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what it is
Aspen Aerogels makes ultra-light insulation that keeps industrial equipment hot or cold, and helps EV batteries avoid turning into expensive campfires.
how it gets paid
Last year Aspen Aerogels made $271M in revenue. EV battery barriers was the main engine at $118.8M, or 44% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 40.1% last year. The company posted annual revenue of $271M, down 40.1% vs. prior year, even as the latest quarter surged 215%.
what just happened
Revenue hit $230M, but EPS crashed to -$3.85, which tells you growth and profitability are still living in different zip codes.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
4.6% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.39 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
xvary composite: 46/100 — below average
What they do
Aspen Aerogels makes ultra-light insulation that keeps industrial equipment hot or cold, and helps EV batteries avoid turning into expensive campfires.
This business wins when failure is costly. Aspen's materials are already used by ExxonMobil, TechnipFMC, and BASF, and switching costs (changing suppliers mid-project) are painful because insulation gets designed into the asset. You are buying a company with 554 employees selling into projects where one thermal mistake can cost far more than the insulation bill.
How they make money
$271M
annual revenue · their business grew -40.1% last year
Energy Industrial
$102.2M
29.9%
EV battery barriers
$118.8M
48.7%
Building materials
$27.1M
40.1%
Transportation and other
$22.9M
40.1%
The products that matter
EV battery thermal barrier
PyroThin
$169M · 62% of revenue · -45% from last year
it is the main business at $169M, but the main business is shrinking. integration into European EV platforms helps once production starts. it did not stop a 45% revenue drop.
62% of revenue
industrial insulation for energy infrastructure
Spaceloft
$102M · 38% of revenue · -30% from last year
this legacy insulation business brought in $102M after falling from $146M. it was supposed to be the steadier base. a 30% drop says even the base is moving.
legacy base
Key numbers
$2.0B
2026 revenue goal
The 2026 revenue estimate is about 7.4 times the latest $271M annual revenue, so your whole thesis depends on an extreme scale-up actually happening.
$115M
long-term debt
Debt equals 28% of capital, which matters more when your market cap is only about $302M and your stock volatility is 2.05 beta.
-139.5%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business; plain English, Aspen lost money on operations, so what: growth alone does not fix this story.
4.6%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit earned on the money invested in the business; plain English, Aspen is generating thin returns, so what: the ramp still needs to prove itself.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $115M (28% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for ASPN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $230M, but EPS crashed to -$3.85, which tells you growth and profitability are still living in different zip codes.
The company posted annual revenue of $271M, down 40.1% vs. prior year, even as the latest quarter surged 215%. Gross margin was 30.0%, but the business is still far from stable earnings power.
$230M
revenue
$3.85
eps
30.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was $230M in quarterly revenue, because it proves demand can spike fast even while profits remain ugly.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is EV battery demand staying too weak to absorb PyroThin capacity — because the supposed growth engine already fell 45% to $169M and the legacy insulation business is not covering the gap.
high
revenue contraction keeps accelerating
Annual revenue fell 40% to $271M. The more recent quarterly number was -66.4% from a year ago. If that pace continues, fixed costs get heavier and every balance sheet question gets louder.
$182M of annual revenue disappeared
high
losses plus debt can force dilution
Management guided Q1 2026 to a loss of $0.24–$0.28 per share while long-term debt sits at $115M. If losses keep widening, the company may need outside capital. At a $302M market cap and $3.54 share price, that is not gentle math for existing holders.
$115M debt against a shrinking revenue base
med
the legacy business is not acting defensive
Energy industrial revenue fell 30% to $102M. That matters because the old business was supposed to provide ballast while EV demand normalized. Instead, both sides of the company are moving the wrong way at once.
38% of revenue also declined sharply
med
analyst estimates may still be behind reality
A $0.39 full-year EPS estimate is still in the data while management is guiding near-term losses. That gap can close through better execution. It can also close through estimate cuts. Small caps usually do not enjoy the second version.
earnings models still look exposed to downgrades
a weak EV recovery would hit 62% of revenue directly, and the remaining 38% already fell 30%. If both businesses stay under pressure, the real issue is not valuation — it is how long the capital structure remains comfortable.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
next earnings
Q1 2026 earnings — expected May 14, 2026
Management already guided to a loss of $0.24–$0.28 per share. If results come in worse, the balance-sheet conversation gets louder. If they come in better, you have the first real sign that estimates were reset low enough.
the metric to track
recent quarterly revenue change
-66.4% is the number doing the damage. You do not need instant growth. You need less bad. A move from -66.4% toward -40% would at least suggest the floor is forming.
balance sheet watch
any sign of new financing
With $115M in long-term debt and guided losses, watch for equity issuance, new debt, or amended credit terms. None of those are fatal on their own. All of them would tell you the turnaround is taking longer than planned.
business mix
whether EV battery stops shrinking faster than legacy insulation
EV battery is 62% of revenue and fell 45%. Energy industrial is 38% and fell 30%. The bull case needs that ordering to flip. Until then, the growth business is still the bigger drag.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
in human-speak: analysts do not have a clean handle on the earnings path here, and the recent miss plus weak guide explain why.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for ASPN is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$4
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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