisal sits $39.21 above the current $177.79 price, which is the clean upside case in one number.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- net profit margin 39.5% — keeps 40 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AVB 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,700.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
AvalonBay posted $1.17 EPS versus a $1.28 estimate, a miss of 8.59%.
The miss matters because operating conditions were not collapsing. Occupancy stayed near 96% and rental rates still moved slightly higher, but that was not enough to clear expectations.
$5M
revenue
$1.17
eps
63.14%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 8.59% EPS miss is the key figure because this stock already trades at 23.7x trailing earnings, leaving less room for disappointment.
-
avalonbay communities continues to make measured progress, despite a mixed operating environment.for much of the past year, concerns about the economy and labor market have put downward pressure on the apartment sector.
-
in addition, overbuilding in some regions has created competition.
-
to its credit, avalonbay has been able to lift rental rates slightly.
-
too, occupancy has stayed near 96%, which has stabilized the portfolio.
-
avalonbay’s properties are quite desirable, and the reit does a good job retaining tenants.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is multifamily rental antitrust lawsuits tied to pricing practices.
med
Antitrust and pricing scrutiny
AVB disclosed ongoing multifamily rental antitrust lawsuits in its 2025 10-K. This is specific, not theoretical.
If pricing practices are forced to change, the risk reaches the $2.8B rental-income base that carries the business.
med
Slow rent growth with no backup engine
Initial 2026 guidance calls for 1.4% revenue growth. Occupancy is near 96%, so the portfolio is full. That means outsized upside has to come from pricing, not vacant units filling up.
If rent growth stays weak, the stock leans even harder on the 4.1% yield and the $1B buyback to do the work.
med
Local oversupply in competitive markets
Industry commentary points to overbuilding and affordability pressure in some regions. High occupancy across the portfolio helps, but market-by-market softness still matters for a landlord.
A few weaker submarkets can pressure lease pricing even when headline occupancy still looks fine.
the legal risk targets pricing tied to the $2.8B rental engine. the operating risk is simpler: 1.4% growth leaves little room for mistakes.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
Expected on April 29, 2026. You want to see whether the Q4 miss was a one-quarter stumble or the new pace.
growth
2026 revenue guide
Management's starting point is 1.4% revenue growth. Any cut from there would hit the whole thesis.
capital return
$1B buyback program
The authorization is active with no stated expiration date. At this valuation, execution matters more than the headline.
legal
antitrust lawsuit progress
Watch for any update on multifamily pricing litigation. This is the one risk on the page that directly challenges how rent gets set.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
70 / 100
in human-speak, analysts see a fairly stable landlord, but not one immune to estimate misses when rent growth gets thin.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
344 buyers vs. 351 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$156
$278
$178
current price
$217
target midpoint · +22% from current · 3-5yr high: $330 (+85% · 20% ann'l return)
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