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what it is
Academy sells sporting goods and outdoor gear through 298 stores in 19 states.
how it gets paid
Last year Academy Sports made $5.9B in revenue. Footwear was the main engine at $1.5B, or 26% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 253.8% last year. Also, academy has appointed new board members with expertise in digital transformation and ai capabilities.
what just happened
Revenue hit $4.3B, but EPS landed at $1.05 versus $1.07 expected.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
80/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
9.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Academy sells sporting goods and outdoor gear through 298 stores in 19 states.
298 stores across 19 states give you a local box on the corner, not a lonely website. Outdoor, Apparel, Sports and Rec., and Footwear each account for at least 20% of revenue, so one bad shelf does not sink the whole business. 22,000 employees keep those 298 stores running.
How they make money
$5.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +253.8% last year
Outdoor
$1.5B
Apparel
$1.5B
Sports and Rec.
$1.4B
Footwear
$1.5B
The products that matter
sporting goods and outdoor retail
Sporting Goods & Outdoor Gear
$5.9B revenue · +4.2% growth
it's the entire $5.9B business, and it grew 4.2% last year. there is no hidden high-margin side business here — you are underwriting store execution.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$72
target price
This is 32% above $54.73, so the upside only matters if earnings stay near $6.45.
9.4x
trailing p/e
You pay 9.4 times earnings for a retailer with a 14.0% operating margin. Cheap and profitable beats cheap and messy.
14.0%
operating margin
On $6.0B of forecast sales, that margin implies about $840M in operating profit.
1.1%
dividend yield
You get $1.10 a year for every $100 invested. This is a growth and valuation story, not an income story.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $481M (12% of capital)
- net profit margin 7.3% — keeps 7 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in ASO 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,850.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $4.3B, but EPS landed at $1.05 versus $1.07 expected.
Sales were still up 213% vs. prior year, and gross margin held at 35.3%. The miss was small at $0.02 per share, or 1.87% below estimates.
$4.3B
revenue
$1.05
eps
35.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $0.02 EPS miss mattered more than the big revenue print because the stock already trades at 9.4x earnings.
-
shares of academy sports have risen roughly 20% in value over the last month.this move is in direct contrast to the malaise the quotation was in the previous few months, likely the result of a soso showing in the october period (year ends on the saturday closest to january 31st).
-
regardless, the retail space in general got a boost from the most recent interest rate cut from the federal reserve.
-
the hope is that this action will stimulate consumer spending.also, academy has appointed new board members with expertise in digital transformation and ai capabilities.
-
the new blood has also resulted in a wave of optimism.
-
that said, the stock price still only sits where it did at the time of our mid-october missive, even with the aforementioned surge.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a consumer spending slowdown in sporting goods and outdoor gear.
med
discretionary demand risk
100% of ASO's $5.9B revenue comes from a discretionary retail category. if shoppers pull back on sports, outdoor, and recreation purchases, there is nowhere else in the model to hide.
sales softness would pressure the entire $5.9B revenue base
high
margin compression from promotions
a 6.6% net margin leaves less room for mistakes than the low P/E suggests. if inventory gets heavy and management has to discount harder, earnings can fall faster than revenue.
a 1-point margin hit on $5.9B of revenue is roughly $59M of profit
med
low-growth trap
revenue grew 4.2% last year, and the FY2026 estimate is only $6B versus $5.9B last year. if growth stays this muted, the market may be right to keep the multiple low.
cheap stocks stay cheap when growth stalls
this is a one-segment retailer that keeps 6.6 cents of profit on each sales dollar. a weaker consumer or a modest margin slip would show up fast.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
earnings versus the $6.45 estimate
that forecast implies recovery from $5.85 in full-year 2025. if academy misses it, the "cheap" case gets weaker fast.
trend
revenue growth staying above zero
last year revenue grew 4.2%, and the FY2026 estimate only nudges to $6B. you need evidence this business can do more than tread water.
risk
margin discipline
with a 6.6% net margin, promotions matter. watch whether profitability improves with sales, or gets given back at the register.
flow
institutional selling streak
institutions were net sellers for three straight quarters. if that flips, sentiment may be catching up to valuation.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts see a stock behaving normally rather than breaking out.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical risk for an individual stock. not a bunker stock, not chaos either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the recent bounce helped, but the chart still looks more ordinary than decisive.
earnings predictability
80 / 100
management's numbers have been reasonably dependable. that matters when the whole case rests on a few dollars of EPS.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 167 buyers vs. 181 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 75.2M shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$39
$104
$55
current price
$72
target midpoint · +32% from current · 3-5yr high: $85 (+55% · 12% ann'l return)
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