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what it is
Avista sells electricity and natural gas to homes and businesses across parts of Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Alaska.
how it gets paid
Last year Avista made $2.0B in revenue. Residential electric and gas was the main engine at $0.72B, or 36% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 1.3% last year. Consensus showed a 15.38% EPS miss. At the same time.
what just happened
Avista's latest report was a miss, with EPS at $0.88 versus a $1.04 estimate, even as revenue hit $1.4 billion.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
75/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
15.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
4.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Avista sells electricity and natural gas to homes and businesses across parts of Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Alaska.
This is a local monopoly with wires and pipes already in the ground. Avista serves 422,000 electric customers and 383,000 gas customers, which means your utility bill usually stays with them unless you move. Rate base → the assets regulators let a utility earn money on → so what: once those assets are approved, Avista gets a pretty steady shot at earning on them.
How they make money
$2.0B
annual revenue · their business grew +1.3% last year
Residential electric and gas
$0.72B
Commercial
$0.58B
Wholesale
$0.42B
Industrial
$0.18B
Other
$0.10B
The products that matter
regulated electricity and gas delivery
Regulated utility operations
$2.0B revenue · 36% residential · 29% commercial
this is the core business. it drives the full $2.0B revenue base, with 36% tied to residential customers and 29% to commercial demand. the quiet part: this is steady because people keep the lights on, not because the company found a hidden growth lane.
the core
power sold into broader markets
Wholesale energy
$420M revenue · 21% of sales
this piece contributes $420M, or 21% of revenue. it matters because wholesale pricing tends to move faster than the regulated side. that makes it useful, but also less sleepy than the rest of the story.
margin swing factor
generation fuel mix
Gas, coal and hydro generation
$860M gas & coal · $880M hydro
these two generation buckets add up to $1.74B. when fuel mix and generation costs move, regulators and customers eventually care too. that's why a utility can look stable on the surface and still have cost pressure underneath.
cost pressure zone
Key numbers
4.9%
cash payout
Dividend yield → cash paid to you each year as a share of the stock price → so what: at 4.9%, your income does most of the work here.
$2.8B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: $2.8 billion is large next to a roughly $3 billion market cap.
15.1x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by past earnings → so what: you are not paying a crazy price, but you are also not getting fast growth.
18.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the business → so what: 18.0% is solid for a utility, but regulation caps how wild it can get.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 2 — safer than 80% of stocks
- price stability 95 / 100
- long-term debt $2.8B (48% of capital)
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — risk rank looks solid but long-term debt needs watching.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in AVA 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,160.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Avista's latest report was a miss, with EPS at $0.88 versus a $1.04 estimate, even as revenue hit $1.4 billion.
Consensus showed a 15.38% EPS miss. At the same time, EDGAR data showed quarterly revenue of $1.4 billion, up 255% vs. prior year, which tells you the headline sales number looked better than the profit delivery.
$1.4B
revenue
$0.88
eps
18.0%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the 15.38% EPS miss, because this stock is owned for predictability and it just failed the predictability test.
-
avista corporation posted solid third-quarter bottom-line results.
-
share earnings increased more than 56% vs. prior year, to $0.36, reflecting strong operational execution, favorable regulatory outcomes, better customer load growth, and disciplined cost management.
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the near-term share-profit picture remains positive.management reaffirmed its 2025 per-share earnings outlook of $2.52 to $2.72, with avista utilities expected to contribute toward the upper end of its $2.43 to $2.61 range.
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this expectation is supported by continued cost discipline and supportive regulatory decisions.in all, we project share earnings to grow at a low-teen rate in 2025, to $2.55, before moderating to a high-single-digit pace in 2026, to $2.75.
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ongoing rate relief and steady customer growth should help offset cost headwinds.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the main risk is washington and idaho rate case outcomes. in this business, regulators do not just influence returns. they set the ceiling on them.
med
rate decisions cap the whole thesis
this is a regulated utility, so rate cases are not background noise. they are the business model. if allowed returns disappoint, Avista still has the same poles, pipes, and costs — just with less earnings power attached.
The business produces $2.0B in revenue and only 8% return on equity. There is not much excess profitability to absorb a weak ruling.
med
debt keeps funding costs relevant
$2.8B of long-term debt equals 48% of capital. That is workable for a utility, but it leaves less room if financing costs stay high or capital spending rises faster than recovery approvals do.
you are not looking at a balance-sheet crisis. you are looking at a business where interest expense matters because revenue only grew 1.3%.
med
defensive demand does not guarantee a good stock
utilities sell essentials, which makes revenue defensive. It does not make the shares automatically attractive. AVA turned $10,000 into $10,160 over 3 years, while the index reached $14,770.
if earnings keep moving slowly and the multiple stays around 15.1x, you are owning stability more than upside.
these risks sit on top of a $2.0B revenue base, $2.8B in long-term debt, and an 8% return on equity. that is a workable setup for a utility, but it leaves little room for regulatory mistakes.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
whether $2.75 still looks reachable
the current 2026 EPS estimate is $2.75. if quarterly results stop building from 2025's $2.55, the steady-compounder case gets thinner fast.
regulation
the next rate decision
rate relief is the lever that matters most. this is one of those businesses where paperwork can matter more than product launches.
metric
return on equity above 8%
8% return on equity is acceptable, not exciting. if that number does not improve, it is hard to argue this deserves more than a utility multiple.
trend
whether institutional buying gets real
three quarters of net buying sounds constructive. 170 buyers versus 167 sellers sounds less dramatic. watch whether that gap widens into conviction or stays statistical wallpaper.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts do not expect AVA to outrun most stocks in the next 12 months.
risk profile
above average
stability score 2 — safer than roughly 80% of stocks. not risk-free, just lower drama.
chart momentum
top 5%
technical score 1 is the strongest ranking. the chart looks better than the growth profile.
earnings predictability
75 / 100
predictability means fewer earnings surprises. if you want drama, buy something else.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 170 buyers vs. 167 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 68.4M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$33
$50
$38
current price
$42
target midpoint · +9% from current · 3-5yr high: $65 (+70% · 18% ann'l return)
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