Start here if you're new
what it is
Atmos delivers natural gas to 3.4 million customers across six regulated utility systems, mostly to homes and businesses.
how it gets paid
Last year Atmos Energy made $4.7B in revenue. Residential gas sales was the main engine at $3.23B, or 69% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 12.9% last year. Quarterly revenue rose 14% vs. prior year, while EPS climbed 9%.
what just happened
Latest quarter revenue hit $1.3B and EPS reached $2.44, with both up vs. prior year.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
100/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
23.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.5% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 70/100 — average
What they do
Atmos delivers natural gas to 3.4 million customers across six regulated utility systems, mostly to homes and businesses.
Atmos wins because your gas bill is not a shopping decision. It serves 3.4 million customers through regulated pipes, and regulators usually let it earn a set return when it invests in that network. Regulated utility → government-approved monopoly territory → so what: you get steadier earnings, which helps explain 23 straight years of EPS growth.
How they make money
$4.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +12.9% last year
Residential gas sales
$3.23B
Commercial gas sales
$1.28B
Industrial gas sales
$0.14B
Other gas sales
$0.06B
The products that matter
delivers and sells natural gas
Regulated Natural Gas Distribution
$4.7B revenue · 100% of the business
it's the entire company. all $4.7B of revenue and all 3.4M customer relationships run through this regulated network.
the whole story
customer base and service territories
Utility Territories
3.4M customers · six utilities
the customer count matters because utilities compound through captive demand and approved investment, not flashy product launches.
scale
regulated capital deployment
Rate Base Growth
30.7% margin · 10% roe
this is the quiet part. the business earns more when it invests in pipes and service assets that regulators allow it to recover through customer bills.
where growth comes from
Key numbers
23 years
eps streak
Earnings per share → profit split across shares → so what: Atmos has increased that figure for 23 straight years, which is rare even in utilities.
33.2%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Atmos keeps about $0.33 from each revenue dollar before interest and taxes.
25%
debt capital
Long-term debt as a share of capital → how leveraged the company is → so what: $9.6B of debt equals 25% of capital, which is restrained for a utility.
100/100
price calm
Price stability → how little the stock tends to thrash around → so what: this trades more like infrastructure than a typical stock.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 100 / 100
- long-term debt $9.6B (25% of capital)
- net profit margin 32.9% — keeps 33 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ATO 3 years ago → it's now worth $16,120.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest quarter revenue hit $1.3B and EPS reached $2.44, with both up vs. prior year.
Quarterly revenue rose 14% vs. prior year, while EPS climbed 9%. Atmos also affirmed fiscal 2026 EPS guidance of $8.15 to $8.35, which matches the steady-utility script investors pay for.
$1.3B
revenue
$2.44
eps
33.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The important number was $2.44 in quarterly EPS because it kept Atmos on track for about $8.15 for fiscal 2026.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is regulators refusing full recovery of pipeline and distribution spending.
med
rate-case pressure
Atmos only wins if commissions let it earn on the money it puts into the system. If rate decisions lag or disallow recovery, the monopoly is still intact but the earnings engine slows.
All $4.7B of revenue comes from regulated operations. That's focus, and concentration, in the same sentence.
med
debt and rate sensitivity
The balance sheet is good, but $9.6B of long-term debt is still $9.6B of long-term debt. Higher financing costs squeeze returns on future infrastructure spending.
Debt equals 25% of capital. If capital gets more expensive, allowed returns matter more.
med
limited growth ceiling
A 23.0x trailing p/e asks you to pay up for stability. The catch is that utilities do not outrun their regulators for long. If growth settles back toward the sector norm, that multiple has less room to expand.
The stock already sits near the top of its $136–$175 52-week range. You are not buying obvious pessimism.
Between the $4.7B regulated revenue base and $9.6B debt load, the real risk is not competition. It is getting less return on the same infrastructure spend.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
earnings growth staying above the utility stereotype
Full-year EPS rose 9%. If that pace fades while the multiple stays rich, your upside narrows fast.
risk
rate-case language and cost recovery
This is where the quiet part shows up. Watch for any sign regulators are less willing to pass infrastructure costs through to customers.
calendar
next earnings release
For a 100/100 predictability stock, the numbers matter less than management's read on capital spending and allowed returns.
trend
institutional flow after three net-buying quarters
466 buyers versus 324 sellers is support. If that flips while the stock stays near its high, pay attention.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts do not expect this to outrun most stocks from here.
risk profile
safest 5%
stability score 1 — lower risk than almost any stock you can buy.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is fine, but it is not screaming for your attention.
earnings predictability
100 / 100
management has earned the benefit of the doubt. These results tend to show up close to plan.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 466 buyers vs. 324 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$152
$238
$171
current price
$195
target midpoint · +14% from current · 3-5yr high: $210 (+20% · 8% ann'l return)
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